Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Francisco Cerundolo v Jakub Mensik

2026-10-11 06:20 UTC — ATP Shanghai Masters

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Francisco Cerundolo (Local)

Predicción 41.88%2.39momio equitativo
EV -2.83%
Ventaja -1.22%
Kelly -2.14%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.32

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.10%41.94%41.90%43.15%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.152.252.252.3246.51%44.39%44.44%43.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Jakub Mensik (Visitante)

Predicción 58.12%1.72momio equitativo
EV -2.36%
Ventaja -1.41%
Kelly -3.48%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.68

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.85%58.06%58.10%58.90%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.571.631.641.6863.69%61.21%60.98%59.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Francisco Cerundolo (Local): 41.88%; Jakub Mensik (Visitante): 58.12%. Para Jakub Mensik (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 1.72. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 1.68, con un valor esperado de -2.36%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 42.00%EV -2.83%E -1.22%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.00%EV -2.36%E -1.41%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.6%2026-10-10 20:31
FanDuel🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -2.83%E -1.22%K -2.14%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.44%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-10 19:40
1xBet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.52%EV -3.25%E -1.41%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.48%EV -4.69%E -2.86%K -7.33%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-10 20:05
GTbets🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -3.25%E -1.41%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.44%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 14:00
SportsBet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -3.25%E -1.41%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.44%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 19:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -3.67%E -1.59%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.95%E -1.76%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-10 20:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -3.67%E -1.59%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.95%E -1.76%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-10 20:45
BetAnything🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -3.67%E -1.59%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -2.95%E -1.76%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-10 20:45
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.67%E -1.59%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.11%E -2.49%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-10 14:05
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.67%E -1.59%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.11%E -2.49%K -6.32%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-10 13:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -3.67%E -1.59%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -4.69%E -2.86%K -7.33%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-10 16:30
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.67%E -1.59%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.44%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-10 14:05
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.67%E -1.59%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.44%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-10 18:20
DraftKings🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -4.09%E -1.78%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -5.27%E -3.23%K -8.37%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 14:00
NordicBet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -4.09%E -1.78%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -5.27%E -3.23%K -8.37%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 14:04
Betsson🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -4.09%E -1.78%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -5.27%E -3.23%K -8.37%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 14:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.43%EV -4.09%E -1.78%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.57%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.44%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 20:25
Coolbet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.94%EV -4.92%E -2.17%K -3.88%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.06%EV -4.69%E -2.86%K -7.33%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 20:20
Bet Right🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05%EV -5.34%E -2.36%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.95%EV -4.69%E -2.86%K -7.33%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-10 20:01
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.76%E -2.56%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.95%E -1.76%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-10 19:59
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.76%E -2.56%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.11%E -2.49%K -6.32%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 14:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.76%E -2.56%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.11%E -2.49%K -6.32%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 18:35
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.76%E -2.56%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.69%E -2.86%K -7.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 18:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.76%E -2.56%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.69%E -2.86%K -7.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 18:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.76%E -2.56%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.69%E -2.86%K -7.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 18:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.76%E -2.56%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.69%E -2.86%K -7.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 18:35
TABtouch🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.76%E -2.56%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.69%E -2.86%K -7.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 18:35
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.76%E -2.56%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.69%E -2.86%K -7.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 18:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.76%E -2.56%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.69%E -2.86%K -7.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 18:35
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.76%E -2.56%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.69%E -2.86%K -7.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 18:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.76%E -2.56%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.69%E -2.86%K -7.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 18:35
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.76%E -2.56%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.69%E -2.86%K -7.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 18:35
Bally Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.76%E -2.56%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.69%E -2.86%K -7.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 18:35
betPARX🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.76%E -2.56%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.69%E -2.86%K -7.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 18:34
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.76%E -2.56%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.69%E -2.86%K -7.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 18:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.76%E -2.56%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.69%E -2.86%K -7.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 18:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.76%E -2.56%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.27%E -3.23%K -8.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-10 20:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.76%E -2.56%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.27%E -3.23%K -8.37%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-10 14:00
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.76%E -2.56%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-10 18:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.76%E -2.56%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-10 16:30
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.76%E -2.56%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-10 14:01
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.76%E -2.56%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-10 14:01
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.76%E -2.56%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-10 14:20
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -5.76%E -2.56%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.76%E -5.58%K -15.36%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-10 13:59
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -5.76%E -2.56%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.76%E -5.58%K -15.36%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-10 14:00
ReBet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.67%EV -6.18%E -2.76%K -4.98%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.33%EV -7.01%E -4.38%K -11.69%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-10 18:20
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.86%E -3.57%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.95%E -1.76%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 20:00
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.86%E -3.57%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.95%E -1.76%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 20:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.86%E -3.57%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.95%E -1.76%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 20:01
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.86%E -3.57%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.95%E -1.76%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 20:00
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -7.86%E -3.57%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -4.11%E -2.49%K -6.32%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-10 20:25
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -7.86%E -3.57%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -4.69%E -2.86%K -7.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-10 14:01
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -7.86%E -3.57%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -4.69%E -2.86%K -7.33%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-10 14:00
TAB🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.86%E -3.57%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-10 20:00
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.86%E -3.57%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.01%E -4.38%K -11.69%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-10 14:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.86%E -3.57%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.01%E -4.38%K -11.69%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-10 14:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -7.86%E -3.57%K -6.55%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.20%EV -8.18%E -5.17%K -14.10%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-10 15:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -9.95%E -4.63%K -8.65%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -5.85%E -3.61%K -9.44%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-10 20:30
PMU (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.20%EV -9.95%E -4.63%K -8.65%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.80%EV -8.76%E -5.58%K -15.36%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-10 18:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%0.5%2026-10-10 20:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%0.5%2026-10-10 20:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%0.5%2026-10-10 20:40
Matchbook◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%0.5%2026-10-10 20:40
Novig◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%1.2%2026-10-10 20:45
ProphetX◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.87%1.70I 58.82%NM 58.13%1.2%2026-10-10 20:10
Smarkets◎2.34I 42.74%NM 41.79%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.21%2.3%2026-10-10 20:45