Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Daniel Merida Aguilar v Sebastian Baez

Inicio: 2026-11-02 13:31 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

60 corredores (20 en el análisis )

71%

29%

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local)

Predicción 71.20%1.40momio equitativo

EV -1.75%

Ventaja -1.27%

Kelly -4.60%

Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.38

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

68.49%71.24%70.97%73.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

1.221.331.341.3881.97%75.01%74.63%72.46%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Sebastian Baez (Visitante)

Predicción 28.80%3.47momio equitativo

EV +3.69%

Ventaja +1.02%

Kelly +1.42%

Crecimiento +0.052%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores

26.53%28.76%29.03%31.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Distribución de los momios

2.853.213.163.6035.09%31.17%31.70%27.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Daniel Merida Aguilar (Local): 71.20%; Sebastian Baez (Visitante): 28.80%. Para Sebastian Baez (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.47. 7 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.60, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +3.69%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (60 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

Corredor	Local	Visitante ▼	Margen	Actualizado
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -7.44%E -5.73%K -24.81%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV +3.69%E +1.02%K +1.42%G +0.052%	4.7%	2026-11-02 13:30
theScore Bet🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -8.16%E -6.32%K -28.12%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV +2.25%E +0.634%K +0.882%G +0.020%	5.7%	2026-11-02 13:30
NordicBet🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.44%E -5.73%K -24.81%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.809%E +0.231%K +0.324%G +0.003%	5.5%	2026-11-02 13:30
Betsson🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.44%E -5.73%K -24.81%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.809%E +0.231%K +0.324%G +0.003%	5.5%	2026-11-02 13:30
ReBet🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.44%E -5.73%K -24.81%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.809%E +0.231%K +0.324%G +0.003%	5.5%	2026-11-02 13:30
DraftKings🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.44%E -5.73%K -24.81%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.809%E +0.231%K +0.324%G +0.003%	5.5%	2026-11-02 13:30
Fanatics🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -8.16%E -6.32%K -28.12%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV +0.809%E +0.231%K +0.324%G +0.003%	6.1%	2026-11-02 13:29
Bovada🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -2.07%E -0.609%K -0.863%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-11-02 13:29
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -9.58%E -7.54%K -35.48%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -2.07%E -0.609%K -0.863%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-11-02 12:55
1xBet🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.82%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000%	3.39I 29.50%NM 28.18%EV -2.36%E -0.696%K -0.987%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-11-02 13:25
Coolbet🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 70.97%EV -2.46%E -1.80%K -6.65%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 29.03%EV -3.51%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000%	2.8%	2026-11-02 12:25
FanDuel🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -3.88%E -2.88%K -11.10%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -4.95%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-11-02 13:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.73%E -5.14%K -21.71%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -4.95%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-11-02 10:40
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.73%E -5.14%K -21.71%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -4.95%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-11-02 13:25
SportsBet🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 71.06%EV -4.60%E -3.43%K -13.52%G +0.000%	3.29I 30.40%NM 28.94%EV -5.24%E -1.59%K -2.29%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-11-02 13:15
LeoVegas🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.39%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-11-02 12:40
picklebet_au🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.39%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-11-02 12:40
Paddy Power🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.39%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-11-02 13:15
Sky Bet🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.39%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-11-02 13:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.39%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-11-02 13:15
BetMGM🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.39%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-11-02 10:55
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 72.38%EV -11.72%E -9.45%K -48.81%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 27.62%EV -6.39%E -1.97%K -2.84%G +0.000%	11.4%	2026-11-02 13:29
Marathon Bet🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 70.61%EV -4.60%E -3.43%K -13.52%G +0.000%	3.22I 31.06%NM 29.39%EV -7.26%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-11-02 13:20
Pinnacle🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 69.93%EV -1.75%E -1.27%K -4.60%G +0.000%	3.21I 31.15%NM 30.07%EV -7.54%E -2.35%K -3.41%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-11-02 13:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -7.83%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-11-02 10:45
Bet Right🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.88%E -2.88%K -11.10%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.83%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-11-02 12:25
Betr (AU)🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.60%E -3.43%K -13.52%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -7.83%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-11-02 13:30
Coral🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.83%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-11-02 11:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.83%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-11-02 11:00
GTbets🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.91%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000%	3.16I 31.65%NM 30.09%EV -8.98%E -2.84%K -4.16%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-11-02 11:15
Unibet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-11-02 10:20
TABtouch🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-11-02 10:25
Grosvenor🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-11-02 10:20
Casumo🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-11-02 10:20
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-11-02 10:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-11-02 10:20
Virgin Bet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-11-02 10:20
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-11-02 10:25
BetRivers🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-11-02 10:25
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-11-02 10:25
ATG (SE)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-11-02 10:20
Bally Bet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-11-02 10:25
Svenska Spel🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-11-02 10:20
betPARX🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-11-02 10:25
Fliff🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 70.95%EV -8.16%E -6.32%K -28.12%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.05%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-11-02 13:30
888sport🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -10.71%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-11-02 12:15
William Hill🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -10.71%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-11-02 12:20
888sport (SE)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -10.71%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-11-02 13:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.81%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -10.71%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-11-02 13:15
BoyleSports🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.71%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-11-02 12:40
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 71.59%EV -12.43%E -10.10%K -54.03%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 28.41%EV -10.71%E -3.46%K -5.10%G +0.000%	13.6%	2026-11-02 13:28
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -3.88%E -2.88%K -11.10%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -12.15%E -3.98%K -5.93%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-11-02 10:55
Neds🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -3.88%E -2.88%K -11.10%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -12.15%E -3.98%K -5.93%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-11-02 10:55
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 70.11%EV -7.44%E -5.73%K -24.81%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -12.15%E -3.98%K -5.93%G +0.000%	9.7%	2026-11-02 13:14
Betway🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -1.75%E -1.27%K -4.60%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -13.59%E -4.53%K -6.80%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-11-02 13:29
PlayUp🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -1.75%E -1.27%K -4.60%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -13.59%E -4.53%K -6.80%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-11-02 12:55
betano_uk🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -13.59%E -4.53%K -6.80%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-11-02 12:20
Bet Victor🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.08%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -13.59%E -4.53%K -6.80%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-11-02 12:20
PMU (FR)🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 69.09%EV -6.02%E -4.56%K -18.81%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -15.03%E -5.10%K -7.71%G +0.000%	9.7%	2026-11-02 10:20
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 70.02%EV -13.14%E -10.77%K -59.72%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 29.98%EV -17.91%E -6.29%K -9.68%G +0.000%	17.1%	2026-11-02 13:30

Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

Corredor	Local	Visitante	Margen ▲	Actualizado
Matchbook◎	1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72%	3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%	1.0%	2026-11-02 13:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.39I 71.94%NM 70.98%	3.40I 29.41%NM 29.02%	1.4%	2026-11-02 13:16
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.39I 71.94%NM 70.98%	3.40I 29.41%NM 29.02%	1.4%	2026-11-02 13:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.39I 71.94%NM 70.98%	3.40I 29.41%NM 29.02%	1.4%	2026-11-02 13:05
Novig◎	1.37I 72.99%NM 71.22%	3.39I 29.50%NM 28.78%	2.5%	2026-11-02 13:30
Smarkets◎	1.36I 73.53%NM 71.43%	3.40I 29.41%NM 28.57%	2.9%	2026-11-02 13:30
ProphetX◎	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%	3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%	3.8%	2026-11-02 13:30