L’École des cotes

Alexander Zverev v Flavio Cobolli

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-18 11:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

64 opérateurs (23 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Alexander Zverev (Local)

Prévision 80.38%1.24cote équitable
EV +0.469%
Avantage +0.375%
Kelly +1.88%
Croissance +0.009%

avec la cote maximale 1.25

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
78.85%80.33%80.40%83.08%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.121.181.181.2589.29%84.75%84.75%80.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Flavio Cobolli (Visiteur)

Prévision 19.62%5.10cote équitable
EV +7.94%
Avantage +1.44%
Kelly +1.76%
Croissance +0.140%

avec la cote maximale 5.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
16.92%19.67%19.60%21.15%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.404.774.755.5022.73%20.97%21.05%18.18%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (64 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
Bet Right1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -9.98%E -8.91%K -83.16%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV +7.94%E +1.44%K +1.76%G +0.140%7.5%2026-04-18 11:10
Pinnacle1.20I 83.33%NM 81.54%EV -3.55%E -2.96%K -17.75%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.46%EV +4.01%E +0.757%K +0.933%G +0.037%2.2%2026-04-18 11:10
Winamax (DE)1.19I 84.03%NM 81.38%EV -4.35%E -3.66%K -22.91%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.62%EV +2.05%E +0.394%K +0.488%G +0.010%3.3%2026-04-18 06:30
LowVig.ag1.18I 84.75%NM 81.36%EV -5.16%E -4.37%K -28.65%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.64%EV +1.07%E +0.207%K +0.257%G +0.003%4.2%2026-04-18 06:35
BetOnline.ag1.18I 84.75%NM 81.36%EV -5.16%E -4.37%K -28.65%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.64%EV +1.07%E +0.207%K +0.257%G +0.003%4.2%2026-04-18 06:35
FanDuel1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.96%E -5.09%K -35.06%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +0.085%E +0.017%K +0.021%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 10:30
Betclic (FR)1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -4.35%E -3.66%K -22.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -1.88%E -0.375%K -0.469%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-18 06:59
Fanatics1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.16%E -4.37%K -28.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -1.88%E -0.375%K -0.469%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-18 00:35
Bovada1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.16%E -4.37%K -28.65%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -1.88%E -0.375%K -0.469%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-18 03:45
BoyleSports1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.96%E -5.09%K -35.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.88%E -0.375%K -0.469%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-18 04:50
Sky Bet1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.37%E -7.34%K -59.80%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -1.88%E -0.375%K -0.469%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-18 10:30
Paddy Power1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.37%E -7.34%K -59.80%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -1.88%E -0.375%K -0.469%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-18 10:30
NetBet (FR)1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.37%E -7.34%K -59.80%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -1.88%E -0.375%K -0.469%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-18 10:50
DraftKings1.18I 84.75%NM 80.75%EV -5.16%E -4.37%K -28.65%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.25%EV -2.86%E -0.577%K -0.724%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-17 16:45
Unibet (UK)1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%EV -4.35%E -3.66%K -22.91%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%EV -3.84%E -0.784%K -0.984%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-18 08:00
Coolbet1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -5.16%E -4.37%K -28.65%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -3.84%E -0.784%K -0.984%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-18 10:01
ReBet1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -5.16%E -4.37%K -28.65%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -3.84%E -0.784%K -0.984%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-18 10:50
Tipico (DE)1.14I 87.72%NM 81.13%EV -8.37%E -7.34%K -59.80%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.87%EV -3.84%E -0.784%K -0.984%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-17 19:25
Betr (AU)1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -5.96%E -5.09%K -35.06%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -4.82%E -0.994%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-18 10:50
NordicBet1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -5.96%E -5.09%K -35.06%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -5.80%E -1.21%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-18 00:35
Unibet (FR)1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -5.96%E -5.09%K -35.06%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -5.80%E -1.21%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-18 00:36
Betsson1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -5.96%E -5.09%K -35.06%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -5.80%E -1.21%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-18 00:35
Codere (IT)1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -5.96%E -5.09%K -35.06%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -5.80%E -1.21%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-18 00:40
SportsBet1.16I 86.21%NM 80.54%EV -6.76%E -5.83%K -42.28%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -5.80%E -1.21%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-18 10:30
1xBet1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.55%E -2.96%K -17.75%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -6.78%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-18 11:10
BetRivers1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.35%E -3.66%K -22.91%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -6.78%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 07:20
LeoVegas1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.35%E -3.66%K -22.91%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -6.78%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 07:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.35%E -3.66%K -22.91%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -6.78%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 07:19
Casumo1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.35%E -3.66%K -22.91%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -6.78%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 07:20
Unibet1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.35%E -3.66%K -22.91%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -6.78%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 07:20
TABtouch1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.35%E -3.66%K -22.91%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -6.78%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 07:20
