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Alex de Minaur v Rei Sakamoto
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alex de Minaur (Local)
Prediction 68.57%1.46fair odd
EV -1.26%
Edge -0.875%
Kelly -2.86%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.44
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.35%68.50%68.49%70.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.381.381.4475.76%72.28%72.46%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Rei Sakamoto (Visit)
Prediction 31.43%3.18fair odd
EV +2.15%
Edge +0.662%
Kelly +0.956%
Growth +0.021%
assuming max odds 3.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.50%31.50%31.51%33.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.993.003.2535.71%33.42%33.33%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alex de Minaur (Local): 68.57%; Rei Sakamoto (Visit): 31.43%. For Rei Sakamoto (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.18. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.15%.
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -6.75%E -4.96%K -18.74%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV +2.15%E +0.662%K +0.956%G +0.021% | 4.3% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.91%EV -6.75%E -4.96%K -18.74%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.09%EV -0.678%E -0.215%K -0.314%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-11 05:31 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -5.37%E -3.89%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -0.992%E -0.315%K -0.462%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-11 05:31 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.79%EV -2.63%E -1.85%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 31.21%EV -1.62%E -0.518%K -0.761%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-10-11 05:01 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -4.00%E -2.86%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -2.56%E -0.827%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-10 22:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.37%E -3.89%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -2.56%E -0.827%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-10 21:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -6.06%E -4.42%K -16.38%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -2.56%E -0.827%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-11 05:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.75%E -4.96%K -18.74%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.56%E -0.827%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-11 05:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -9.49%E -7.19%K -29.65%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -2.56%E -0.827%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-10 22:01 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.13%EV -5.37%E -3.89%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 30.87%EV -2.88%E -0.932%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-10-11 03:01 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.61%EV -4.00%E -2.86%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 31.39%EV -3.82%E -1.25%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-10-11 05:34 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -4.69%E -3.37%K -12.02%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -4.14%E -1.36%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-10 22:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -4.69%E -3.37%K -12.02%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -4.14%E -1.36%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-10 22:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.55%EV -4.69%E -3.37%K -12.02%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.45%EV -4.76%E -1.57%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-11 05:31 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.48%EV -4.69%E -3.37%K -12.02%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.52%EV -5.08%E -1.68%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-11 04:11 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -2.63%E -1.85%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-11 05:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.37%E -3.89%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-10 23:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.37%E -3.89%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-10 22:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.37%E -3.89%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-11 05:31 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.37%E -3.89%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-11 05:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.37%E -3.89%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-11 05:31 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.37%E -3.89%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-11 05:31 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.37%E -3.89%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-11 05:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.37%E -3.89%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-11 05:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.37%E -3.89%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-11 05:31 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.37%E -3.89%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-11 05:31 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.37%E -3.89%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-11 05:31 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.37%E -3.89%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-11 05:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.37%E -3.89%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-10 21:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.37%E -3.89%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-11 05:31 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.37%E -3.89%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-11 05:31 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.37%E -3.89%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-11 05:31 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.37%E -3.89%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-11 05:31 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.37%E -3.89%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-11 05:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -6.06%E -4.42%K -16.38%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-11 05:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.75%E -4.96%K -18.74%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.43%E -5.51%K -21.23%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-11 05:01 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.80%E -6.62%K -26.68%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.80%E -6.62%K -26.68%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -5.71%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-10-10 13:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.00%E -2.86%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 22:11 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -5.37%E -3.89%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-11 02:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -5.37%E -3.89%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-11 05:35 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -6.06%E -4.42%K -16.38%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-11 05:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.00%E -2.86%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-11 02:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.00%E -2.86%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-11 04:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.00%E -2.86%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-11 02:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.00%E -2.86%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-11 02:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.00%E -2.86%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-11 02:35 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.37%E -3.89%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-11 02:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.74%EV -1.26%E -0.875%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 33.26%EV -9.16%E -3.17%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-11 05:31 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.74%EV -1.26%E -0.875%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 33.26%EV -9.16%E -3.17%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-10-11 05:31 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -4.00%E -2.86%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-11 05:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -4.00%E -2.86%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -9.79%E -3.41%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-10 22:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -4.00%E -2.86%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -9.79%E -3.41%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-10 22:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.02%EV -8.12%E -6.06%K -23.87%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.98%EV -10.42%E -3.66%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-11 05:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -2.63%E -1.85%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -11.99%E -4.28%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-10 22:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -2.63%E -1.85%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -11.99%E -4.28%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-10 22:11 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.30% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70% | 0.2% | 2026-10-11 05:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.30% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70% | 0.2% | 2026-10-11 05:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 0.7% | 2026-10-11 05:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 0.7% | 2026-10-11 05:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.78% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.22% | 1.7% | 2026-10-11 05:35 |
| Novig◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.64% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 31.36% | 1.9% | 2026-10-11 05:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.08% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.92% | 2.7% | 2026-10-11 05:35 |