Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alex de Minaur v Rei Sakamoto

2026-10-11 05:10 UTC — ATP Shanghai Masters

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alex de Minaur (Local)

Prediction 68.65%1.46fair odd
EV -2.52%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -5.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.95%68.80%68.55%71.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.361.361.4278.13%73.34%73.53%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rei Sakamoto (Visit)

Prediction 31.35%3.19fair odd
EV +4.71%
Edge +1.41%
Kelly +2.01%
Growth +0.095%

assuming max odds 3.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.67%31.20%31.45%34.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.093.103.3436.36%32.33%32.26%29.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Alex de Minaur (Local): 68.65%; Rei Sakamoto (Visit): 31.35%. For Rei Sakamoto (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.19. 21 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.34, producing a positive expected value of +4.71%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.22%EV -7.32%E -5.42%K -20.92%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.78%EV +4.71%E +1.41%K +2.01%G +0.095%4.0%2026-10-10 19:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.22%EV -7.32%E -5.42%K -20.92%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.78%EV +4.71%E +1.41%K +2.01%G +0.095%4.0%2026-10-10 19:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.70%E -6.54%K -26.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +3.46%E +1.05%K +1.50%G +0.052%5.5%2026-10-10 18:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.70%E -6.54%K -26.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +3.46%E +1.05%K +1.50%G +0.052%5.5%2026-10-10 18:35
Casumo🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.70%E -6.54%K -26.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +3.46%E +1.05%K +1.50%G +0.052%5.5%2026-10-10 18:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.70%E -6.54%K -26.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +3.46%E +1.05%K +1.50%G +0.052%5.5%2026-10-10 18:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.70%E -6.54%K -26.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +3.46%E +1.05%K +1.50%G +0.052%5.5%2026-10-10 18:35
Grosvenor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.70%E -6.54%K -26.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +3.46%E +1.05%K +1.50%G +0.052%5.5%2026-10-10 18:35
TABtouch🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.70%E -6.54%K -26.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +3.46%E +1.05%K +1.50%G +0.052%5.5%2026-10-10 18:35
BetRivers🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.70%E -6.54%K -26.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +3.46%E +1.05%K +1.50%G +0.052%5.5%2026-10-10 18:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.70%E -6.54%K -26.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +3.46%E +1.05%K +1.50%G +0.052%5.5%2026-10-10 18:35
Unibet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.70%E -6.54%K -26.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +3.46%E +1.05%K +1.50%G +0.052%5.5%2026-10-10 18:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.70%E -6.54%K -26.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +3.46%E +1.05%K +1.50%G +0.052%5.5%2026-10-10 18:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.70%E -6.54%K -26.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +3.46%E +1.05%K +1.50%G +0.052%5.5%2026-10-10 18:35
betPARX🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.70%E -6.54%K -26.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +3.46%E +1.05%K +1.50%G +0.052%5.5%2026-10-10 18:34
Bally Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.70%E -6.54%K -26.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +3.46%E +1.05%K +1.50%G +0.052%5.5%2026-10-10 18:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.70%E -6.54%K -26.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +3.46%E +1.05%K +1.50%G +0.052%5.5%2026-10-10 14:00
GTbets🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.33%EV -10.07%E -7.69%K -32.48%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.67%EV +2.20%E +0.675%K +0.974%G +0.021%7.0%2026-10-10 14:00
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -6.64%E -4.88%K -18.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV +1.89%E +0.581%K +0.839%G +0.016%4.3%2026-10-10 14:01
SportsBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.39%EV -7.32%E -5.42%K -20.92%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.61%EV +0.635%E +0.198%K +0.287%G +0.002%5.2%2026-10-10 14:00
FanDuel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -6.64%E -4.88%K -18.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV +0.321%E +0.100%K +0.146%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-10 14:00
BetAnything🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -5.26%E -3.81%K -13.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -1.25%E -0.396%K -0.580%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-10 19:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.11%EV -12.13%E -9.48%K -43.32%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.89%EV -1.25%E -0.396%K -0.580%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-10 18:35
Pinnacle🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 68.86%EV -2.52%E -1.77%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 31.14%EV -1.56%E -0.497%K -0.729%G +0.000%2.3%2026-10-10 17:40
DraftKings🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.27%EV -5.26%E -3.81%K -13.85%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.73%EV -2.50%E -0.804%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-10 14:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.74%EV -3.20%E -2.27%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.26%EV -2.81%E -0.908%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-10 19:00
1xBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -4.58%E -3.29%K -11.74%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -2.81%E -0.908%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-10 19:00
Bovada🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.26%E -3.81%K -13.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -2.81%E -0.908%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-10 13:59
