Language:English
Lorenzo Musetti v Valentin Vacherot
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Lorenzo Musetti (Local)
Prediction 69.66%1.44fair odd
EV +5.88%
Edge +3.87%
Kelly +11.31%
Growth +0.665%
assuming max odds 1.52
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.19%69.29%69.99%74.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.381.351.5280.00%72.64%74.07%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Valentin Vacherot (Visit)
Prediction 30.34%3.30fair odd
EV +10.75%
Edge +2.94%
Kelly +4.06%
Growth +0.436%
assuming max odds 3.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.77%30.71%30.01%37.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.503.003.053.6540.00%33.30%32.79%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lorenzo Musetti (Local): 69.66%; Valentin Vacherot (Visit): 30.34%. For Valentin Vacherot (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.30. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.75%.
Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV +5.88%E +3.87%K +11.31%G +0.665% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -24.15%E -9.66%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-08 15:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.79%EV +4.49%E +2.99%K +8.98%G +0.403% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.21%EV -16.26%E -5.89%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-04-08 16:01 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.62%EV +4.49%E +2.99%K +8.98%G +0.403% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV -16.86%E -6.15%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-08 15:57 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.62%EV +4.49%E +2.99%K +8.98%G +0.403% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV -16.86%E -6.15%K -9.69%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-08 15:57 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV +3.09%E +2.09%K +6.45%G +0.200% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -19.60%E -7.39%K -11.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-08 15:53 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV +3.09%E +2.09%K +6.45%G +0.200% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -24.15%E -9.66%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-08 15:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV +3.09%E +2.09%K +6.45%G +0.200% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -24.15%E -9.66%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-08 15:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV +2.40%E +1.63%K +5.10%G +0.122% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -16.56%E -6.02%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-08 15:33 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV +2.40%E +1.63%K +5.10%G +0.122% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -16.56%E -6.02%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-08 15:34 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.92%EV +2.40%E +1.63%K +5.10%G +0.122% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.08%EV -17.47%E -6.42%K -10.16%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-08 15:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV +2.40%E +1.63%K +5.10%G +0.122% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -19.60%E -7.39%K -11.88%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-08 15:53 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV +1.70%E +1.17%K +3.70%G +0.063% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -16.56%E -6.02%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-08 15:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV +1.70%E +1.17%K +3.70%G +0.063% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -18.08%E -6.70%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-08 15:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV +0.308%E +0.214%K +0.701%G +0.002% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -16.56%E -6.02%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-08 15:34 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV +0.308%E +0.214%K +0.701%G +0.002% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -16.56%E -6.02%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-08 15:55 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV +0.308%E +0.214%K +0.701%G +0.002% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -21.11%E -8.12%K -13.20%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-08 15:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.27%EV -0.388%E -0.271%K -0.903%G +0.000% | 2.81I 35.59%NM 33.73%EV -14.74%E -5.25%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-08 15:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -0.388%E -0.271%K -0.903%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -18.08%E -6.70%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-08 15:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.48%E -1.77%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -12.01%E -4.14%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -2.48%E -1.77%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -15.04%E -5.37%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -2.48%E -1.77%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -15.04%E -5.37%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-08 16:01 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -2.48%E -1.77%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -16.56%E -6.02%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -2.48%E -1.77%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -16.56%E -6.02%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -2.91%E -0.909%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.94%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-08 16:01 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.26%E -3.87%K -14.62%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.98%E -2.99%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.96%E -4.42%K -17.03%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -2.91%E -0.909%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.96%E -4.42%K -17.03%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -2.91%E -0.909%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.96%E -4.42%K -17.03%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -2.91%E -0.909%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.96%E -4.42%K -17.03%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -2.91%E -0.909%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.96%E -4.42%K -17.03%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -2.91%E -0.909%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.96%E -4.42%K -17.03%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -2.91%E -0.909%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.26%EV -5.96%E -4.42%K -17.03%G +0.000% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.74%EV -3.21%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.96%E -4.42%K -17.03%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -4.42%E -1.40%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -5.96%E -4.42%K -17.03%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -5.94%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -5.96%E -4.42%K -17.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.98%E -2.99%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -6.66%E -4.97%K -19.58%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV +0.127%E +0.038%K +0.055%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -6.66%E -4.97%K -19.58%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -5.94%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -6.66%E -4.97%K -19.58%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -5.94%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.76%EV -6.66%E -4.97%K -19.58%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.24%EV -10.49%E -3.56%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -7.35%E -5.53%K -22.28%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV +1.64%E +0.491%K +0.699%G +0.011% | 5.0% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -7.35%E -5.53%K -22.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -5.94%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -7.35%E -5.53%K -22.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -5.94%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.56%EV -7.35%E -5.53%K -22.28%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -12.01%E -4.14%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -8.05%E -6.10%K -25.16%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -1.39%E -0.428%K -0.618%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -8.05%E -6.10%K -25.16%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -1.39%E -0.428%K -0.618%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.79%EV -8.05%E -6.10%K -25.16%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -7.46%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.79%EV -8.05%E -6.10%K -25.16%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -7.46%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -8.75%E -6.68%K -28.22%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV +6.19%E +1.77%K +2.48%G +0.154% | 4.9% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -8.75%E -6.68%K -28.22%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV +0.127%E +0.038%K +0.055%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.95%EV -8.75%E -6.68%K -28.22%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -2.91%E -0.909%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.63%EV -8.75%E -6.68%K -28.22%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.37%EV -4.42%E -1.40%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -9.44%E -7.26%K -31.48%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV +0.127%E +0.038%K +0.055%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -9.44%E -7.26%K -31.48%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -1.39%E -0.428%K -0.618%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -10.14%E -7.86%K -34.97%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -1.39%E -0.428%K -0.618%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.27%EV -10.14%E -7.86%K -34.97%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -2.91%E -0.909%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-08 16:01 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -10.14%E -7.86%K -34.97%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.07%EV -8.98%E -2.99%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -10.84%E -8.47%K -38.70%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV +10.75%E +2.94%K +4.06%G +0.436% | 5.5% | 2026-04-08 16:01 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -12.93%E -10.34%K -51.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV +9.23%E +2.56%K +3.55%G +0.328% | 7.8% | 2026-04-08 16:01 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 74.43% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.57% | 0.3% | 2026-04-08 16:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.57% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43% | 0.8% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.63% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.37% | 1.7% | 2026-04-08 16:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.82% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.18% | 1.9% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.02% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.98% | 2.1% | 2026-04-08 16:01 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.60% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.40% | 2.8% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.61% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.39% | 6.1% | 2026-04-08 16:00 |