L’École des cotes

Daniel Altmaier v Alex Molcan

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-16 11:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

51 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Daniel Altmaier (Local)

Prévision 56.03%1.78cote équitable
EV -0.830%
Avantage -0.469%
Kelly -1.08%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.77

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
53.91%56.10%56.09%59.18%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.601.691.701.7762.50%59.11%58.82%56.50%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Alex Molcan (Visiteur)

Prévision 43.97%2.27cote équitable
EV +2.02%
Avantage +0.869%
Kelly +1.53%
Croissance +0.031%

avec la cote maximale 2.32

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
40.82%43.90%43.91%46.09%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.002.132.102.3250.00%47.04%47.62%43.10%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (51 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
DraftKings1.60I 62.50%NM 59.18%EV -10.36%E -6.47%K -17.26%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.82%EV +2.02%E +0.869%K +1.53%G +0.031%5.6%2026-04-16 10:30
Winamax (DE)1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -5.87%E -3.50%K -8.64%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -1.06%E -0.472%K -0.850%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-16 10:30
LowVig.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -5.31%E -3.14%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV -1.50%E -0.671%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-16 10:29
BetOnline.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -5.31%E -3.14%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV -1.50%E -0.671%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-16 10:30
Pinnacle1.72I 58.14%NM 56.46%EV -3.63%E -2.11%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.54%EV -1.94%E -0.871%K -1.58%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-16 10:30
Bovada1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -5.31%E -3.14%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -3.26%E -1.48%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-16 10:27
PointsBet (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.43%E -3.85%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.26%E -1.48%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-16 10:30
Betway1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.43%E -3.85%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.26%E -1.48%K -2.72%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-16 10:30
PlayUp1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.55%E -4.58%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.26%E -1.48%K -2.72%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-16 10:30
Coolbet1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -4.58%E -2.11%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-16 10:30
Marathon Bet1.69I 59.17%NM 56.10%EV -5.31%E -3.14%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.90%EV -5.02%E -2.32%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-16 10:29
Bet Right1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-16 10:30
Betr (AU)1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.31%E -3.14%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-16 10:30
Betsson1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.55%E -4.58%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-16 10:30
NordicBet1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.55%E -4.58%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-16 10:30
Winamax (FR)1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -8.11%E -4.95%K -12.68%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-16 10:30
Fanatics1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -9.23%E -5.70%K -14.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-16 10:30
Betclic (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -10.36%E -6.47%K -17.26%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV -5.46%E -2.54%K -4.75%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-16 10:29
FanDuel1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -2.51%E -1.44%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -6.78%E -3.20%K -6.05%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-16 10:30
Unibet (SE)1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.63%E -2.11%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.78%E -3.20%K -6.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-16 10:30
Casumo1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.63%E -2.11%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.78%E -3.20%K -6.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-16 10:30
Unibet (NL)1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.63%E -2.11%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.78%E -3.20%K -6.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-16 10:30
Unibet1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.63%E -2.11%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.78%E -3.20%K -6.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-16 10:30
BoyleSports1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.07%E -1.78%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-16 10:30
Sky Bet1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.07%E -1.78%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-16 10:30
888sport1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.07%E -1.78%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-16 10:24
William Hill1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.07%E -1.78%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-16 10:30
SportsBet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -3.63%E -2.11%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-16 10:30
Unibet (FR)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.19%E -2.45%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-16 10:23
Codere (IT)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.19%E -2.45%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-16 10:21
BetUS1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.19%E -2.45%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-16 10:30
Caesars1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.19%E -2.45%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-16 10:29
Coral1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-16 10:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-16 10:30
TABtouch1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-16 10:30
BetRivers1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-16 10:30
BetMGM1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -5.31%E -3.14%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-16 10:30
Bet Victor1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.43%E -3.85%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-16 10:30
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.43%E -3.85%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-16 10:30
Everygame1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -7.55%E -4.58%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -7.66%E -3.65%K -6.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-16 10:24
GTbets1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -1.95%E -1.11%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -8.54%E -4.10%K -7.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-16 10:25
Grosvenor1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -8.54%E -4.10%K -7.91%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-16 10:30
LiveScore Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -8.54%E -4.10%K -7.91%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-16 10:30
Virgin Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -8.54%E -4.10%K -7.91%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-16 10:30
1xBet1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%EV -0.830%E -0.469%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.09%EV -8.98%E -4.34%K -8.39%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-16 10:30
LeoVegas1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%EV -5.87%E -3.50%K -8.64%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.92%EV -9.42%E -4.57%K -8.88%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-16 10:30
Tipico (DE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.86%E -4.81%K -9.39%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-16 10:30
Neds1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.86%E -4.81%K -9.39%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-16 10:30
Ladbrokes (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -4.75%E -2.80%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -9.86%E -4.81%K -9.39%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-16 10:30
LeoVegas (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -6.43%E -3.85%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -9.86%E -4.81%K -9.39%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-16 10:30
PMU (FR)1.63I 61.35%NM 55.10%EV -8.67%E -5.32%K -13.77%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.90%EV -12.06%E -6.03%K -12.06%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-16 10:30
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46%0.5%2026-04-16 10:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46%0.5%2026-04-16 10:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46%0.5%2026-04-16 10:30
Matchbook1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46%0.5%2026-04-16 10:30
Smarkets1.67I 59.88%NM 58.56%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.44%2.3%2026-04-16 10:30