Bet Right🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -5.95%E -4.34%K -16.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -2.81%E -0.908%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 14:01
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -8.70%E -6.54%K -26.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -2.81%E -0.908%K -1.34%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-10 14:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -4.58%E -3.29%K -11.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -5.95%E -1.98%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 19:00
NordicBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -4.58%E -3.29%K -11.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -5.95%E -1.98%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 18:59
Betsson🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -4.58%E -3.29%K -11.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -5.95%E -1.98%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 19:00
Betway🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.26%E -3.81%K -13.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.95%E -1.98%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-10 14:00
Fanatics🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.26%E -3.81%K -13.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.95%E -1.98%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-10 19:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -5.95%E -4.34%K -16.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -5.95%E -1.98%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-10 20:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.64%E -4.88%K -18.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.95%E -1.98%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-10 19:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.64%E -4.88%K -18.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.95%E -1.98%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-10 14:01
Bet Victor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.70%E -6.54%K -26.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -5.95%E -1.98%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-10 14:00
betano_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.70%E -6.54%K -26.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -5.95%E -1.98%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-10 13:59
LeoVegas🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -5.26%E -3.81%K -13.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -7.52%E -2.55%K -3.85%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-10 19:00
Fliff🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.45%EV -6.64%E -4.88%K -18.43%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -7.52%E -2.55%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-10 18:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -7.32%E -5.42%K -20.92%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -7.52%E -2.55%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-10 13:53
ReBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.14%EV -5.95%E -4.34%K -16.08%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 31.86%EV -8.14%E -2.78%K -4.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-10 18:55
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.89%E -2.78%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.08%E -3.13%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 15:35
PlayUp🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.89%E -2.78%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.08%E -3.13%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 17:35
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.89%E -2.78%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.08%E -3.13%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 15:35
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.89%E -2.78%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.08%E -3.13%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 14:01
theScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.89%E -2.78%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.08%E -3.13%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 18:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.89%E -2.78%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.08%E -3.13%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 15:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.89%E -2.78%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.08%E -3.13%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 15:35
TAB🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.26%E -3.81%K -13.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -9.08%E -3.13%K -4.78%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-10 14:01
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -3.89%E -2.78%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -9.71%E -3.37%K -5.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-10 19:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -3.89%E -2.78%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -10.02%E -3.49%K -5.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-10 14:00
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -3.89%E -2.78%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -10.02%E -3.49%K -5.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-10 14:00
Neds🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -2.52%E -1.77%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -13.79%E -5.01%K -7.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-10 14:01
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -2.52%E -1.77%K -5.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -13.79%E -5.01%K -7.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-10 14:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.7%2026-10-10 19:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.7%2026-10-10 19:41
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.7%2026-10-10 19:41
Matchbook◎1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.7%2026-10-10 19:41
ProphetX◎1.42I 70.42%NM 69.59%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.41%1.2%2026-10-10 19:50
Novig◎1.42I 70.42%NM 69.46%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.54%1.4%2026-10-10 18:05
Smarkets◎1.40I 71.43%NM 69.89%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.11%2.2%2026-10-10 19:35