Grosvenor1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.35%E -3.66%K -22.91%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -6.78%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 07:20
Unibet (SE)1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.35%E -3.66%K -22.91%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -6.78%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 07:20
Unibet (NL)1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.35%E -3.66%K -22.91%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -6.78%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 07:20
betPARX1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.35%E -3.66%K -22.91%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -6.78%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 07:20
Bally Bet1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.35%E -3.66%K -22.91%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -6.78%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 07:20
Svenska Spel1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.35%E -3.66%K -22.91%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -6.78%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 07:20
ATG (SE)1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.35%E -3.66%K -22.91%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -6.78%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 07:20
Hard Rock Bet1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.35%E -3.66%K -22.91%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -6.78%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 07:19
Betway1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -5.16%E -4.37%K -28.65%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -6.78%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-18 11:00
BetUS1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -5.16%E -4.37%K -28.65%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -6.78%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-17 16:49
Fliff1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -5.96%E -5.09%K -35.06%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -6.78%E -1.43%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-18 10:30
GTbets1.25I 80.00%NM 78.99%EV +0.469%E +0.375%K +1.88%G +0.009%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.01%EV -7.76%E -1.65%K -2.10%G +0.000%1.3%2026-04-17 15:50
Marathon Bet1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -4.35%E -3.66%K -22.91%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -7.76%E -1.65%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-18 11:10
Winamax (FR)1.17I 85.47%NM 80.07%EV -5.96%E -5.09%K -35.06%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -7.76%E -1.65%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-18 06:30
theScore Bet1.19I 84.03%NM 79.62%EV -4.35%E -3.66%K -22.91%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.38%EV -8.75%E -1.88%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-17 23:31
PlayUp1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -4.35%E -3.66%K -22.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -9.73%E -2.11%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-17 17:39
BetMGM1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -4.35%E -3.66%K -22.91%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -9.73%E -2.11%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-17 20:01
LiveScore Bet1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -5.96%E -5.09%K -35.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -9.73%E -2.11%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-18 07:20
Virgin Bet1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -5.96%E -5.09%K -35.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -9.73%E -2.11%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-18 07:20
PMU (FR)1.16I 86.21%NM 79.86%EV -6.76%E -5.83%K -42.28%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -9.73%E -2.11%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-18 03:15
888sport1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.55%E -2.96%K -17.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -11.69%E -2.60%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-17 14:20
William Hill1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.55%E -2.96%K -17.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -11.69%E -2.60%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-17 14:19
888sport (SE)1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.55%E -2.96%K -17.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -11.69%E -2.60%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-17 22:20
Mr Green (SE)1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.55%E -2.96%K -17.75%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -11.69%E -2.60%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-17 22:20
PointsBet (AU)1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.16%E -4.37%K -28.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -11.69%E -2.60%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-17 19:24
Coral1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.16%E -4.37%K -28.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -11.69%E -2.60%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-17 20:00
Ladbrokes (UK)1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.16%E -4.37%K -28.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -11.69%E -2.60%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-17 20:01
Bet Victor1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.96%E -5.09%K -35.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -11.69%E -2.60%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-18 10:28
Everygame1.16I 86.21%NM 79.51%EV -6.76%E -5.83%K -42.28%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -11.69%E -2.60%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-18 05:44
Ladbrokes (AU)1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -5.16%E -4.37%K -28.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -13.65%E -3.10%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-17 20:00
Neds1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -5.16%E -4.37%K -28.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -13.65%E -3.10%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-17 20:01
Caesars1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -5.16%E -4.37%K -28.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -13.65%E -3.10%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-17 17:30
TAB1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -5.16%E -4.37%K -28.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -13.65%E -3.10%K -4.02%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-17 21:24
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Matchbook1.20I 83.33%NM 82.86%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.14%0.6%2026-04-18 11:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39%0.9%2026-04-18 11:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39%0.9%2026-04-18 11:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.20I 83.33%NM 82.61%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.39%0.9%2026-04-18 11:10
Smarkets1.19I 84.03%NM 82.73%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.27%1.6%2026-04-18 10:50
Novig1.19I 84.03%NM 82.27%5.52I 18.12%NM 17.73%2.1%2026-04-18 11:10