Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Joao Fonseca v Arthur Rinderknech

Início: 2026-04-08 11:00 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

58 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Joao Fonseca (Local)

Previsão 73.17%1.37odd justa
EV -2.68%
Vantagem -2.02%
Kelly -8.14%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.33

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
71.27%73.42%73.07%76.78%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.201.271.261.3383.33%78.91%79.37%75.19%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Arthur Rinderknech (Visitante)

Previsão 26.83%3.73odd justa
EV +10.01%
Vantagem +2.44%
Kelly +3.23%
Crescimento +0.323%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.10

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
23.22%26.58%26.93%28.73%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.303.693.734.1030.30%27.11%26.85%24.39%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Joao Fonseca (Local): 73.17%; Arthur Rinderknech (Visitante): 26.83%. Para Arthur Rinderknech (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.73. 29 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 4.10, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +10.01%.

Odds das casas de apostas (58 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
SportsBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -9.27%E -7.48%K -38.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +10.01%E +2.44%K +3.23%G +0.323%5.0%2026-04-08 10:45
GTbets🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.76%EV -6.34%E -4.96%K -22.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24%EV +7.32%E +1.83%K +2.44%G +0.179%3.1%2026-04-08 10:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -7.07%E -5.57%K -26.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV +7.32%E +1.83%K +2.44%G +0.179%3.7%2026-04-08 10:55
Bet Right🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -9.27%E -7.48%K -38.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV +7.32%E +1.83%K +2.44%G +0.179%5.6%2026-04-08 10:42
NetBet (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -10.73%E -8.80%K -48.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV +7.32%E +1.83%K +2.44%G +0.179%7.0%2026-04-08 10:44
ReBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.82%EV -7.81%E -6.20%K -30.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.18%EV +5.98%E +1.51%K +2.03%G +0.121%4.7%2026-04-08 10:34
FanDuel🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -7.81%E -6.20%K -30.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV +4.64%E +1.19%K +1.60%G +0.074%5.0%2026-04-08 10:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -7.81%E -6.20%K -30.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV +4.64%E +1.19%K +1.60%G +0.074%5.0%2026-04-08 10:55
Unibet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -7.81%E -6.20%K -30.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV +4.64%E +1.19%K +1.60%G +0.074%5.0%2026-04-08 10:55
Casumo🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -7.81%E -6.20%K -30.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV +4.64%E +1.19%K +1.60%G +0.074%5.0%2026-04-08 10:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -7.81%E -6.20%K -30.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV +4.64%E +1.19%K +1.60%G +0.074%5.0%2026-04-08 10:55
betPARX🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -7.81%E -6.20%K -30.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV +4.64%E +1.19%K +1.60%G +0.074%5.0%2026-04-08 10:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -7.81%E -6.20%K -30.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV +4.64%E +1.19%K +1.60%G +0.074%5.0%2026-04-08 10:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -7.81%E -6.20%K -30.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV +4.64%E +1.19%K +1.60%G +0.074%5.0%2026-04-08 10:55
PlayUp🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -8.54%E -6.83%K -34.15%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV +3.30%E +0.857%K +1.16%G +0.038%6.0%2026-04-08 10:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.95%EV -6.34%E -4.96%K -22.65%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 25.05%EV +2.76%E +0.721%K +0.976%G +0.027%4.2%2026-04-08 10:42
BetOnline.ag🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.95%EV -6.34%E -4.96%K -22.65%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 25.05%EV +2.76%E +0.721%K +0.976%G +0.027%4.2%2026-04-08 10:43
Unibet (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -7.81%E -6.20%K -30.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV +1.96%E +0.515%K +0.699%G +0.014%5.7%2026-04-08 10:34
Caesars🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -8.54%E -6.83%K -34.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV +1.96%E +0.515%K +0.699%G +0.014%6.3%2026-04-08 10:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -8.54%E -6.83%K -34.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV +1.96%E +0.515%K +0.699%G +0.014%6.3%2026-04-08 10:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -8.54%E -6.83%K -34.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV +1.96%E +0.515%K +0.699%G +0.014%6.3%2026-04-08 10:55
TABtouch🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -8.54%E -6.83%K -34.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV +1.96%E +0.515%K +0.699%G +0.014%6.3%2026-04-08 10:55
Grosvenor🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -8.54%E -6.83%K -34.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV +1.96%E +0.515%K +0.699%G +0.014%6.3%2026-04-08 10:55
Bovada🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.61%E -4.35%K -19.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV +0.615%E +0.164%K +0.223%G +0.001%4.2%2026-04-08 10:51
Betr (AU)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -7.81%E -6.20%K -30.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV +0.615%E +0.164%K +0.223%G +0.001%6.0%2026-04-08 10:42
Bet Victor🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -8.54%E -6.83%K -34.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV +0.615%E +0.164%K +0.223%G +0.001%6.7%2026-04-08 10:50
LeoVegas🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -10.00%E -8.13%K -43.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV +0.615%E +0.164%K +0.223%G +0.001%8.0%2026-04-08 10:55
Paddy Power🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -10.73%E -8.80%K -48.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV +0.615%E +0.164%K +0.223%G +0.001%8.6%2026-04-08 10:50
Everygame🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -10.73%E -8.80%K -48.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV +0.615%E +0.164%K +0.223%G +0.001%8.6%2026-04-08 10:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -8.54%E -6.83%K -34.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -0.727%E -0.196%K -0.269%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-08 10:42
