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Daniel Merida Aguilar v Sebastian Baez
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local)
Prévision 71.20%1.40cote équitable
EV -1.75%
Avantage -1.27%
Kelly -4.60%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 1.38
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
68.49%71.24%70.97%73.47%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.221.331.341.3881.97%75.01%74.63%72.46%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Sebastian Baez (Visiteur)
Prévision 28.80%3.47cote équitable
EV +3.69%
Avantage +1.02%
Kelly +1.42%
Croissance +0.052%
avec la cote maximale 3.60
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
26.53%28.76%29.03%31.51%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.853.213.163.6035.09%31.17%31.70%27.78%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local) : 71.20% ; Sebastian Baez (Visiteur) : 28.80%. Pour Sebastian Baez (Visiteur), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 3.47. 7 opérateurs proposaient une cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure était 3.60, soit une espérance positive de +3.69%.
Cotes des opérateurs (60 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur ▼ | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -7.44%E -5.73%K -24.81%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV +3.69%E +1.02%K +1.42%G +0.052% | 4.7% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -8.16%E -6.32%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV +2.25%E +0.634%K +0.882%G +0.020% | 5.7% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.44%E -5.73%K -24.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.809%E +0.231%K +0.324%G +0.003% | 5.5% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.44%E -5.73%K -24.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.809%E +0.231%K +0.324%G +0.003% | 5.5% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.44%E -5.73%K -24.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.809%E +0.231%K +0.324%G +0.003% | 5.5% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.44%E -5.73%K -24.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.809%E +0.231%K +0.324%G +0.003% | 5.5% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -8.16%E -6.32%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV +0.809%E +0.231%K +0.324%G +0.003% | 6.1% | 2026-11-02 13:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -2.07%E -0.609%K -0.863%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-11-02 13:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -9.58%E -7.54%K -35.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -2.07%E -0.609%K -0.863%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-11-02 12:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.82%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.39I 29.50%NM 28.18%EV -2.36%E -0.696%K -0.987%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-11-02 13:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.97%EV -2.46%E -1.80%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.03%EV -3.51%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-11-02 12:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -3.88%E -2.88%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -4.95%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-11-02 13:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.73%E -5.14%K -21.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -4.95%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-11-02 10:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.73%E -5.14%K -21.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -4.95%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-11-02 13:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.06%EV -4.60%E -3.43%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 28.94%EV -5.24%E -1.59%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-11-02 13:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.39%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-11-02 12:40 |
| picklebet_au🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.39%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-11-02 12:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.39%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-11-02 13:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.39%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-11-02 13:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.39%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-11-02 13:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.39%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-11-02 10:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 72.38%EV -11.72%E -9.45%K -48.81%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.62%EV -6.39%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-11-02 13:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.61%EV -4.60%E -3.43%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.39%EV -7.26%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-11-02 13:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.93%EV -1.75%E -1.27%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.21I 31.15%NM 30.07%EV -7.54%E -2.35%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-11-02 13:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -7.83%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-11-02 10:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.88%E -2.88%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.83%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 12:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.60%E -3.43%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -7.83%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.83%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-11-02 11:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.83%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-11-02 11:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.91%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.09%EV -8.98%E -2.84%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-11-02 11:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.95%EV -8.16%E -6.32%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.05%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -10.71%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-11-02 12:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -10.71%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-11-02 12:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -10.71%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-11-02 13:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -10.71%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-11-02 13:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.71%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-11-02 12:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 71.59%EV -12.43%E -10.10%K -54.03%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.41%EV -10.71%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-11-02 13:28 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -3.88%E -2.88%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -12.15%E -3.98%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-11-02 10:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -3.88%E -2.88%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -12.15%E -3.98%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-11-02 10:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.11%EV -7.44%E -5.73%K -24.81%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -12.15%E -3.98%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-11-02 13:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -1.75%E -1.27%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -13.59%E -4.53%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-11-02 13:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -1.75%E -1.27%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -13.59%E -4.53%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-11-02 12:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -13.59%E -4.53%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-11-02 12:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -13.59%E -4.53%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-11-02 12:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.09%EV -6.02%E -4.56%K -18.81%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -15.03%E -5.10%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-11-02 10:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 70.02%EV -13.14%E -10.77%K -59.72%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 29.98%EV -17.91%E -6.29%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 17.1% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (7)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 1.0% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.98% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.02% | 1.4% | 2026-11-02 13:16 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.98% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.02% | 1.4% | 2026-11-02 13:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.98% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.02% | 1.4% | 2026-11-02 13:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 71.22% | 3.39I 29.50%NM 28.78% | 2.5% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.43% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.57% | 2.9% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18% | 3.8% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |