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Francisco Cerundolo v Jakub Mensik
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Francisco Cerundolo (Local)
Prediction 41.44%2.41fair odd
EV +1.95%
Edge +0.791%
Kelly +1.33%
Growth +0.026%
assuming max odds 2.46
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.96%41.30%41.44%42.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.282.252.4646.51%43.91%44.44%40.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jakub Mensik (Visit)
Prediction 58.56%1.71fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -3.30%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.67
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.29%58.70%58.56%61.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.611.621.6764.52%61.97%61.73%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Francisco Cerundolo (Local): 41.44%; Jakub Mensik (Visit): 58.56%. For Francisco Cerundolo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.41. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.46, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.95%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.96%EV +1.95%E +0.791%K +1.33%G +0.026% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.04%EV -8.06%E -5.14%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-11 07:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV +0.704%E +0.290%K +0.492%G +0.003% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -8.65%E -5.54%K -15.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 07:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -0.540%E -0.225%K -0.385%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-11 07:41 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -0.540%E -0.225%K -0.385%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-11 07:41 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -0.540%E -0.225%K -0.385%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -8.06%E -5.14%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 07:01 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.39I 41.84%NM 40.84%EV -0.954%E -0.399%K -0.686%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.16%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-10-11 05:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -1.37%E -0.575%K -0.992%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.06%E -5.14%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-11 07:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -1.37%E -0.575%K -0.992%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.06%E -5.14%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-11 07:01 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -2.61%E -1.11%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.72%E -3.55%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-11 07:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -4.27%E -1.85%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-11 07:35 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -4.27%E -1.85%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%EV -2.79%E -1.68%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-11 07:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-10 13:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-11 05:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-10 18:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.72%E -3.55%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-11 07:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-11 07:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-11 05:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -7.48%E -4.73%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-11 07:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -8.06%E -5.14%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-11 07:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -8.06%E -5.14%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-11 07:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -8.06%E -5.14%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-11 07:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -8.06%E -5.14%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-11 07:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -4.68%E -2.04%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -9.23%E -5.96%K -16.79%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-11 05:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -5.10%E -2.23%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -4.55%E -2.79%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 23:24 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -6.76%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.21%E -1.32%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-11 05:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.76%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.38%E -2.05%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-10 18:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.76%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.96%E -2.42%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 18:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.76%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.96%E -2.42%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 18:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.76%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.96%E -2.42%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 18:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.76%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.96%E -2.42%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 18:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.76%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.96%E -2.42%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 18:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.76%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.96%E -2.42%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 18:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.76%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.96%E -2.42%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-11 07:41 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.76%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.96%E -2.42%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 18:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.76%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.96%E -2.42%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 18:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.76%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.96%E -2.42%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 18:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.76%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.96%E -2.42%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 18:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.76%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.96%E -2.42%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 18:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.76%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.96%E -2.42%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 18:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.76%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.96%E -2.42%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 18:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.76%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -3.96%E -2.42%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-10 18:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.76%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -4.55%E -2.79%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.76%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-11 07:41 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.76%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-11 07:31 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.76%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-10 16:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.76%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.14%E -3.17%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.76%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.72%E -3.55%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-11 05:11 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.76%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-11 07:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.76%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-11 07:35 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.76%E -3.00%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-11 07:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -8.83%E -4.01%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -3.96%E -2.42%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -8.83%E -4.01%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -3.96%E -2.42%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.83%E -4.01%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.83%E -4.01%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.83%E -4.01%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-11 07:44 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.83%E -4.01%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.31%E -3.94%K -10.51%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-11 07:44 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -8.83%E -4.01%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.20%EV -7.48%E -4.73%K -12.89%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-10 15:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -8.83%E -4.01%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -8.06%E -5.14%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-11 07:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.20%EV -10.90%E -5.07%K -9.48%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.80%EV -8.06%E -5.14%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-10-10 18:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.24% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.76% | 0.2% | 2026-10-11 07:41 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.90% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 60.10% | 0.2% | 2026-10-11 07:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.57% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.43% | 0.3% | 2026-10-11 07:41 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24% | 0.6% | 2026-10-11 07:41 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24% | 0.6% | 2026-10-11 07:41 |
| Novig◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.05% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.95% | 2.3% | 2026-10-11 07:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.71% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.29% | 2.4% | 2026-10-11 07:41 |