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Daniel Merida Aguilar v Sebastian Baez
收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →
胜负盘
Daniel Merida Aguilar (主队)
预测 71.20%1.40公平赔率
EV -1.75%
优势 -1.27%
Kelly -4.60%
增长率 +0.000%
假设最高赔率为 1.38
博彩公司预测分布
68.49%71.24%70.97%73.47%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.221.331.341.3881.97%75.01%74.63%72.46%最小值均值中位数最大值
Sebastian Baez (客队)
预测 28.80%3.47公平赔率
EV +3.69%
优势 +1.02%
Kelly +1.42%
增长率 +0.052%
假设最高赔率为 3.60
博彩公司预测分布
26.53%28.76%29.03%31.51%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.853.213.163.6035.09%31.17%31.70%27.78%最小值均值中位数最大值
按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Daniel Merida Aguilar (主队)：71.20%；Sebastian Baez (客队)：28.80%。 对于“Sebastian Baez (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为3.47。 当时有7家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为3.60，对应+3.69%的正期望值。
博彩公司赔率 (60 家博彩公司)
我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。
| 博彩公司 | 主队 | 客队 ▼ | 利润率 | 更新时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -7.44%E -5.73%K -24.81%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV +3.69%E +1.02%K +1.42%G +0.052% | 4.7% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -8.16%E -6.32%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV +2.25%E +0.634%K +0.882%G +0.020% | 5.7% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.44%E -5.73%K -24.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.809%E +0.231%K +0.324%G +0.003% | 5.5% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.44%E -5.73%K -24.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.809%E +0.231%K +0.324%G +0.003% | 5.5% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.44%E -5.73%K -24.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.809%E +0.231%K +0.324%G +0.003% | 5.5% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.44%E -5.73%K -24.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.809%E +0.231%K +0.324%G +0.003% | 5.5% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -8.16%E -6.32%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV +0.809%E +0.231%K +0.324%G +0.003% | 6.1% | 2026-11-02 13:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -2.07%E -0.609%K -0.863%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-11-02 13:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -9.58%E -7.54%K -35.48%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -2.07%E -0.609%K -0.863%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-11-02 12:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.82%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.39I 29.50%NM 28.18%EV -2.36%E -0.696%K -0.987%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-11-02 13:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.97%EV -2.46%E -1.80%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.03%EV -3.51%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-11-02 12:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -3.88%E -2.88%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -4.95%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-11-02 13:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.73%E -5.14%K -21.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -4.95%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-11-02 10:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.73%E -5.14%K -21.71%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -4.95%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-11-02 13:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.06%EV -4.60%E -3.43%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 28.94%EV -5.24%E -1.59%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-11-02 13:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.39%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-11-02 12:40 |
| picklebet_au🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.39%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-11-02 12:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.39%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-11-02 13:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.39%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-11-02 13:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.39%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-11-02 13:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.39%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-11-02 10:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 72.38%EV -11.72%E -9.45%K -48.81%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.62%EV -6.39%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-11-02 13:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.61%EV -4.60%E -3.43%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.39%EV -7.26%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-11-02 13:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.93%EV -1.75%E -1.27%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.21I 31.15%NM 30.07%EV -7.54%E -2.35%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-11-02 13:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -7.83%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-11-02 10:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.88%E -2.88%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.83%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 12:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.60%E -3.43%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -7.83%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.83%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-11-02 11:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.83%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-11-02 11:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.91%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.09%EV -8.98%E -2.84%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-11-02 11:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-11-02 10:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.95%EV -8.16%E -6.32%K -28.12%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.05%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -10.71%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-11-02 12:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -10.71%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-11-02 12:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -10.71%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-11-02 13:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -10.71%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-11-02 13:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.71%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-11-02 12:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 71.59%EV -12.43%E -10.10%K -54.03%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.41%EV -10.71%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-11-02 13:28 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -3.88%E -2.88%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -12.15%E -3.98%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-11-02 10:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -3.88%E -2.88%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -12.15%E -3.98%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-11-02 10:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.11%EV -7.44%E -5.73%K -24.81%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -12.15%E -3.98%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-11-02 13:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -1.75%E -1.27%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -13.59%E -4.53%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-11-02 13:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -1.75%E -1.27%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -13.59%E -4.53%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-11-02 12:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -13.59%E -4.53%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-11-02 12:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -13.59%E -4.53%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-11-02 12:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.09%EV -6.02%E -4.56%K -18.81%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -15.03%E -5.10%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-11-02 10:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 70.02%EV -13.14%E -10.77%K -59.72%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 29.98%EV -17.91%E -6.29%K -9.68%G +0.000% | 17.1% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率
更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。
博彩交易所 (7)
| 博彩公司 | 主队 | 客队 | 利润率 ▲ | 更新时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 1.0% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.98% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.02% | 1.4% | 2026-11-02 13:16 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.98% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.02% | 1.4% | 2026-11-02 13:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.98% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.02% | 1.4% | 2026-11-02 13:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 71.22% | 3.39I 29.50%NM 28.78% | 2.5% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.43% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.57% | 2.9% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18% | 3.8% | 2026-11-02 13:30 |