Language:English
Daniel Altmaier v Alex Molcan
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Daniel Altmaier (Local)
Prediction 56.03%1.78fair odd
EV -0.830%
Edge -0.469%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.77
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.91%56.10%56.09%59.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.691.701.7762.50%59.11%58.82%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alex Molcan (Visit)
Prediction 43.97%2.27fair odd
EV +2.02%
Edge +0.869%
Kelly +1.53%
Growth +0.031%
assuming max odds 2.32
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.82%43.90%43.91%46.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.132.102.3250.00%47.04%47.62%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Daniel Altmaier (Local): 56.03%; Alex Molcan (Visit): 43.97%. For Alex Molcan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.27. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.32, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.02%.
Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.18%EV -10.36%E -6.47%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.82%EV +2.02%E +0.869%K +1.53%G +0.031% | 5.6% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -5.87%E -3.50%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -1.06%E -0.472%K -0.850%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -5.31%E -3.14%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV -1.50%E -0.671%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-16 10:29 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -5.31%E -3.14%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV -1.50%E -0.671%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.46%EV -3.63%E -2.11%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.54%EV -1.94%E -0.871%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -5.31%E -3.14%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -3.26%E -1.48%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-16 10:27 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.43%E -3.85%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.26%E -1.48%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.43%E -3.85%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.26%E -1.48%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.55%E -4.58%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.26%E -1.48%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -4.58%E -2.11%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.10%EV -5.31%E -3.14%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.90%EV -5.02%E -2.32%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-16 10:29 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.31%E -3.14%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.55%E -4.58%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.55%E -4.58%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -8.11%E -4.95%K -12.68%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -9.23%E -5.70%K -14.89%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -10.36%E -6.47%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-16 10:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -2.51%E -1.44%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -6.78%E -3.20%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.63%E -2.11%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.78%E -3.20%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.63%E -2.11%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.78%E -3.20%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.63%E -2.11%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.78%E -3.20%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.63%E -2.11%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.78%E -3.20%K -6.05%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.07%E -1.78%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.07%E -1.78%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.07%E -1.78%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 10:24 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.07%E -1.78%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -3.63%E -2.11%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.19%E -2.45%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-16 10:23 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.19%E -2.45%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-16 10:21 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.19%E -2.45%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.19%E -2.45%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-16 10:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -5.31%E -3.14%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.43%E -3.85%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.43%E -3.85%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -7.55%E -4.58%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-16 10:24 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -1.95%E -1.11%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -8.54%E -4.10%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-16 10:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -8.54%E -4.10%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -8.54%E -4.10%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -8.54%E -4.10%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%EV -0.830%E -0.469%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.09%EV -8.98%E -4.34%K -8.39%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%EV -5.87%E -3.50%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 44.92%EV -9.42%E -4.57%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.86%E -4.81%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.86%E -4.81%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.86%E -4.81%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -6.43%E -3.85%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -9.86%E -4.81%K -9.39%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.10%EV -8.67%E -5.32%K -13.77%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.90%EV -12.06%E -6.03%K -12.06%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46% | 0.5% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46% | 0.5% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46% | 0.5% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46% | 0.5% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.56% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.44% | 2.3% | 2026-04-16 10:30 |