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Ugo Humbert v Marin Cilic
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ugo Humbert (Local)
Prediction 52.44%1.91fair odd
EV +4.87%
Edge +2.44%
Kelly +4.87%
Growth +0.237%
assuming max odds 2.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.38%52.12%52.35%55.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.801.782.0060.24%55.56%56.18%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Marin Cilic (Visit)
Prediction 47.56%2.10fair odd
EV -0.114%
Edge -0.054%
Kelly -0.104%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.88%47.88%47.65%53.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.951.952.1057.80%51.23%51.28%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ugo Humbert (Local): 52.44%; Marin Cilic (Visit): 47.56%. For Ugo Humbert (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.91. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.87%.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV +4.87%E +2.44%K +4.87%G +0.237% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -17.71%E -10.24%K -24.26%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-06-16 16:19 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV +2.25%E +1.15%K +2.37%G +0.053% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -14.38%E -7.99%K -17.98%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.39%EV +0.151%E +0.079%K +0.166%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.61%EV -7.72%E -3.98%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV +0.151%E +0.079%K +0.166%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -12.96%E -7.08%K -15.61%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV +0.151%E +0.079%K +0.166%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -14.38%E -7.99%K -17.98%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-16 16:21 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV +0.151%E +0.079%K +0.166%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -14.38%E -7.99%K -17.98%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -1.95%E -1.04%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -11.05%E -5.91%K -12.71%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%EV -2.99%E -1.62%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -12.96%E -7.08%K -15.61%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.19%EV -3.52%E -1.91%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.81%EV -8.20%E -4.25%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.04%E -2.21%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.87%E -2.44%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-16 16:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -4.04%E -2.21%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -7.25%E -3.72%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.46%EV -4.04%E -2.21%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.54%EV -7.72%E -3.98%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.04%E -2.21%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -9.15%E -4.79%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.04%E -2.21%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -9.15%E -4.79%K -10.06%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -4.04%E -2.21%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -12.96%E -7.08%K -15.61%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -4.04%E -2.21%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -12.96%E -7.08%K -15.61%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%EV -5.09%E -2.81%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -6.30%E -3.20%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-16 16:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.60%EV -5.09%E -2.81%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%EV -8.20%E -4.25%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.62%E -3.12%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.87%E -2.44%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-16 16:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.62%E -3.12%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.25%E -3.72%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-16 16:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.77%EV -6.14%E -3.43%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.23%EV -4.87%E -2.44%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-16 16:21 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -6.67%E -3.74%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -3.92%E -1.94%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -6.67%E -3.74%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -3.92%E -1.94%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -6.67%E -3.74%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -3.92%E -1.94%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -6.67%E -3.74%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -3.92%E -1.94%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -6.67%E -3.74%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.84%EV -3.92%E -1.94%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -7.71%E -4.38%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -1.07%E -0.512%K -0.986%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.19%EV -7.71%E -4.38%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.81%EV -4.87%E -2.44%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.82%EV -7.71%E -4.38%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.18%EV -6.30%E -3.20%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-16 16:21 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 51.91%EV -7.71%E -4.38%K -10.15%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.09%EV -9.63%E -5.07%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -8.24%E -4.71%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -0.114%E -0.054%K -0.104%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -8.24%E -4.71%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -0.114%E -0.054%K -0.104%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -8.24%E -4.71%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -2.49%E -1.22%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-16 16:21 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -8.24%E -4.71%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -2.49%E -1.22%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -8.24%E -4.71%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -4.87%E -2.44%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -8.24%E -4.71%K -10.98%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.25%E -3.72%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -8.76%E -5.04%K -11.84%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -2.49%E -1.22%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.12%EV -9.29%E -5.37%K -12.72%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.88%EV -6.77%E -3.46%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -9.81%E -5.70%K -13.63%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -4.87%E -2.44%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.13%EV -9.81%E -5.70%K -13.63%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.87%EV -7.25%E -3.72%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -10.34%E -6.04%K -14.56%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -0.114%E -0.054%K -0.104%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.65%EV -10.86%E -6.39%K -15.51%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 47.35%EV -10.10%E -5.35%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-06-16 16:21 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 53.89%EV -12.96%E -7.81%K -19.63%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 46.11%EV -7.72%E -3.98%K -8.22%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.62% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.38% | 0.8% | 2026-06-16 16:21 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49% | 1.0% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.98I 50.51%NM 49.87% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.13% | 1.3% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.71% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.29% | 2.9% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.71% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.29% | 2.9% | 2026-06-16 16:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46% | 8.1% | 2026-06-16 16:19 |