L’École des cotes

Jakub Mensik v Adrian Mannarino

Coup d’envoi : 2026-06-16 11:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

63 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Jakub Mensik (Local)

Prévision 63.59%1.57cote équitable
EV -0.799%
Avantage -0.512%
Kelly -1.43%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.56

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
60.10%63.64%63.41%65.88%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.401.471.481.5671.43%67.84%67.57%64.10%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Adrian Mannarino (Visiteur)

Prévision 36.41%2.75cote équitable
EV +2.31%
Avantage +0.822%
Kelly +1.28%
Croissance +0.030%

avec la cote maximale 2.81

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
34.12%36.36%36.59%39.90%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.352.612.602.8142.55%38.36%38.46%35.59%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (63 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
Pinnacle1.49I 67.11%NM 65.35%EV -5.25%E -3.52%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.65%EV +2.31%E +0.822%K +1.28%G +0.030%2.7%2026-06-16 10:30
BetUS1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -7.79%E -5.38%K -17.32%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV +1.95%E +0.695%K +1.08%G +0.021%4.7%2026-06-16 10:30
DraftKings1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -8.43%E -5.85%K -19.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV +0.127%E +0.046%K +0.072%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-16 10:40
BetOnline.ag1.51I 66.23%NM 64.30%EV -3.98%E -2.63%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.70%EV -0.966%E -0.355%K -0.561%G +0.000%3.0%2026-06-16 10:30
LowVig.ag1.51I 66.23%NM 64.30%EV -3.98%E -2.63%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.70%EV -0.966%E -0.355%K -0.561%G +0.000%3.0%2026-06-16 10:30
FanDuel1.42I 70.42%NM 65.70%EV -9.70%E -6.83%K -23.10%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.30%EV -0.966%E -0.355%K -0.561%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-16 10:40
Unibet (FR)1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -4.61%E -3.08%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -1.69%E -0.627%K -0.996%G +0.000%3.7%2026-06-16 10:29
Bovada1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.89%E -3.98%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -1.69%E -0.627%K -0.996%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-16 10:29
BetAnything1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.89%E -3.98%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -1.69%E -0.627%K -0.996%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-16 10:30
Marathon Bet1.47I 68.03%NM 64.49%EV -6.52%E -4.44%K -13.88%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.51%EV -2.79%E -1.04%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-16 10:29
GTbets1.40I 71.43%NM 65.60%EV -10.97%E -7.84%K -27.43%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 34.40%EV -2.79%E -1.04%K -1.67%G +0.000%8.9%2026-06-16 10:29
Winamax (DE)1.52I 65.79%NM 63.55%EV -3.34%E -2.20%K -6.43%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.45%EV -3.51%E -1.33%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.5%2026-06-16 10:40
ReBet1.49I 67.11%NM 64.01%EV -5.25%E -3.52%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.99%EV -3.51%E -1.33%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-16 10:29
Bet Right1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.89%E -3.98%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.51%E -1.33%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 10:30
Unibet (NL)1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.89%E -3.98%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.51%E -1.33%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 10:40
BetRivers1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.89%E -3.98%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.51%E -1.33%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 10:40
Casumo1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.89%E -3.98%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.51%E -1.33%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 10:40
Unibet (SE)1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.89%E -3.98%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.51%E -1.33%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 10:40
Unibet1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.89%E -3.98%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.51%E -1.33%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 10:40
Svenska Spel1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.89%E -3.98%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.51%E -1.33%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 10:40
ATG (SE)1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.89%E -3.98%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.51%E -1.33%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 10:40
betPARX1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.89%E -3.98%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.51%E -1.33%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 10:40
Hard Rock Bet1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.89%E -3.98%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.51%E -1.33%K -2.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-16 10:40
NetBet (FR)1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -9.07%E -6.34%K -21.08%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV -3.51%E -1.33%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.7%2026-06-16 10:29
Tipico (DE)1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -9.70%E -6.83%K -23.10%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -3.51%E -1.33%K -2.13%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-16 10:30
Bally Bet1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -5.25%E -3.52%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -4.24%E -1.61%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-16 10:30
Sky Bet1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%EV -8.43%E -5.85%K -19.16%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV -4.24%E -1.61%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-16 10:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.26%EV -10.97%E -7.84%K -27.43%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.74%EV -4.24%E -1.61%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.5%2026-06-16 10:40
1xBet1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.61%E -3.08%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -4.61%E -1.76%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-16 10:28
betfred_uk1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.61%E -3.08%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -4.61%E -1.76%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-16 10:30
Paddy Power1.40I 71.43%NM 65.17%EV -10.97%E -7.84%K -27.43%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -4.61%E -1.76%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.6%2026-06-16 10:40
