Language:English
Daniil Medvedev v Hugo Gaston
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Daniil Medvedev (Local)
Prediction 85.09%1.18fair odd
EV -2.99%
Edge -2.63%
Kelly -21.39%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.96%85.11%85.00%86.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.111.121.1492.59%89.86%89.69%87.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Hugo Gaston (Visit)
Prediction 14.91%6.71fair odd
EV +4.35%
Edge +0.621%
Kelly +0.725%
Growth +0.032%
assuming max odds 7.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.37%14.89%15.00%17.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.406.507.0018.18%15.62%15.38%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Daniil Medvedev (Local): 85.09%; Hugo Gaston (Visit): 14.91%. For Hugo Gaston (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.71. 18 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.35%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -8.10%E -7.50%K -101.24%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +4.35%E +0.621%K +0.725%G +0.032% | 6.9% | 2026-08-29 11:03 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.97%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.03%EV +1.37%E +0.201%K +0.236%G +0.003% | 4.8% | 2026-08-30 13:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +0.622%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001% | 5.7% | 2026-08-30 17:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +0.622%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001% | 5.7% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +0.622%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001% | 5.7% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +0.622%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001% | 5.7% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +0.622%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001% | 5.7% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +0.622%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001% | 5.7% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +0.622%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001% | 5.7% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +0.622%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001% | 5.7% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +0.622%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001% | 5.7% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +0.622%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001% | 5.7% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +0.622%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001% | 5.7% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +0.622%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001% | 5.7% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +0.622%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001% | 5.7% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +0.622%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001% | 5.7% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +0.622%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001% | 5.7% | 2026-08-30 16:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.61%EV -3.84%E -3.40%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 6.72I 14.88%NM 14.39%EV +0.175%E +0.026%K +0.031%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-30 17:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%EV -0.123%E -0.018%K -0.022%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 05:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.48%EV -3.84%E -3.40%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 6.65I 15.04%NM 14.52%EV -0.869%E -0.131%K -0.154%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-30 11:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.48%EV -3.84%E -3.40%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 6.65I 15.04%NM 14.52%EV -0.869%E -0.131%K -0.154%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-30 11:14 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.51%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000% | 6.55I 15.27%NM 14.49%EV -2.36%E -0.360%K -0.425%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 10:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 85.08%EV -2.99%E -2.63%K -21.39%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.92%EV -3.10%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-30 11:20 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.19%EV -3.84%E -3.40%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.81%EV -3.10%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-30 15:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.19%EV -3.84%E -3.40%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.81%EV -3.10%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-30 11:14 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -3.10%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-30 17:50 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -3.10%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-30 11:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -3.10%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-29 09:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -3.10%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-30 05:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -3.10%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-30 05:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -3.10%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-30 09:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -3.10%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-30 09:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -3.10%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-30 11:19 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -7.25%E -6.65%K -80.54%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -3.10%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -8.10%E -7.50%K -101.24%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -3.10%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.22%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV -4.60%E -0.718%K -0.851%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-30 17:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.91%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 15.09%EV -6.09%E -0.966%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-30 11:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -6.83%E -1.09%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 11:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -6.83%E -1.09%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 05:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -6.83%E -1.09%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 05:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -6.83%E -1.09%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-30 11:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -6.83%E -1.09%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-30 05:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.78%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000% | 6.24I 16.03%NM 15.22%EV -6.98%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 17:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -7.58%E -1.22%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 11:19 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -7.58%E -1.22%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 11:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -7.58%E -1.22%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.93%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.07%EV -7.58%E -1.22%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -3.84%E -3.40%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 11:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 11:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 05:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 05:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 05:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 05:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 11:14 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 07:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 11:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-30 07:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-30 15:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.48%EV -2.99%E -2.63%K -21.39%G +0.000% | 5.76I 17.36%NM 16.52%EV -14.14%E -2.45%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-30 17:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -3.84%E -3.40%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -14.29%E -2.48%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -3.84%E -3.40%K -29.58%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -18.01%E -3.27%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-30 16:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 87.09% | 7.69I 13.00%NM 12.91% | 0.7% | 2026-08-30 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 86.23% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77% | 0.8% | 2026-08-30 17:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 86.23% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77% | 0.8% | 2026-08-30 17:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 86.23% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77% | 0.8% | 2026-08-30 17:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 86.23% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77% | 0.8% | 2026-08-30 17:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 86.23% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77% | 0.8% | 2026-08-30 17:51 |
| Novig◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 86.67% | 7.41I 13.50%NM 13.33% | 1.2% | 2026-08-30 17:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 86.43% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.57% | 2.4% | 2026-08-30 17:50 |