Language:English
Daniil Medvedev v Frances Tiafoe
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Daniil Medvedev (Local)
Prediction 60.61%1.65fair odd
EV -0.598%
Edge -0.365%
Kelly -0.934%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.64
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.27%60.75%60.61%62.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.581.571.6466.67%63.45%63.69%60.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Frances Tiafoe (Visit)
Prediction 39.39%2.54fair odd
EV +0.442%
Edge +0.173%
Kelly +0.285%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 2.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.44%39.25%39.39%41.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.282.402.382.5543.86%41.71%42.02%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Daniil Medvedev (Local): 60.61%; Frances Tiafoe (Visit): 39.39%. For Frances Tiafoe (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.54. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.442%.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -6.66%E -4.32%K -12.33%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV +0.442%E +0.173%K +0.285%G +0.001% | 4.2% | 2026-09-06 18:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -7.27%E -4.75%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV +0.442%E +0.173%K +0.285%G +0.001% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 19:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.56%EV -7.87%E -5.18%K -15.14%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.44%EV +0.048%E +0.019%K +0.031%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-06 19:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.07%EV -3.02%E -1.89%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 2.51I 39.84%NM 38.93%EV -1.13%E -0.452%K -0.751%G +0.000% | 2.3% | 2026-09-06 18:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -3.63%E -2.28%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -1.53%E -0.611%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-06 19:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -3.63%E -2.28%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -1.53%E -0.611%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-06 19:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.27%EV -4.23%E -2.68%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.73%EV -1.53%E -0.611%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -5.45%E -3.49%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -1.53%E -0.611%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-06 19:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.27%E -4.75%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -1.53%E -0.611%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-06 19:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.27%E -4.75%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -1.53%E -0.611%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-06 19:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -7.27%E -4.75%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -1.53%E -0.611%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-06 19:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -9.08%E -6.06%K -18.17%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -1.53%E -0.611%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-06 19:17 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -2.42%E -1.50%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -3.50%E -1.43%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.84%E -3.08%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.50%E -1.43%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-06 15:46 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -5.45%E -3.49%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -3.50%E -1.43%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-06 18:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.30%EV -3.02%E -1.89%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.70%EV -4.28%E -1.76%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-06 17:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -3.63%E -2.28%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -4.28%E -1.76%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-06 17:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.06%EV -6.05%E -3.91%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.94%EV -4.28%E -1.76%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-06 19:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.71%EV -5.45%E -3.49%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.29%EV -5.07%E -2.10%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-06 19:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.02%E -1.89%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -5.47%E -2.28%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-06 10:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.02%E -1.89%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -5.47%E -2.28%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-06 17:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.63%E -2.28%K -6.15%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -5.47%E -2.28%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-06 15:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.23%E -2.68%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -5.47%E -2.28%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-06 19:24 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.23%E -2.68%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -5.47%E -2.28%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-06 17:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.84%E -3.08%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.47%E -2.28%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-06 11:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.84%E -3.08%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.47%E -2.28%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-06 11:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.45%E -3.49%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.47%E -2.28%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 19:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.45%E -3.49%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.47%E -2.28%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 11:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.05%E -3.91%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.47%E -2.28%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-06 17:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.05%E -3.91%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.47%E -2.28%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-06 19:25 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.05%E -3.91%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.47%E -2.28%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-06 18:40 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.84%E -3.08%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.25%E -2.63%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-06 11:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.84%E -3.08%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.25%E -2.63%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-06 10:44 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.84%E -3.08%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.25%E -2.63%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-06 10:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.84%E -3.08%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.25%E -2.63%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-06 13:24 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.84%E -3.08%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.25%E -2.63%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.84%E -3.08%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.25%E -2.63%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-06 10:44 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.84%E -3.08%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.25%E -2.63%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-06 10:44 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.46%EV -6.05%E -3.91%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -6.65%E -2.81%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-06 11:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.46%EV -6.05%E -3.91%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -6.65%E -2.81%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-06 11:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -7.27%E -4.75%K -13.71%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -6.65%E -2.81%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-06 17:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.20%EV -5.45%E -3.49%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 39.80%EV -7.04%E -2.98%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-06 17:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.20%EV -5.45%E -3.49%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 39.80%EV -7.04%E -2.98%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-06 17:29 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -2.42%E -1.50%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -7.44%E -3.16%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-06 15:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.23%E -2.68%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -7.44%E -3.16%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-06 19:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -4.84%E -3.08%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.44%E -3.16%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-06 15:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -4.84%E -3.08%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.44%E -3.16%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-06 19:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -5.45%E -3.49%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -7.44%E -3.16%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-06 19:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -2.42%E -1.50%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -8.22%E -3.53%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-06 15:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -2.42%E -1.50%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -8.22%E -3.53%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-06 15:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -2.42%E -1.50%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -8.22%E -3.53%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-06 15:46 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -2.42%E -1.50%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -8.22%E -3.53%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-06 15:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -2.42%E -1.50%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -8.22%E -3.53%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-06 15:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -2.42%E -1.50%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -8.22%E -3.53%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-06 15:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -2.42%E -1.50%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -8.22%E -3.53%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-06 15:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -2.42%E -1.50%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -8.22%E -3.53%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-06 15:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -2.42%E -1.50%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -8.22%E -3.53%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-06 15:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -2.42%E -1.50%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -8.22%E -3.53%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-06 15:46 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -2.42%E -1.50%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -8.22%E -3.53%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-06 15:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -2.42%E -1.50%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -8.22%E -3.53%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-06 15:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -2.42%E -1.50%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -8.22%E -3.53%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-06 15:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -2.42%E -1.50%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -8.22%E -3.53%K -6.18%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-06 15:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.27%EV -0.598%E -0.365%K -0.934%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.73%EV -9.80%E -4.28%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.38%EV -5.45%E -3.49%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%EV -10.19%E -4.47%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-06 15:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.79% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 38.21% | -0.1% | 2026-09-06 19:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.94% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 38.06% | 0.3% | 2026-09-06 19:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.09% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91% | 0.7% | 2026-09-06 19:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.09% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91% | 0.7% | 2026-09-06 19:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.09% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.91% | 0.7% | 2026-09-06 19:26 |
| Novig◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61% | 1.2% | 2026-09-06 19:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.54% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.46% | 1.6% | 2026-09-06 19:30 |