Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Daniil Medvedev v Arthur Rinderknech

2026-09-04 15:00 UTC — ATP US Open

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Daniil Medvedev (Local)

Predicción 70.67%1.42momio equitativo
EV -2.48%
Ventaja -1.80%
Kelly -6.53%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.38

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
68.81%70.59%70.72%72.49%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.291.341.351.3877.52%74.70%74.07%72.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Arthur Rinderknech (Visitante)

Predicción 29.33%3.41momio equitativo
EV -0.262%
Ventaja -0.077%
Kelly -0.109%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.51%29.41%29.28%31.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.953.203.253.4033.90%31.28%30.77%29.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Daniil Medvedev (Local): 70.67%; Arthur Rinderknech (Visitante): 29.33%. Para Arthur Rinderknech (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.41. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 3.40, con un valor esperado de -0.262%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.48%E -1.80%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -10.53%E -3.45%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 20:56
Neds🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.48%E -1.80%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -10.53%E -3.45%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-02 20:55
Coolbet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.97%EV -3.19%E -2.33%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.03%EV -1.73%E -0.516%K -0.736%G +0.000%2.8%2026-09-02 22:54
1xBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.63%EV -3.90%E -2.86%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.37%EV -4.08%E -1.25%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-03 00:30
Betway🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.90%E -2.86%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -4.66%E -1.43%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-02 21:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.90%E -2.86%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -4.66%E -1.43%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-02 22:55
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.90%E -2.86%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -9.06%E -2.92%K -4.32%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-02 20:56
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.90%E -2.86%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -9.06%E -2.92%K -4.32%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-02 21:05
PlayUp🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.90%E -2.86%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -9.06%E -2.92%K -4.32%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 00:20
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.90%E -2.86%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -9.06%E -2.92%K -4.32%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-02 21:20
TAB🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.90%E -2.86%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -12.00%E -4.00%K -6.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 21:26
Caesars🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.90%E -2.86%K -10.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -12.00%E -4.00%K -6.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 04:30
Unibet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.60%E -3.41%K -13.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -4.66%E -1.43%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 22:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.60%E -3.41%K -13.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -4.66%E -1.43%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 22:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.60%E -3.41%K -13.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -4.66%E -1.43%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 22:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.60%E -3.41%K -13.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -4.66%E -1.43%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 22:55
Casumo🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.60%E -3.41%K -13.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -4.66%E -1.43%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 22:55
TABtouch🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.60%E -3.41%K -13.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -4.66%E -1.43%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 22:55
BetRivers🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.60%E -3.41%K -13.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -4.66%E -1.43%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 22:55
Grosvenor🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.60%E -3.41%K -13.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -4.66%E -1.43%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 22:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.60%E -3.41%K -13.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -4.66%E -1.43%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 22:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.60%E -3.41%K -13.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -4.66%E -1.43%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 22:55
Bally Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.60%E -3.41%K -13.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -4.66%E -1.43%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 22:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.60%E -3.41%K -13.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -4.66%E -1.43%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 22:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.60%E -3.41%K -13.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -4.66%E -1.43%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 22:55
betPARX🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.60%E -3.41%K -13.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -4.66%E -1.43%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-02 22:55
Bovada🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.60%E -3.41%K -13.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -4.66%E -1.43%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-03 02:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -4.60%E -3.41%K -13.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -12.00%E -4.00%K -6.00%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-02 20:56
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -4.60%E -3.41%K -13.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -12.00%E -4.00%K -6.00%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-02 21:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -5.31%E -3.96%K -15.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -4.66%E -1.43%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-02 21:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.61%EV -5.31%E -3.96%K -15.61%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.39%EV -5.54%E -1.72%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-03 00:29
Betr (AU)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -5.31%E -3.96%K -15.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -6.13%E -1.92%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 03:25
FanDuel🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -6.02%E -4.52%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -0.262%E -0.077%K -0.109%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-03 00:20
BoyleSports🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -6.02%E -4.52%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -0.262%E -0.077%K -0.109%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-03 03:45
DraftKings🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.02%EV -6.02%E -4.52%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.98%EV -4.37%E -1.34%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-03 02:29
betfred_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -6.02%E -4.52%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -4.66%E -1.43%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 21:00
Fanatics🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -6.02%E -4.52%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -4.66%E -1.43%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 21:15
Sky Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -6.02%E -4.52%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -4.66%E -1.43%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-03 00:15
MyBookie.ag🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.77%EV -6.02%E -4.52%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.23%EV -5.54%E -1.72%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-02 21:25
betano_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -6.02%E -4.52%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -6.13%E -1.92%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-03 02:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -6.02%E -4.52%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -7.60%E -2.41%K -3.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 21:20
Fliff🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -6.02%E -4.52%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -7.60%E -2.41%K -3.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 00:20
LeoVegas🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.63%EV -6.02%E -4.52%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.37%EV -10.53%E -3.45%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-03 03:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -6.72%E -5.09%K -21.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -3.20%E -0.968%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 02:46
Tipico (DE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -6.72%E -5.09%K -21.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -3.20%E -0.968%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-02 22:00
Betsson🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.05%EV -6.72%E -5.09%K -21.01%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.95%EV -4.96%E -1.53%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-03 02:55
NordicBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.05%EV -6.72%E -5.09%K -21.01%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.95%EV -4.96%E -1.53%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-03 02:55
theScore Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -6.72%E -5.09%K -21.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -6.13%E -1.92%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 21:15
PMU (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -6.72%E -5.09%K -21.01%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -7.60%E -2.41%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-02 22:55
GTbets🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.98%EV -8.14%E -6.26%K -27.12%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.02%EV -2.02%E -0.605%K -0.864%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 21:05
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -8.14%E -6.26%K -27.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -3.20%E -0.968%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 00:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -8.14%E -6.26%K -27.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -12.00%E -4.00%K -6.00%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-02 21:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -8.14%E -6.26%K -27.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -12.00%E -4.00%K -6.00%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-02 21:20
ReBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -8.14%E -6.26%K -27.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -12.00%E -4.00%K -6.00%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-02 21:19
SportsBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -8.84%E -6.85%K -30.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -0.262%E -0.077%K -0.109%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 21:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.58%EV -8.84%E -6.85%K -30.49%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.42%EV -13.46%E -4.56%K -6.90%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-02 21:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.41I 70.92%NM 70.38%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%0.8%2026-09-02 23:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.41I 70.92%NM 70.38%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%0.8%2026-09-02 23:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.41I 70.92%NM 70.38%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62%0.8%2026-09-02 23:00
Kalshi1.39I 71.94%NM 71.28%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72%0.9%2026-09-03 03:36
Matchbook1.40I 71.43%NM 70.53%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47%1.3%2026-09-03 03:50
Novig1.37I 72.99%NM 71.58%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.0%2026-09-03 05:15
ProphetX1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%5.3%2026-09-03 05:00