Betway1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.61%E -3.08%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.33%E -2.05%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-16 10:30
William Hill1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.61%E -3.08%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.33%E -2.05%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-16 10:30
Unibet (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.61%E -3.08%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.33%E -2.05%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-16 10:30
Coolbet1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.61%E -3.08%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.33%E -2.05%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-16 10:40
Dabble (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.61%E -3.08%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.33%E -2.05%K -3.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-16 10:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.89%E -3.98%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.33%E -2.05%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-16 10:30
Betr (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.89%E -3.98%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -5.33%E -2.05%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-16 10:38
TABtouch1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.52%E -4.44%K -13.88%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -5.33%E -2.05%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-16 10:40
Grosvenor1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.52%E -4.44%K -13.88%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -5.33%E -2.05%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-16 10:40
LiveScore Bet1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -7.16%E -4.90%K -15.56%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -5.33%E -2.05%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-16 10:40
Virgin Bet1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -7.16%E -4.90%K -15.56%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -5.33%E -2.05%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-16 10:40
Bet Victor1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.79%E -5.38%K -17.32%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -5.33%E -2.05%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-16 10:29
Everygame1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -8.43%E -5.85%K -19.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -5.33%E -2.05%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.9%2026-06-16 10:30
Winamax (FR)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.61%E -3.08%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.16%E -2.81%K -4.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-16 10:30
PlayUp1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.61%E -3.08%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -7.16%E -2.81%K -4.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-16 10:30
LeoVegas1.43I 69.93%NM 64.07%EV -9.07%E -6.34%K -21.08%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.93%EV -7.16%E -2.81%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-16 10:40
LeoVegas (SE)1.43I 69.93%NM 64.07%EV -9.07%E -6.34%K -21.08%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.93%EV -7.16%E -2.81%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-16 10:40
Fliff1.43I 69.93%NM 64.07%EV -9.07%E -6.34%K -21.08%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.93%EV -7.16%E -2.81%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-16 10:40
BetMGM1.48I 67.57%NM 63.18%EV -5.89%E -3.98%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 36.82%EV -7.52%E -2.96%K -4.88%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-16 10:40
Fanatics1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.61%E -3.08%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.98%E -3.59%K -5.98%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-16 10:30
TAB1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.61%E -3.08%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.98%E -3.59%K -5.98%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-16 10:30
PointsBet (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.61%E -3.08%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.98%E -3.59%K -5.98%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-16 10:30
Betsson1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.61%E -3.08%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.98%E -3.59%K -5.98%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-16 10:30
NordicBet1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.61%E -3.08%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.98%E -3.59%K -5.98%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-16 10:30
BoyleSports1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.61%E -3.08%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.98%E -3.59%K -5.98%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-16 10:40
Ladbrokes (AU)1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.89%E -3.98%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -8.98%E -3.59%K -5.98%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-16 10:30
Coral1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.89%E -3.98%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -8.98%E -3.59%K -5.98%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-16 10:30
Neds1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.89%E -3.98%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -8.98%E -3.59%K -5.98%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-16 10:30
theScore Bet1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.89%E -3.98%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -8.98%E -3.59%K -5.98%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-16 10:30
Betclic (FR)1.46I 68.49%NM 63.13%EV -7.16%E -4.90%K -15.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.87%EV -8.98%E -3.59%K -5.98%G +0.000%8.5%2026-06-16 10:39
PMU (FR)1.40I 71.43%NM 63.92%EV -10.97%E -7.84%K -27.43%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.08%EV -9.70%E -3.91%K -6.56%G +0.000%11.8%2026-06-16 10:40
Caesars1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -0.799%E -0.512%K -1.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -14.44%E -6.14%K -10.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-16 10:39
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook1.54I 64.94%NM 64.84%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.16%0.1%2026-06-16 10:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.52I 65.79%NM 65.45%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.55%0.5%2026-06-16 10:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%0.8%2026-06-16 10:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%0.8%2026-06-16 10:40
Smarkets1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%0.8%2026-06-16 10:40
Novig1.48I 67.57%NM 65.90%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.10%2.5%2026-06-16 10:40