Language:English
Roberto Bautista Agut v Matteo Berrettini
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Roberto Bautista Agut (Local)
Prediction 26.91%3.72fair odd
EV +3.61%
Edge +0.938%
Kelly +1.27%
Growth +0.046%
assuming max odds 3.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.80%26.91%27.08%30.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.513.503.8532.26%28.51%28.57%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Matteo Berrettini (Visit)
Prediction 73.09%1.37fair odd
EV -2.79%
Edge -2.10%
Kelly -8.47%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.98%73.09%72.92%75.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.301.301.3380.00%77.07%76.92%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Roberto Bautista Agut (Local): 26.91%; Matteo Berrettini (Visit): 73.09%. For Roberto Bautista Agut (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.72. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.61%.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV +3.61%E +0.938%K +1.27%G +0.046% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.20%EV -7.18%E -5.65%K -26.59%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.82I 26.18%NM 25.39%EV +2.81%E +0.734%K +0.995%G +0.028% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.61%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89%EV +0.922%E +0.246%K +0.335%G +0.003% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.11%EV -4.26%E -3.25%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-07 08:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.84%EV +0.383%E +0.103%K +0.140%G +0.001% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.16%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-07 08:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.68I 27.17%NM 26.10%EV -0.962%E -0.261%K -0.359%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.90%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.68I 27.17%NM 26.10%EV -0.962%E -0.261%K -0.359%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.90%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.66I 27.32%NM 26.06%EV -1.50%E -0.410%K -0.564%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.94%EV -5.72%E -4.43%K -19.71%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%EV -1.77%E -0.485%K -0.668%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.44%EV -3.52%E -2.67%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-07 08:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -3.12%E -0.865%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.26%E -3.25%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-07 08:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -3.12%E -0.865%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-07 08:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -3.12%E -0.865%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-07 05:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -3.12%E -0.865%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.72%E -4.43%K -19.71%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -3.12%E -0.865%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.72%E -4.43%K -19.71%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -3.12%E -0.865%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -7.18%E -5.65%K -26.59%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-07 08:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -4.46%E -1.26%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -4.46%E -1.26%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 08:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -4.46%E -1.26%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 08:15 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -4.46%E -1.26%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.54I 28.25%NM 27.16%EV -4.73%E -1.34%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.84%EV -3.52%E -2.67%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.53I 28.33%NM 27.07%EV -5.00%E -1.42%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.93%EV -4.26%E -3.25%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-07 08:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.26%E -3.25%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-07 08:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-07 08:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-07 08:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-07 08:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-07 08:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-07 08:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-07 08:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-07 08:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-07 08:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-07 08:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-07 08:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-07 08:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-07 08:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-07 08:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-07 08:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-07 08:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-07 08:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-07 08:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -6.45%E -5.04%K -23.03%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -5.81%E -1.66%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -8.64%E -6.91%K -34.56%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-07 08:54 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.15%E -2.07%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-07 08:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.15%E -2.07%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-07 08:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.15%E -2.07%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -8.50%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -4.26%E -3.25%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-07 04:44 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.50%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-07 04:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.50%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-07 04:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -8.50%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -5.72%E -4.43%K -19.71%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-07 08:15 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -8.50%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -6.45%E -5.04%K -23.03%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-07 08:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.50%E -2.50%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -7.18%E -5.65%K -26.59%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-07 01:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -9.84%E -2.94%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.20%EV -5.72%E -4.43%K -19.71%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-07 08:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -9.84%E -2.94%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.20%EV -5.72%E -4.43%K -19.71%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-07 08:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -9.84%E -2.94%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.20%EV -5.72%E -4.43%K -19.71%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-07 08:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -11.19%E -3.39%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-07 04:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -11.19%E -3.39%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -4.99%E -3.84%K -16.62%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-07 04:44 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -12.53%E -3.86%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -5.72%E -4.43%K -19.71%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-07 08:53 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -16.57%E -5.35%K -7.89%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -2.79%E -2.10%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-06 09:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 0.8% | 2026-04-07 08:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 0.8% | 2026-04-07 08:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 0.8% | 2026-04-07 08:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 0.8% | 2026-04-07 08:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.67% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.33% | 1.3% | 2026-04-07 08:55 |
| Novig◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.93% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.07% | 1.5% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.62% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.38% | 2.8% | 2026-04-07 08:55 |