Language:English
Denis Shapovalov v Alexander Blockx
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Denis Shapovalov (Local)
Prediction 61.93%1.61fair odd
EV +5.28%
Edge +3.10%
Kelly +7.54%
Growth +0.398%
assuming max odds 1.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.26%61.55%61.80%67.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.551.541.7069.44%64.43%64.94%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alexander Blockx (Visit)
Prediction 38.07%2.63fair odd
EV +12.70%
Edge +4.29%
Kelly +6.48%
Growth +0.823%
assuming max odds 2.96
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.73%38.45%38.20%44.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.392.402.9648.78%41.82%41.67%33.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Denis Shapovalov (Local): 61.93%; Alexander Blockx (Visit): 38.07%. For Alexander Blockx (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.63. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.96, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.70%.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.27%EV -10.83%E -7.52%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.73%EV +12.70%E +4.29%K +6.48%G +0.823% | 3.2% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -10.21%E -7.04%K -22.68%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +4.70%E +1.71%K +2.69%G +0.126% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 14:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -10.83%E -7.52%K -24.60%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV +2.80%E +1.04%K +1.65%G +0.046% | 6.5% | 2026-04-06 14:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -7.11%E -4.74%K -14.22%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV +0.894%E +0.337%K +0.542%G +0.005% | 4.4% | 2026-04-06 14:43 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -10.21%E -7.04%K -22.68%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV +0.894%E +0.337%K +0.542%G +0.005% | 6.7% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.37%EV -10.21%E -7.04%K -22.68%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.63%EV -0.248%E -0.095%K -0.153%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-06 14:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -9.59%E -6.57%K -20.84%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -1.01%E -0.388%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-06 14:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -10.21%E -7.04%K -22.68%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -1.01%E -0.388%K -0.631%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-06 14:47 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.62%EV -6.49%E -4.30%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 37.38%EV -3.67%E -1.45%K -2.40%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.01%E -2.59%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -4.82%E -1.93%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.63%E -3.01%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -4.82%E -1.93%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.63%E -3.01%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -4.82%E -1.93%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-06 14:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.25%E -3.43%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.82%E -1.93%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-06 14:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.11%E -4.74%K -14.22%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -4.82%E -1.93%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.01%E -2.59%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.72%E -2.74%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.01%E -2.59%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.72%E -2.74%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.01%E -2.59%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.72%E -2.74%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -5.87%E -3.86%K -11.29%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -6.72%E -2.74%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -3.39%E -2.18%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -7.48%E -3.08%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -3.39%E -2.18%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -7.48%E -3.08%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -5.25%E -3.43%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -8.62%E -3.59%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -7.11%E -4.74%K -14.22%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.62%E -3.59%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.71%EV -4.63%E -3.01%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -9.39%E -3.94%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -5.25%E -3.43%K -9.91%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -9.39%E -3.94%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-06 14:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.18%EV -6.49%E -4.30%K -12.73%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.82%EV -9.39%E -3.94%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.46%EV -4.01%E -2.59%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -9.77%E -4.12%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -2.78%E -1.77%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -10.53%E -4.48%K -7.80%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.41%EV -4.63%E -3.01%K -8.58%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -10.53%E -4.48%K -7.80%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -7.11%E -4.74%K -14.22%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -10.53%E -4.48%K -7.80%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.20%EV -7.73%E -5.19%K -15.77%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV -10.53%E -4.48%K -7.80%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -2.78%E -1.77%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -14.34%E -6.37%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -3.39%E -2.18%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -14.34%E -6.37%K -11.47%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-06 14:48 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -2.78%E -1.77%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -16.24%E -7.38%K -13.53%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV +4.04%E +2.40%K +5.94%G +0.240% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -17.00%E -7.80%K -14.41%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV +4.04%E +2.40%K +5.94%G +0.240% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -17.00%E -7.80%K -14.41%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV +4.66%E +2.76%K +6.75%G +0.314% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -18.14%E -8.44%K -15.78%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV +3.42%E +2.05%K +5.10%G +0.174% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -18.14%E -8.44%K -15.78%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%EV +2.80%E +1.69%K +4.24%G +0.119% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.68%EV -18.52%E -8.66%K -16.25%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV +5.28%E +3.10%K +7.54%G +0.398% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -20.05%E -9.55%K -18.22%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV +3.42%E +2.05%K +5.10%G +0.174% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -20.05%E -9.55%K -18.22%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV +3.42%E +2.05%K +5.10%G +0.174% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -20.05%E -9.55%K -18.22%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.26%EV +2.80%E +1.69%K +4.24%G +0.119% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.74%EV -21.95%E -10.71%K -20.90%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.16%EV -0.917%E -0.573%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -21.95%E -10.71%K -20.90%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 63.08% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.92% | 0.3% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.60% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 34.40% | 0.9% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52% | 1.2% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.02% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 35.98% | 1.4% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.67% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.33% | 4.9% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| Novig◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.66% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.34% | 6.4% | 2026-04-06 14:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.14% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 35.86% | 9.8% | 2026-04-06 14:49 |