Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Daniil Medvedev v Hugo Gaston

Início: 2026-08-30 17:58 UTC

Final: Daniil Medvedev 3–0 Hugo Gaston

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

62 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Daniil Medvedev (Local)

Previsão 85.09%1.18odd justa
EV -2.99%
Vantagem -2.63%
Kelly -21.39%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.14

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
82.96%85.11%85.00%86.63%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.081.111.121.1492.59%89.86%89.69%87.72%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Hugo Gaston (Visitante)

Previsão 14.91%6.71odd justa
EV +4.35%
Vantagem +0.621%
Kelly +0.725%
Crescimento +0.032%

pressupondo odds máximas de 7.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
13.37%14.89%15.00%17.04%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
5.506.406.507.0018.18%15.62%15.38%14.29%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Daniil Medvedev (Local): 85.09%; Hugo Gaston (Visitante): 14.91%. Para Hugo Gaston (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 6.71. 18 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 7.00, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +4.35%.

Odds das casas de apostas (62 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
Caesars🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -8.10%E -7.50%K -101.24%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV +4.35%E +0.621%K +0.725%G +0.032%6.9%2026-08-29 11:03
FanDuel🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.97%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.03%EV +1.37%E +0.201%K +0.236%G +0.003%4.8%2026-08-30 13:09
TABtouch🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +0.622%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001%5.7%2026-08-30 17:05
Grosvenor🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +0.622%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001%5.7%2026-08-30 16:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +0.622%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001%5.7%2026-08-30 16:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +0.622%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001%5.7%2026-08-30 16:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +0.622%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001%5.7%2026-08-30 16:55
BetRivers🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +0.622%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001%5.7%2026-08-30 16:55
Unibet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +0.622%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001%5.7%2026-08-30 16:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +0.622%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001%5.7%2026-08-30 16:55
betPARX🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +0.622%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001%5.7%2026-08-30 16:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +0.622%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001%5.7%2026-08-30 16:55
Casumo🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +0.622%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001%5.7%2026-08-30 16:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +0.622%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001%5.7%2026-08-30 16:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +0.622%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001%5.7%2026-08-30 16:55
Bally Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +0.622%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001%5.7%2026-08-30 16:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV +0.622%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001%5.7%2026-08-30 16:54
Pinnacle🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 85.61%EV -3.84%E -3.40%K -29.58%G +0.000%6.72I 14.88%NM 14.39%EV +0.175%E +0.026%K +0.031%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-30 17:05
SportsBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%EV -0.123%E -0.018%K -0.022%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-30 05:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 85.48%EV -3.84%E -3.40%K -29.58%G +0.000%6.65I 15.04%NM 14.52%EV -0.869%E -0.131%K -0.154%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-30 11:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 85.48%EV -3.84%E -3.40%K -29.58%G +0.000%6.65I 15.04%NM 14.52%EV -0.869%E -0.131%K -0.154%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-30 11:14
GTbets🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.51%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000%6.55I 15.27%NM 14.49%EV -2.36%E -0.360%K -0.425%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 10:29
Coolbet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 85.08%EV -2.99%E -2.63%K -21.39%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.92%EV -3.10%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-30 11:20
ReBet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 85.19%EV -3.84%E -3.40%K -29.58%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.81%EV -3.10%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-30 15:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 85.19%EV -3.84%E -3.40%K -29.58%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.81%EV -3.10%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-30 11:14
Bovada🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -3.10%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-30 17:50
betano_uk🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -3.10%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-30 11:15
BoyleSports🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -3.10%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-29 09:30
Coral🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -3.10%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-30 05:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -3.10%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-30 05:50
Paddy Power🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -3.10%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-30 09:10
Sky Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -3.10%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-30 09:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -3.10%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 11:19
NetBet (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -7.25%E -6.65%K -80.54%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -3.10%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 17:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -8.10%E -7.50%K -101.24%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -3.10%E -0.478%K -0.565%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-30 16:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.22%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV -4.60%E -0.718%K -0.851%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 17:50
Fanatics🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.91%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 15.09%EV -6.09%E -0.966%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 11:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -6.83%E -1.09%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-30 11:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -6.83%E -1.09%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-30 05:50
Neds🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -6.83%E -1.09%K -1.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-30 05:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -6.83%E -1.09%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 11:14
BetMGM🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -6.83%E -1.09%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 05:49
DraftKings🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.78%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000%6.24I 16.03%NM 15.22%EV -6.98%E -1.12%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-30 17:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -7.58%E -1.22%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 11:19
MyBookie.ag🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -7.58%E -1.22%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 11:25
BetAnything🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -7.58%E -1.22%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 17:55
Fliff🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.93%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -63.98%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.07%EV -7.58%E -1.22%K -1.46%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 17:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -3.84%E -3.40%K -29.58%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 17:55
LeoVegas🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 11:19
Unibet (UK)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 11:15
888sport🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 05:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 05:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 05:45
William Hill🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 05:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 11:14
betfred_uk🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 07:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 11:14
Betway🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.70%E -4.19%K -39.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 07:10
theScore Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.55%E -5.00%K -50.42%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -10.56%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-30 15:50
1xBet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.48%EV -2.99%E -2.63%K -21.39%G +0.000%5.76I 17.36%NM 16.52%EV -14.14%E -2.45%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-30 17:50
PlayUp🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -3.84%E -3.40%K -29.58%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -14.29%E -2.48%K -3.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-30 16:55
TAB🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -3.84%E -3.40%K -29.58%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -18.01%E -3.27%K -4.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-30 16:54
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (8)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Kalshi◎1.14I 87.72%NM 87.09%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.91%0.7%2026-08-30 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.15I 86.96%NM 86.23%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77%0.8%2026-08-30 17:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.15I 86.96%NM 86.23%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77%0.8%2026-08-30 17:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.15I 86.96%NM 86.23%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77%0.8%2026-08-30 17:40
Matchbook◎1.15I 86.96%NM 86.23%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77%0.8%2026-08-30 17:40
ProphetX◎1.15I 86.96%NM 86.23%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.77%0.8%2026-08-30 17:51
Novig◎1.14I 87.72%NM 86.67%7.41I 13.50%NM 13.33%1.2%2026-08-30 17:50
Smarkets◎1.13I 88.50%NM 86.43%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.57%2.4%2026-08-30 17:50