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Daniel Merida Aguilar v Sebastian Baez
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local)
Prediction 71.20%1.40fair odd
EV -1.75%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -4.60%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.49%71.24%70.97%73.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.331.341.3881.97%75.01%74.63%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sebastian Baez (Visit)
Prediction 28.80%3.47fair odd
EV +3.69%
Edge +1.02%
Kelly +1.42%
Growth +0.052%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.53%28.76%29.03%31.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.213.163.6035.09%31.17%31.70%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local): 71.20%; Sebastian Baez (Visit): 28.80%. For Sebastian Baez (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.47. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.69%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -7.44%E -5.73%K -24.81%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV +3.69%E +1.02%K +1.42%G +0.052% | 4.7% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -8.16%E -6.32%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV +2.25%E +0.634%K +0.882%G +0.020% | 5.7% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.44%E -5.73%K -24.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.809%E +0.231%K +0.324%G +0.003% | 5.5% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.44%E -5.73%K -24.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.809%E +0.231%K +0.324%G +0.003% | 5.5% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.44%E -5.73%K -24.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.809%E +0.231%K +0.324%G +0.003% | 5.5% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.44%E -5.73%K -24.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.809%E +0.231%K +0.324%G +0.003% | 5.5% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -8.16%E -6.32%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV +0.809%E +0.231%K +0.324%G +0.003% | 6.1% | 2026-11-02 13:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -2.07%E -0.609%K -0.863%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-11-02 13:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -9.58%E -7.54%K -35.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -2.07%E -0.609%K -0.863%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-11-02 12:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.82%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.39I 29.50%NM 28.18%EV -2.36%E -0.696%K -0.987%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-11-02 13:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.97%EV -2.46%E -1.80%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.03%EV -3.51%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-11-02 12:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -3.88%E -2.88%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -4.95%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-11-02 13:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.73%E -5.14%K -21.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -4.95%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-11-02 10:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.73%E -5.14%K -21.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -4.95%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-11-02 13:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.06%EV -4.60%E -3.43%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 28.94%EV -5.24%E -1.59%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-11-02 13:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.39%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-11-02 12:40 |
| picklebet_au🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.39%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-11-02 12:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.39%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-11-02 13:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.39%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-11-02 13:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.39%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-11-02 13:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.39%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-11-02 10:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 72.38%EV -11.72%E -9.45%K -48.81%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.62%EV -6.39%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-11-02 13:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.61%EV -4.60%E -3.43%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.39%EV -7.26%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-11-02 13:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.93%EV -1.75%E -1.27%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.21I 31.15%NM 30.07%EV -7.54%E -2.35%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-11-02 13:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -7.83%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-11-02 10:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.88%E -2.88%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.83%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 12:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.60%E -3.43%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -7.83%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.83%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-11-02 11:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.83%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-11-02 11:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.91%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.09%EV -8.98%E -2.84%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-11-02 11:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.95%EV -8.16%E -6.32%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.05%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -10.71%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-11-02 12:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -10.71%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-11-02 12:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -10.71%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-11-02 13:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -10.71%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-11-02 13:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.71%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-11-02 12:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 71.59%EV -12.43%E -10.10%K -54.03%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.41%EV -10.71%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-11-02 13:28 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -3.88%E -2.88%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -12.15%E -3.98%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-11-02 10:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -3.88%E -2.88%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -12.15%E -3.98%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-11-02 10:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.11%EV -7.44%E -5.73%K -24.81%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -12.15%E -3.98%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-11-02 13:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -1.75%E -1.27%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -13.59%E -4.53%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-11-02 13:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -1.75%E -1.27%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -13.59%E -4.53%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-11-02 12:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -13.59%E -4.53%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-11-02 12:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -13.59%E -4.53%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-11-02 12:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.09%EV -6.02%E -4.56%K -18.81%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -15.03%E -5.10%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-11-02 10:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 70.02%EV -13.14%E -10.77%K -59.72%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 29.98%EV -17.91%E -6.29%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 17.1% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 1.0% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.98% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.02% | 1.4% | 2026-11-02 13:16 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.98% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.02% | 1.4% | 2026-11-02 13:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.98% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.02% | 1.4% | 2026-11-02 13:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 71.22% | 3.39I 29.50%NM 28.78% | 2.5% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.43% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.57% | 2.9% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18% | 3.8% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |