Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Daniil Medvedev v Dalibor Svrcina

2026-10-12 04:00 UTC — ATP Shanghai Masters

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Daniil Medvedev (Local)

Predicción 82.69%1.21momio equitativo
EV -2.43%
Ventaja -2.06%
Kelly -13.48%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.18

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
80.21%82.69%82.76%84.58%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.101.141.151.1890.91%87.38%86.96%84.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Dalibor Svrcina (Visitante)

Predicción 17.31%5.78momio equitativo
EV +7.33%
Ventaja +1.18%
Kelly +1.41%
Crecimiento +0.103%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.42%17.31%17.24%19.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.505.355.256.2022.22%18.70%19.05%16.13%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Daniil Medvedev (Local): 82.69%; Dalibor Svrcina (Visitante): 17.31%. Para Dalibor Svrcina (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 5.78. 7 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 6.20, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +7.33%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
FanDuel🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.58%EV -6.56%E -5.81%K -50.47%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.42%EV +7.33%E +1.18%K +1.41%G +0.103%4.6%2026-10-10 18:50
Sky Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -6.56%E -5.81%K -50.47%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV +3.87%E +0.644%K +0.773%G +0.030%5.2%2026-10-10 16:15
Betway🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -7.39%E -6.60%K -61.57%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV +3.87%E +0.644%K +0.773%G +0.030%6.0%2026-10-10 20:10
Paddy Power🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -7.39%E -6.60%K -61.57%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV +3.87%E +0.644%K +0.773%G +0.030%6.0%2026-10-10 16:11
SportsBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -8.22%E -7.40%K -74.68%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV +3.87%E +0.644%K +0.773%G +0.030%6.8%2026-10-10 16:11
LowVig.ag🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.94%EV -5.73%E -5.03%K -40.96%G +0.000%5.96I 16.78%NM 16.06%EV +3.17%E +0.533%K +0.640%G +0.020%4.5%2026-10-10 20:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.94%EV -5.73%E -5.03%K -40.96%G +0.000%5.96I 16.78%NM 16.06%EV +3.17%E +0.533%K +0.640%G +0.020%4.5%2026-10-10 20:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.82%EV -9.04%E -8.22%K -90.42%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.18%EV -1.33%E -0.233%K -0.282%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-10 16:05
GTbets🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.68%EV -8.22%E -7.40%K -74.68%G +0.000%5.69I 17.57%NM 16.32%EV -1.50%E -0.264%K -0.320%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-10 16:10
NordicBet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -4.91%E -4.27%K -32.72%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -3.06%E -0.546%K -0.665%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-10 18:50
Betsson🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.96%EV -4.91%E -4.27%K -32.72%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.04%EV -3.06%E -0.546%K -0.665%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-10 18:50
Pinnacle🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 82.54%EV -2.43%E -2.06%K -13.48%G +0.000%5.58I 17.92%NM 17.46%EV -3.40%E -0.610%K -0.743%G +0.000%2.7%2026-10-10 20:15
1xBet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.71%EV -4.08%E -3.52%K -25.51%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 17.29%EV -3.92%E -0.707%K -0.862%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-10 19:29
Fliff🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.08%EV -6.56%E -5.81%K -50.47%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 16.92%EV -3.92%E -0.707%K -0.862%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-10 20:10
Bet Right🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.91%E -4.27%K -32.72%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -4.79%E -0.871%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 18:35
Bovada🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.91%E -4.27%K -32.72%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -4.79%E -0.871%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 19:35
Fanatics🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.73%E -5.03%K -40.96%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -4.79%E -0.871%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 18:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.73%E -5.03%K -40.96%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -4.79%E -0.871%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 18:50
BetMGM🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.73%E -5.03%K -40.96%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -4.79%E -0.871%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 15:55
BetAnything🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.73%E -5.03%K -40.96%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -4.79%E -0.871%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 18:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.56%E -5.81%K -50.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -4.79%E -0.871%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-10 16:10
TAB🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.56%E -5.81%K -50.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -4.79%E -0.871%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-10 18:54
Coral🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.56%E -5.81%K -50.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -4.79%E -0.871%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-10 15:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -6.56%E -5.81%K -50.47%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -4.79%E -0.871%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-10 15:55
DraftKings🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.53%EV -4.08%E -3.52%K -25.51%G +0.000%5.48I 18.25%NM 17.47%EV -5.14%E -0.937%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-10 18:55
theScore Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV -6.56%E -5.81%K -50.47%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -6.52%E -1.21%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-10 18:30
PlayUp🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -4.91%E -4.27%K -32.72%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -9.12%E -1.74%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-10 18:54
Betr (AU)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -4.91%E -4.27%K -32.72%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -9.12%E -1.74%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-10 18:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -4.91%E -4.27%K -32.72%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -9.12%E -1.74%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-10 18:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -5.73%E -5.03%K -40.96%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -9.12%E -1.74%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-10 18:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -4.08%E -3.52%K -25.51%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -9.98%E -1.92%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 18:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -4.08%E -3.52%K -25.51%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -9.98%E -1.92%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 18:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -4.08%E -3.52%K -25.51%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -9.98%E -1.92%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 18:25
Casumo🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -4.08%E -3.52%K -25.51%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -9.98%E -1.92%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 18:24
Unibet (NL)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -4.08%E -3.52%K -25.51%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -9.98%E -1.92%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 18:25
BetRivers🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -4.08%E -3.52%K -25.51%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -9.98%E -1.92%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 18:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -4.08%E -3.52%K -25.51%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -9.98%E -1.92%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 18:25
Unibet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -4.08%E -3.52%K -25.51%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -9.98%E -1.92%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 18:25
Grosvenor🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -4.08%E -3.52%K -25.51%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -9.98%E -1.92%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 18:25
TABtouch🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -4.08%E -3.52%K -25.51%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -9.98%E -1.92%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 18:25
Bally Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -4.08%E -3.52%K -25.51%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -9.98%E -1.92%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 18:24
Svenska Spel🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -4.08%E -3.52%K -25.51%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -9.98%E -1.92%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 18:25
betPARX🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -4.08%E -3.52%K -25.51%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -9.98%E -1.92%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 18:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -4.08%E -3.52%K -25.51%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV -9.98%E -1.92%K -2.38%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 18:25
LeoVegas🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.73%EV -5.73%E -5.03%K -40.96%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.27%EV -11.71%E -2.30%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-10 18:50
888sport🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.25%E -2.78%K -19.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -13.44%E -2.69%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-10 18:50
William Hill🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.25%E -2.78%K -19.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -13.44%E -2.69%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-10 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.25%E -2.78%K -19.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -13.44%E -2.69%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-10 18:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -3.25%E -2.78%K -19.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -13.44%E -2.69%K -3.36%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-10 18:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -4.08%E -3.52%K -25.51%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -13.44%E -2.69%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-10 16:01
Neds🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -4.08%E -3.52%K -25.51%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -13.44%E -2.69%K -3.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-10 16:01
Bet Victor🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -6.56%E -5.81%K -50.47%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -13.44%E -2.69%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-10 19:26
betano_uk🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -6.56%E -5.81%K -50.47%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -13.44%E -2.69%K -3.36%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-10 19:31
ReBet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.08%EV -7.39%E -6.60%K -61.57%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.92%EV -16.91%E -3.52%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-10 18:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.92%EV -7.39%E -6.60%K -61.57%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.08%EV -17.77%E -3.74%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-10 18:24
Winamax (FR)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 80.56%EV -8.22%E -7.40%K -74.68%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.44%EV -20.37%E -4.43%K -5.66%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-10 18:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 80.21%EV -8.22%E -7.40%K -74.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.79%EV -22.10%E -4.91%K -6.31%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-10 18:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 83.68%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.32%2.1%2026-10-10 20:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 83.68%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.32%2.1%2026-10-10 20:05
Novig◎1.18I 84.75%NM 82.49%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.51%2.7%2026-10-10 20:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.16I 86.21%NM 83.80%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.20%2.9%2026-10-10 20:10
Matchbook◎1.17I 85.47%NM 82.72%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.28%3.3%2026-10-10 20:15
ProphetX◎1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%4.1%2026-10-10 20:00
Smarkets◎1.14I 87.72%NM 79.79%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.21%9.9%2026-10-10 18:50