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Daniil Medvedev v Dalibor Svrcina
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Daniil Medvedev (Local)
Prediction 85.15%1.17fair odd
EV -2.08%
Edge -1.81%
Kelly -13.85%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.89%85.23%85.30%87.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.121.121.1594.34%89.51%89.29%86.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Dalibor Svrcina (Visit)
Prediction 14.85%6.73fair odd
EV +12.86%
Edge +1.69%
Kelly +1.95%
Growth +0.251%
assuming max odds 7.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.64%14.77%14.70%18.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.206.246.007.6019.23%16.04%16.67%13.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Daniil Medvedev (Local): 85.15%; Dalibor Svrcina (Visit): 14.85%. For Dalibor Svrcina (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.73. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.86%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.36%EV -6.34%E -5.76%K -63.36%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.64%EV +12.86%E +1.69%K +1.95%G +0.251% | 4.1% | 2026-10-12 08:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.21%EV -6.34%E -5.76%K -63.36%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV +11.38%E +1.52%K +1.75%G +0.199% | 4.2% | 2026-10-12 08:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.21%EV -6.34%E -5.76%K -63.36%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV +11.38%E +1.52%K +1.75%G +0.199% | 4.2% | 2026-10-12 08:39 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.94%EV -6.34%E -5.76%K -63.36%G +0.000% | 7.32I 13.66%NM 13.06%EV +8.71%E +1.19%K +1.38%G +0.120% | 4.6% | 2026-10-12 08:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.94%EV -6.34%E -5.76%K -63.36%G +0.000% | 7.32I 13.66%NM 13.06%EV +8.71%E +1.19%K +1.38%G +0.120% | 4.6% | 2026-10-12 08:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 86.21%EV -4.63%E -4.14%K -38.61%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.79%EV +3.95%E +0.565%K +0.659%G +0.026% | 3.6% | 2026-10-12 07:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.34%E -5.76%K -63.36%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +3.95%E +0.565%K +0.659%G +0.026% | 5.2% | 2026-10-12 07:24 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.34%E -5.76%K -63.36%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +3.95%E +0.565%K +0.659%G +0.026% | 5.2% | 2026-10-12 08:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 86.08%EV -3.78%E -3.35%K -29.09%G +0.000% | 6.99I 14.31%NM 13.92%EV +3.81%E +0.544%K +0.635%G +0.024% | 2.8% | 2026-10-12 08:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.51%EV -9.74%E -9.19%K -162.36%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.49%EV +0.984%E +0.145%K +0.170%G +0.002% | 9.0% | 2026-10-12 07:24 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.23%EV -8.89%E -8.31%K -127.00%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.77%EV -0.501%E -0.075%K -0.088%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-11 23:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.49%EV -4.63%E -4.14%K -38.61%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.51%EV -1.99%E -0.301%K -0.355%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-12 08:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.49%EV -4.63%E -4.14%K -38.61%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.51%EV -1.99%E -0.301%K -0.355%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-12 08:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.49%EV -4.63%E -4.14%K -38.61%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.51%EV -1.99%E -0.301%K -0.355%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-11 23:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.63%E -4.14%K -38.61%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -3.47%E -0.534%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-11 23:45 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.63%E -4.14%K -38.61%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -3.47%E -0.534%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-12 08:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.63%E -4.14%K -38.61%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -3.47%E -0.534%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-12 07:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.48%E -4.94%K -49.86%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -3.47%E -0.534%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-12 07:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.48%E -4.94%K -49.86%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -3.47%E -0.534%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-12 07:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -6.34%E -5.76%K -63.36%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -3.47%E -0.534%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-12 07:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -7.19%E -6.59%K -79.86%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -3.47%E -0.534%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-12 08:19 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.09%EV -3.78%E -3.35%K -29.09%G +0.000% | 6.45I 15.50%NM 14.91%EV -4.21%E -0.653%K -0.773%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-12 08:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.11%EV -4.63%E -4.14%K -38.61%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV -4.96%E -0.774%K -0.918%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-11 21:14 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.14%EV -6.34%E -5.76%K -63.36%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.86%EV -6.44%E -1.02%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-12 08:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.63%E -4.14%K -38.61%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -7.18%E -1.15%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 21:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.63%E -4.14%K -38.61%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -7.18%E -1.15%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-12 08:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.65%EV -3.78%E -3.35%K -29.09%G +0.000% | 6.23I 16.05%NM 15.35%EV -7.48%E -1.20%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-12 07:39 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.88%EV -5.48%E -4.94%K -49.86%G +0.000% | 6.23I 16.05%NM 15.12%EV -7.48%E -1.20%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-12 07:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.82%EV -5.48%E -4.94%K -49.86%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.18%EV -7.93%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-12 09:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.63%E -4.14%K -38.61%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.90%E -1.82%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-12 06:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.63%E -4.14%K -38.61%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.90%E -1.82%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-12 08:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.63%E -4.14%K -38.61%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.90%E -1.82%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-11 20:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.63%E -4.14%K -38.61%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.90%E -1.82%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-11 20:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.63%E -4.14%K -38.61%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.90%E -1.82%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-12 08:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.63%E -4.14%K -38.61%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.90%E -1.82%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-12 08:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.63%E -4.14%K -38.61%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.90%E -1.82%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-11 20:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.63%E -4.14%K -38.61%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.90%E -1.82%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-11 20:34 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.63%E -4.14%K -38.61%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.90%E -1.82%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-11 21:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -6.34%E -5.76%K -63.36%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -10.90%E -1.82%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-11 21:33 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -6.34%E -5.76%K -63.36%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -10.90%E -1.82%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-11 21:33 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -3.78%E -3.35%K -29.09%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -13.87%E -2.39%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-11 20:44 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -3.78%E -3.35%K -29.09%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -13.87%E -2.39%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-11 20:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -3.78%E -3.35%K -29.09%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -13.87%E -2.39%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-11 20:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -3.78%E -3.35%K -29.09%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -13.87%E -2.39%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-11 20:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -3.78%E -3.35%K -29.09%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -13.87%E -2.39%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-11 20:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -3.78%E -3.35%K -29.09%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -13.87%E -2.39%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-11 20:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -3.78%E -3.35%K -29.09%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -13.87%E -2.39%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-11 20:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -3.78%E -3.35%K -29.09%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -13.87%E -2.39%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-11 20:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -3.78%E -3.35%K -29.09%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -13.87%E -2.39%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-11 20:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -3.78%E -3.35%K -29.09%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -13.87%E -2.39%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-11 20:44 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -3.78%E -3.35%K -29.09%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -13.87%E -2.39%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-11 20:44 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -3.78%E -3.35%K -29.09%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -13.87%E -2.39%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-11 20:44 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -3.78%E -3.35%K -29.09%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -13.87%E -2.39%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-11 20:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -3.78%E -3.35%K -29.09%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -13.87%E -2.39%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-11 20:44 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -3.78%E -3.35%K -29.09%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -14.61%E -2.54%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-11 20:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -3.78%E -3.35%K -29.09%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -14.61%E -2.54%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-11 20:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -4.63%E -4.14%K -38.61%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -14.61%E -2.54%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-11 20:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -4.63%E -4.14%K -38.61%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -14.61%E -2.54%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-11 20:44 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.08%EV -6.34%E -5.76%K -63.36%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.92%EV -19.81%E -3.67%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-11 20:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -2.08%E -1.81%K -13.85%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -22.78%E -4.38%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-11 20:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.89%EV -2.08%E -1.81%K -13.85%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.11%EV -22.78%E -4.38%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-11 20:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 88.14% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.86% | 0.4% | 2026-10-12 09:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 88.14% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.86% | 0.4% | 2026-10-12 09:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 88.14% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.86% | 0.4% | 2026-10-12 09:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.62% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.38% | 1.0% | 2026-10-12 09:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 88.24% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.76% | 1.2% | 2026-10-12 09:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 88.15% | 8.33I 12.00%NM 11.85% | 1.3% | 2026-10-12 09:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 88.08% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.92% | 2.3% | 2026-10-12 09:00 |