Language:English
Hubert Hurkacz v Luciano Darderi
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Hubert Hurkacz (Local)
Prediction 31.45%3.18fair odd
EV +3.79%
Edge +1.15%
Kelly +1.65%
Growth +0.063%
assuming max odds 3.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.94%31.33%31.64%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.982.983.3035.71%33.60%33.61%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Luciano Darderi (Visit)
Prediction 68.55%1.46fair odd
EV -2.66%
Edge -1.88%
Kelly -6.34%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.67%68.67%68.36%71.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.391.401.4275.19%72.00%71.43%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hubert Hurkacz (Local): 31.45%; Luciano Darderi (Visit): 68.55%. For Hubert Hurkacz (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.18. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.79%.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV +3.79%E +1.15%K +1.65%G +0.063% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -7.46%E -5.53%K -21.32%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-07 08:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.29I 30.40%NM 28.94%EV +3.48%E +1.06%K +1.52%G +0.053% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.06%EV -8.15%E -6.08%K -23.96%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV +2.22%E +0.684%K +0.988%G +0.022% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -8.83%E -6.64%K -26.76%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.09%EV +1.59%E +0.493%K +0.714%G +0.011% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.91%EV -4.72%E -3.40%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-04-07 08:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.14I 31.85%NM 30.38%EV -1.24%E -0.394%K -0.578%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.62%EV -6.09%E -4.45%K -16.46%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-07 08:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.11I 32.15%NM 30.89%EV -2.18%E -0.701%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.11%EV -4.72%E -3.40%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.11I 32.15%NM 30.89%EV -2.18%E -0.701%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.11%EV -4.72%E -3.40%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.50%E -0.805%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.78%E -4.98%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-07 08:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.50%E -0.805%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.78%E -4.98%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-07 08:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -2.50%E -0.805%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -8.83%E -6.64%K -26.76%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -4.07%E -1.33%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -2.66%E -1.88%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-07 08:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -4.07%E -1.33%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -3.35%E -2.37%K -8.17%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -4.07%E -1.33%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%EV -6.09%E -4.45%K -16.46%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-07 08:54 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.53%EV -4.38%E -1.44%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.47%EV -4.03%E -2.88%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.64%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.03%E -2.88%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-07 08:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.64%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.03%E -2.88%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-07 08:37 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.64%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.03%E -2.88%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.64%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.03%E -2.88%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.64%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.03%E -2.88%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.64%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.03%E -2.88%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.64%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.03%E -2.88%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.64%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.41%E -3.92%K -14.22%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-07 08:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.64%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.41%E -3.92%K -14.22%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-07 08:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.64%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.41%E -3.92%K -14.22%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -5.64%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.46%E -5.53%K -21.32%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-07 08:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -5.64%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.46%E -5.53%K -21.32%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-07 08:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -5.64%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.46%E -5.53%K -21.32%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -5.64%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.46%E -5.53%K -21.32%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-07 08:15 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -5.64%E -1.88%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -8.83%E -6.64%K -26.76%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-07 08:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -7.21%E -2.45%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.03%E -2.88%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-07 08:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -7.21%E -2.45%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -4.72%E -3.40%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-07 08:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -7.21%E -2.45%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -4.72%E -3.40%K -12.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -7.21%E -2.45%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -7.46%E -5.53%K -21.32%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -8.79%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -2.66%E -1.88%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-07 07:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.79%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.03%E -2.88%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.79%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.03%E -2.88%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-07 08:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.79%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.03%E -2.88%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-07 07:01 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.79%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.03%E -2.88%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-07 07:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.79%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.03%E -2.88%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-07 07:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.79%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.03%E -2.88%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-07 07:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -8.79%E -3.03%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.41%E -3.92%K -14.22%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-07 08:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -9.42%E -3.27%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -2.66%E -1.88%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 07:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -9.42%E -3.27%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -2.66%E -1.88%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 07:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -9.42%E -3.27%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -2.66%E -1.88%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 07:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -9.42%E -3.27%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -2.66%E -1.88%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 07:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -9.42%E -3.27%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -2.66%E -1.88%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 07:01 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -9.42%E -3.27%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -2.66%E -1.88%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 07:01 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -9.42%E -3.27%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -2.66%E -1.88%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 07:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -9.42%E -3.27%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -2.66%E -1.88%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 07:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -9.42%E -3.27%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -2.66%E -1.88%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 07:01 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -9.42%E -3.27%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -2.66%E -1.88%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 07:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -9.42%E -3.27%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -2.66%E -1.88%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 07:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -9.42%E -3.27%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -2.66%E -1.88%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-07 07:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -9.42%E -3.27%K -5.01%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -6.78%E -4.98%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-07 08:39 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.31%EV -9.73%E -3.39%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.69%EV -6.09%E -4.45%K -16.46%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-07 08:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -11.93%E -4.26%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.03%E -2.88%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-07 07:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -11.93%E -4.26%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.03%E -2.88%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-07 07:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -11.93%E -4.26%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -5.41%E -3.92%K -14.22%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-07 07:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.23% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.77% | 0.2% | 2026-04-07 08:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92% | 0.7% | 2026-04-07 08:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92% | 0.7% | 2026-04-07 08:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92% | 0.7% | 2026-04-07 08:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92% | 0.7% | 2026-04-07 08:55 |
| Novig◎ | 3.32I 30.12%NM 29.36% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.64% | 2.6% | 2026-04-07 08:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.96% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.04% | 2.7% | 2026-04-07 08:55 |