Language:English
Brandon Nakashima v Sebastian Baez
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Brandon Nakashima (Local)
Prediction 84.59%1.18fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -2.36%
Kelly -18.11%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.84%84.67%84.58%86.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.071.121.121.1593.46%89.50%89.29%86.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sebastian Baez (Visit)
Prediction 15.41%6.49fair odd
EV +7.84%
Edge +1.12%
Kelly +1.31%
Growth +0.102%
assuming max odds 7.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.58%15.33%15.42%17.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.556.326.207.0018.02%15.82%16.13%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brandon Nakashima (Local): 84.59%; Sebastian Baez (Visit): 15.41%. For Sebastian Baez (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.49. 22 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.84%.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.95%E -6.31%K -69.46%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +7.84%E +1.12%K +1.31%G +0.102% | 5.2% | 2026-08-31 12:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.95%E -6.31%K -69.46%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +7.84%E +1.12%K +1.31%G +0.102% | 5.2% | 2026-08-31 12:36 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.95%E -6.31%K -69.46%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +7.84%E +1.12%K +1.31%G +0.102% | 5.2% | 2026-08-31 12:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.95%E -6.31%K -69.46%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +7.84%E +1.12%K +1.31%G +0.102% | 5.2% | 2026-08-31 12:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.95%E -6.31%K -69.46%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +7.84%E +1.12%K +1.31%G +0.102% | 5.2% | 2026-08-31 12:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.95%E -6.31%K -69.46%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +7.84%E +1.12%K +1.31%G +0.102% | 5.2% | 2026-08-31 12:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.95%E -6.31%K -69.46%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +7.84%E +1.12%K +1.31%G +0.102% | 5.2% | 2026-08-31 12:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.95%E -6.31%K -69.46%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +7.84%E +1.12%K +1.31%G +0.102% | 5.2% | 2026-08-31 12:36 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.95%E -6.31%K -69.46%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +7.84%E +1.12%K +1.31%G +0.102% | 5.2% | 2026-08-31 12:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.95%E -6.31%K -69.46%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +7.84%E +1.12%K +1.31%G +0.102% | 5.2% | 2026-08-31 12:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.95%E -6.31%K -69.46%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +7.84%E +1.12%K +1.31%G +0.102% | 5.2% | 2026-08-31 12:36 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.95%E -6.31%K -69.46%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +7.84%E +1.12%K +1.31%G +0.102% | 5.2% | 2026-08-31 12:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.95%E -6.31%K -69.46%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +7.84%E +1.12%K +1.31%G +0.102% | 5.2% | 2026-08-31 12:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.95%E -6.31%K -69.46%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +7.84%E +1.12%K +1.31%G +0.102% | 5.2% | 2026-08-31 12:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.95%E -6.31%K -69.46%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +7.84%E +1.12%K +1.31%G +0.102% | 5.2% | 2026-08-31 12:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.32%EV -9.48%E -8.86%K -135.49%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV +3.99%E +0.591%K +0.694%G +0.028% | 8.3% | 2026-08-31 12:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 85.14%EV -3.56%E -3.12%K -25.45%G +0.000% | 6.53I 15.31%NM 14.86%EV +0.599%E +0.092%K +0.108%G +0.001% | 3.0% | 2026-08-31 18:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 85.08%EV -3.56%E -3.12%K -25.45%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.92%EV +0.136%E +0.021%K +0.025%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-31 19:10 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.19%EV -4.41%E -3.90%K -33.91%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.81%EV +0.136%E +0.021%K +0.025%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-31 15:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.19%EV -4.41%E -3.90%K -33.91%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.81%EV +0.136%E +0.021%K +0.025%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-31 15:04 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.19%EV -4.41%E -3.90%K -33.91%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.81%EV +0.136%E +0.021%K +0.025%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-31 19:04 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -6.95%E -6.31%K -69.46%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV +0.136%E +0.021%K +0.025%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-31 15:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.92%EV -3.56%E -3.12%K -25.45%G +0.000% | 6.42I 15.58%NM 15.08%EV -1.10%E -0.171%K -0.202%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-31 12:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.22%EV -6.10%E -5.50%K -55.46%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV -1.40%E -0.219%K -0.260%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-31 19:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.22%EV -6.10%E -5.50%K -55.46%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV -1.40%E -0.219%K -0.260%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.14%EV -6.95%E -6.31%K -69.46%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.86%EV -2.94%E -0.467%K -0.556%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-31 19:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -4.41%E -3.90%K -33.91%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -3.71%E -0.594%K -0.708%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-31 15:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.25%E -4.69%K -43.79%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.71%E -0.594%K -0.708%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-31 17:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -5.25%E -4.69%K -43.79%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -3.71%E -0.594%K -0.708%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-31 19:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.03%EV -6.95%E -6.31%K -69.46%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.97%EV -3.71%E -0.594%K -0.708%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-31 03:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.47%EV -3.56%E -3.12%K -25.45%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.53%EV -4.49%E -0.723%K -0.863%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.47%EV -3.56%E -3.12%K -25.45%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.53%EV -4.49%E -0.723%K -0.863%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.58%EV -4.41%E -3.90%K -33.91%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.42%EV -4.49%E -0.723%K -0.863%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-30 11:14 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -5.25%E -4.69%K -43.79%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -4.49%E -0.723%K -0.863%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-31 15:04 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -5.25%E -4.69%K -43.79%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -4.49%E -0.723%K -0.863%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-31 15:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.58%EV -6.10%E -5.50%K -55.46%G +0.000% | 6.09I 16.42%NM 15.42%EV -6.18%E -1.01%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-31 15:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.58%EV -6.10%E -5.50%K -55.46%G +0.000% | 6.09I 16.42%NM 15.42%EV -6.18%E -1.01%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-31 15:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.26%EV -4.41%E -3.90%K -33.91%G +0.000% | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.74%EV -6.80%E -1.12%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-30 16:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -3.56%E -3.12%K -25.45%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -7.57%E -1.26%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-29 18:56 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.41%E -3.90%K -33.91%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.57%E -1.26%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-29 21:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.41%E -3.90%K -33.91%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -7.57%E -1.26%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.25%E -4.69%K -43.79%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.57%E -1.26%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-31 19:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.25%E -4.69%K -43.79%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.57%E -1.26%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-31 19:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.25%E -4.69%K -43.79%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.57%E -1.26%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-31 19:11 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.25%E -4.69%K -43.79%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.57%E -1.26%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-31 13:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.25%E -4.69%K -43.79%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.57%E -1.26%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-31 04:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.25%E -4.69%K -43.79%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.57%E -1.26%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-31 15:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.25%E -4.69%K -43.79%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.57%E -1.26%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-31 13:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.25%E -4.69%K -43.79%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.57%E -1.26%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-31 13:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.25%E -4.69%K -43.79%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.57%E -1.26%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-29 21:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.25%E -4.69%K -43.79%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.57%E -1.26%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-31 13:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.25%E -4.69%K -43.79%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.57%E -1.26%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-31 15:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.25%E -4.69%K -43.79%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -7.57%E -1.26%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-31 08:35 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -6.10%E -5.50%K -55.46%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -7.57%E -1.26%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-31 15:06 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.28%EV -6.10%E -5.50%K -55.46%G +0.000% | 5.95I 16.81%NM 15.72%EV -8.34%E -1.40%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-31 19:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.93%EV -4.41%E -3.90%K -33.91%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.07%EV -9.11%E -1.54%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-31 12:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -4.41%E -3.90%K -33.91%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -11.42%E -1.99%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-31 18:25 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -4.41%E -3.90%K -33.91%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -11.42%E -1.99%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-31 14:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -5.25%E -4.69%K -43.79%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -11.42%E -1.99%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-31 14:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -5.25%E -4.69%K -43.79%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -11.42%E -1.99%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-31 14:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -3.56%E -3.12%K -25.45%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -13.73%E -2.45%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-31 14:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -3.56%E -3.12%K -25.45%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -13.73%E -2.45%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-31 14:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.84%EV -2.72%E -2.36%K -18.11%G +0.000% | 5.55I 18.02%NM 17.16%EV -14.50%E -2.61%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 87.25% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.75% | 0.5% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 87.25% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.75% | 0.5% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 87.25% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.75% | 0.5% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 87.25% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.75% | 0.5% | 2026-08-31 19:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.61% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 14.39% | 0.7% | 2026-08-31 18:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 86.13% | 7.14I 14.01%NM 13.87% | 1.0% | 2026-08-31 15:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 86.65% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35% | 1.2% | 2026-08-31 19:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.06% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.94% | 1.7% | 2026-08-31 19:10 |