Neds🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -8.54%E -6.83%K -34.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -0.727%E -0.196%K -0.269%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-08 10:42
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.05%EV -10.00%E -8.13%K -43.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV -0.727%E -0.196%K -0.269%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-08 10:55
DraftKings🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.14%EV -6.34%E -4.96%K -22.65%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 25.86%EV -1.53%E -0.417%K -0.574%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-08 10:55
Bally Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -6.34%E -4.96%K -22.65%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -2.07%E -0.567%K -0.781%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-08 10:45
Pinnacle🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 73.19%EV -2.68%E -2.02%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.81%EV -2.61%E -0.718%K -0.991%G +0.000%2.7%2026-04-08 10:55
BetMGM🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -7.07%E -5.57%K -26.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -3.41%E -0.947%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-08 10:55
TAB🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -7.81%E -6.20%K -30.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -3.41%E -0.947%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-08 10:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -8.54%E -6.83%K -34.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -3.41%E -0.947%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-08 10:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.00%EV -12.20%E -10.16%K -60.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -3.41%E -0.947%K -1.31%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-08 10:55
Coolbet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.88%E -3.75%K -16.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -4.75%E -1.34%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-08 10:55
Fliff🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.11%EV -9.27%E -7.48%K -38.62%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89%EV -4.75%E -1.34%K -1.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-08 10:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.88%E -3.75%K -16.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.09%E -1.74%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-08 10:50
William Hill🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.88%E -3.75%K -16.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.09%E -1.74%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-08 10:42
BoyleSports🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.61%E -4.35%K -19.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -6.09%E -1.74%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-08 10:55
888sport🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.61%E -4.35%K -19.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -6.09%E -1.74%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-08 10:55
theScore Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.61%E -4.35%K -19.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -6.09%E -1.74%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-08 10:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.61%E -4.35%K -19.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -6.09%E -1.74%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-08 10:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.61%E -4.35%K -19.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -6.09%E -1.74%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-08 10:55
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -6.34%E -4.96%K -22.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -6.09%E -1.74%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-08 10:55
Betsson🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.88%E -3.75%K -16.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.43%E -2.15%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-08 10:54
NordicBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.88%E -3.75%K -16.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.43%E -2.15%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-08 10:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -6.34%E -4.96%K -22.65%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -7.43%E -2.15%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-08 10:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -5.61%E -4.35%K -19.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -8.78%E -2.58%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-08 10:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.20%EV -5.61%E -4.35%K -19.35%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -10.12%E -3.02%K -4.31%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-08 10:55
Betway🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.68%E -2.02%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -11.46%E -3.47%K -4.98%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-08 10:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -4.88%E -3.75%K -16.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -11.46%E -3.47%K -4.98%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-08 10:50
Fanatics🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.90%EV -5.61%E -4.35%K -19.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -11.46%E -3.47%K -4.98%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-08 10:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.21%EV -7.07%E -5.57%K -26.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -11.46%E -3.47%K -4.98%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-08 10:55
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (7)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.37I 72.99%NM 72.98%3.70I 27.03%NM 27.02%0.0%2026-04-08 10:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.36I 73.53%NM 73.39%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.61%0.2%2026-04-08 10:55
Smarkets1.37I 72.99%NM 72.71%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.29%0.4%2026-04-08 10:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.40I 71.43%NM 71.13%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87%0.4%2026-04-08 10:55
Matchbook1.36I 73.53%NM 72.58%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.42%1.3%2026-04-08 10:55
ProphetX1.36I 73.53%NM 72.30%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.70%1.7%2026-04-08 10:55
Novig1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%6.7%2026-04-08 10:50