Idioma:Español
Arthur Fery v Lorenzo Musetti
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Arthur Fery (Local)
Predicción 25.39%3.94momio equitativo
EV +4.36%
Ventaja +1.06%
Kelly +1.40%
Crecimiento +0.061%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.11
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.61%25.31%25.45%26.65%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.553.753.754.1128.17%26.67%26.67%24.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Lorenzo Musetti (Visitante)
Predicción 74.61%1.34momio equitativo
EV -3.75%
Ventaja -2.91%
Kelly -12.95%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.29
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
73.35%74.69%74.55%76.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.251.271.271.2980.00%78.59%78.74%77.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Arthur Fery (Local): 25.39%; Lorenzo Musetti (Visitante): 74.61%. Para Arthur Fery (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.94. 4 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.11, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +4.36%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (63 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.11I 24.33%NM 23.61%EV +4.36%E +1.06%K +1.40%G +0.061% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.39%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-01 20:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24%EV +1.56%E +0.391%K +0.521%G +0.008% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.76%EV -4.50%E -3.52%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-01 20:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV +1.56%E +0.391%K +0.521%G +0.008% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-01 20:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV +0.294%E +0.075%K +0.100%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -5.99%E -4.76%K -23.05%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-01 20:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -0.975%E -0.250%K -0.336%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -6.74%E -5.39%K -26.95%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 20:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -2.24%E -0.583%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -4.50%E -3.52%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-01 19:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -2.24%E -0.583%K -0.788%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -4.50%E -3.52%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-01 19:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.95%EV -3.01%E -0.787%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.05%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-01 20:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-01 19:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 20:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 20:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 20:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 20:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 20:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 20:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 20:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 20:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 20:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 20:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 20:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 20:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 20:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 20:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 19:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.74%E -5.39%K -26.95%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-01 19:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.78I 26.46%NM 24.85%EV -4.02%E -1.06%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.15%EV -6.74%E -5.39%K -26.95%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-01 20:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.78%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-01 20:10 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.78%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-01 20:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.78%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-01 19:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.78%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-01 20:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.78%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-01 19:25 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.78%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-01 20:18 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -4.78%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 20:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -4.78%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.99%E -4.76%K -23.05%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-01 20:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -4.78%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.99%E -4.76%K -23.05%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-01 20:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -4.78%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.74%E -5.39%K -26.95%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-01 16:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -4.78%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.74%E -5.39%K -26.95%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-01 16:05 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -4.78%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.74%E -5.39%K -26.95%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-01 20:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.50%EV -5.04%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.50%EV -4.50%E -3.52%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-01 20:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.45%EV -5.55%E -1.49%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.55%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 20:20 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -6.05%E -1.64%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-01 20:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -6.05%E -1.64%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.50%E -3.52%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-01 14:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -6.05%E -1.64%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.50%E -3.52%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-01 14:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -6.05%E -1.64%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.50%E -3.52%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-01 20:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -6.05%E -1.64%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 20:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -6.05%E -1.64%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -5.99%E -4.76%K -23.05%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-01 20:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -6.05%E -1.64%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -6.74%E -5.39%K -26.95%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-01 14:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -6.05%E -1.64%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -6.74%E -5.39%K -26.95%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-01 14:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -6.05%E -1.64%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -6.74%E -5.39%K -26.95%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-01 20:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.51%EV -6.56%E -1.78%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.49%EV -5.99%E -4.76%K -23.05%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-01 20:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -7.32%E -2.01%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -4.50%E -3.52%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-01 20:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -7.32%E -2.01%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -4.50%E -3.52%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-01 20:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.64I 27.47%NM 25.87%EV -7.58%E -2.08%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.13%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-01 20:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.64I 27.47%NM 25.87%EV -7.58%E -2.08%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.13%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-01 20:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -8.59%E -2.39%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 14:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -8.59%E -2.39%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 14:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -8.59%E -2.39%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 14:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -8.59%E -2.39%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 14:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -8.59%E -2.39%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 20:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -8.59%E -2.39%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -4.50%E -3.52%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 14:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -8.59%E -2.39%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -4.50%E -3.52%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 20:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -8.59%E -2.39%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.99%E -4.76%K -23.05%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-01 19:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -9.86%E -2.78%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-01 20:10 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (8)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.15% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.85% | 0.3% | 2026-09-01 20:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.15% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.85% | 0.3% | 2026-09-01 20:20 |
| Novig◎ | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.87% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 77.13% | 0.5% | 2026-09-01 20:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.64% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.36% | 0.7% | 2026-09-01 20:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 0.9% | 2026-09-01 20:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 0.9% | 2026-09-01 20:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.60% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.40% | 1.7% | 2026-09-01 20:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.12% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.88% | 2.7% | 2026-09-01 20:20 |