Language:English
Valentin Vacherot v Alex de Minaur
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Valentin Vacherot (Local)
Prediction 34.42%2.91fair odd
EV +10.14%
Edge +3.17%
Kelly +4.61%
Growth +0.467%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.73%33.91%34.57%36.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.592.792.753.2038.61%35.85%36.36%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alex de Minaur (Visit)
Prediction 65.58%1.52fair odd
EV +0.995%
Edge +0.646%
Kelly +1.84%
Growth +0.018%
assuming max odds 1.54
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.17%66.09%65.43%71.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.421.431.5477.52%70.33%69.93%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Valentin Vacherot (Local): 34.42%; Alex de Minaur (Visit): 65.58%. For Valentin Vacherot (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.91. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.14%.
Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV +10.14%E +3.17%K +4.61%G +0.467% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -11.47%E -8.49%K -32.76%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-10 15:34 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV +10.14%E +3.17%K +4.61%G +0.467% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.27%EV -15.40%E -11.94%K -53.10%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-10 15:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV +6.70%E +2.16%K +3.19%G +0.214% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -12.78%E -9.61%K -38.72%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-10 15:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +4.98%E +1.63%K +2.43%G +0.121% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -9.50%E -6.88%K -24.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-10 15:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +4.98%E +1.63%K +2.43%G +0.121% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -9.50%E -6.88%K -24.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-10 15:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +4.98%E +1.63%K +2.43%G +0.121% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -9.50%E -6.88%K -24.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-10 15:34 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV +4.98%E +1.63%K +2.43%G +0.121% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.48%EV -12.12%E -9.05%K -35.65%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-10 15:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +3.26%E +1.09%K +1.63%G +0.053% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -8.19%E -5.85%K -20.47%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-10 15:33 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV +3.26%E +1.09%K +1.63%G +0.053% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -10.81%E -7.95%K -30.03%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-10 15:34 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV +3.26%E +1.09%K +1.63%G +0.053% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -12.78%E -9.61%K -38.72%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-10 15:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV +1.54%E +0.521%K +0.787%G +0.012% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.45%EV -10.81%E -7.95%K -30.03%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-10 15:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV +1.54%E +0.521%K +0.787%G +0.012% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.45%EV -10.81%E -7.95%K -30.03%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-10 15:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.41%EV +1.19%E +0.405%K +0.614%G +0.007% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.59%EV -7.53%E -5.34%K -18.37%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-10 15:35 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -0.185%E -0.064%K -0.098%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -9.50%E -6.88%K -24.99%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-10 15:33 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.65%EV -1.91%E -0.669%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.35%EV -13.43%E -10.18%K -41.98%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-04-10 15:34 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.81I 35.59%NM 34.50%EV -3.28%E -1.17%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.50%EV -2.94%E -1.99%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-10 10:14 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.63%E -1.30%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.91%E -3.38%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-10 15:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.63%E -1.30%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.91%E -3.38%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-10 15:31 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -3.63%E -1.30%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.22%E -4.35%K -14.46%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-10 15:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -3.63%E -1.30%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.22%E -4.35%K -14.46%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-10 15:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -3.63%E -1.30%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.22%E -4.35%K -14.46%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-10 15:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -3.63%E -1.30%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.22%E -4.35%K -14.46%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-10 15:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -3.63%E -1.30%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -8.19%E -5.85%K -20.47%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-10 15:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -3.63%E -1.30%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -8.19%E -5.85%K -20.47%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-10 15:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -3.63%E -1.30%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -8.19%E -5.85%K -20.47%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-10 15:35 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -3.63%E -1.30%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -8.19%E -5.85%K -20.47%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-10 15:34 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.98%EV -4.66%E -1.68%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.02%EV -2.28%E -1.53%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-10 15:01 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.98%EV -4.66%E -1.68%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.02%EV -2.28%E -1.53%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-10 15:01 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.77I 36.10%NM 33.41%EV -4.66%E -1.68%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 66.59%EV -8.84%E -6.36%K -22.67%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-10 15:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -5.35%E -1.94%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -4.25%E -2.91%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-10 14:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.35%E -1.94%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.91%E -3.38%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-10 15:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.35%E -1.94%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.91%E -3.38%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-10 15:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.35%E -1.94%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.56%E -3.86%K -12.64%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-10 06:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -5.35%E -1.94%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -6.22%E -4.35%K -14.46%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-10 15:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -5.35%E -1.94%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -6.22%E -4.35%K -14.46%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-10 15:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -5.35%E -1.94%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -6.87%E -4.84%K -16.37%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-10 15:35 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -7.07%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -2.28%E -1.53%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-10 15:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.07%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.91%E -3.38%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-10 15:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.07%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.91%E -3.38%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-10 15:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.07%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.91%E -3.38%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-10 15:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.07%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.91%E -3.38%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-10 15:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.07%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.56%E -3.86%K -12.64%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-10 15:33 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -7.07%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -6.22%E -4.35%K -14.46%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-10 14:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.31%EV -7.07%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.69%EV -7.53%E -5.34%K -18.37%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-10 15:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -7.07%E -2.62%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -8.19%E -5.85%K -20.47%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-10 15:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.67I 37.45%NM 36.58%EV -8.10%E -3.03%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 63.42%EV +0.995%E +0.646%K +1.84%G +0.018% | 2.4% | 2026-04-10 15:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -8.79%E -3.32%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -3.60%E -2.45%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-10 15:27 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.82%E -3.75%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.56%E -3.86%K -12.64%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-10 15:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.82%E -3.75%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.56%E -3.86%K -12.64%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-10 15:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.82%E -3.75%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.56%E -3.86%K -12.64%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-10 15:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.82%E -3.75%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.56%E -3.86%K -12.64%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-10 15:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.82%E -3.75%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.56%E -3.86%K -12.64%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-10 15:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -10.51%E -4.04%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -1.63%E -1.09%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-09 23:44 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -10.51%E -4.04%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -2.94%E -1.99%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-10 15:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -10.51%E -4.04%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -5.56%E -3.86%K -12.64%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-10 12:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -10.51%E -4.04%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -5.56%E -3.86%K -12.64%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-10 12:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -10.51%E -4.04%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%EV -6.87%E -4.84%K -16.37%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-10 15:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -10.51%E -4.04%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.00%EV -8.19%E -5.85%K -20.47%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-10 15:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.59I 38.61%NM 36.83%EV -10.86%E -4.19%K -6.83%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.17%EV -0.972%E -0.644%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-10 15:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.31% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.69% | 0.3% | 2026-04-10 15:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.48% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.52% | 0.6% | 2026-04-10 15:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 0.7% | 2026-04-10 15:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.48% | 0.7% | 2026-04-10 15:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.89% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.11% | 3.1% | 2026-04-10 15:35 |
| Novig◎ | 2.51I 39.84%NM 38.18% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.82% | 4.4% | 2026-04-10 15:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99% | 8.2% | 2026-04-10 15:35 |