Language:English
Carlos Alcaraz v Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Carlos Alcaraz (Local)
Prediction 92.99%1.08fair odd
EV -3.29%
Edge -3.16%
Kelly -82.17%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.04
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
89.73%92.82%92.79%95.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.021.031.0499.01%97.65%97.09%96.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Tomas Martin Etcheverry (Visit)
Prediction 7.01%14.27fair odd
EV +42.30%
Edge +2.08%
Kelly +2.19%
Growth +0.927%
assuming max odds 20.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.83%7.18%7.21%10.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0013.2813.0020.3111.11%7.53%7.69%4.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carlos Alcaraz (Local): 92.99%; Tomas Martin Etcheverry (Visit): 7.01%. For Tomas Martin Etcheverry (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 14.27. 19 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 20.31, corresponding to a positive expected value of +42.30%.
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 95.17%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000% | 20.31I 4.92%NM 4.83%EV +42.30%E +2.08%K +2.19%G +0.927% | 2.0% | 2026-04-09 13:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.64%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.36%EV +26.12%E +1.45%K +1.54%G +0.401% | 3.6% | 2026-04-09 13:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 94.29%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.71%EV +19.11%E +1.12%K +1.19%G +0.228% | 3.0% | 2026-04-09 13:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 94.29%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.71%EV +19.11%E +1.12%K +1.19%G +0.228% | 3.0% | 2026-04-09 13:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +19.11%E +1.12%K +1.19%G +0.228% | 3.9% | 2026-04-09 13:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -6.08%E -6.02%K -607.67%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +19.11%E +1.12%K +1.19%G +0.228% | 4.9% | 2026-04-09 13:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -6.08%E -6.02%K -607.67%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +19.11%E +1.12%K +1.19%G +0.228% | 4.9% | 2026-04-09 13:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 93.97%EV -3.29%E -3.16%K -82.17%G +0.000% | 16.20I 6.17%NM 6.03%EV +13.51%E +0.834%K +0.889%G +0.120% | 2.3% | 2026-04-09 13:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV +12.11%E +0.757%K +0.807%G +0.098% | 4.3% | 2026-04-09 13:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV +12.11%E +0.757%K +0.807%G +0.098% | 4.3% | 2026-04-09 13:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -6.08%E -6.02%K -607.67%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV +12.11%E +0.757%K +0.807%G +0.098% | 5.3% | 2026-04-09 13:07 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.81%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000% | 15.45I 6.47%NM 6.19%EV +8.25%E +0.534%K +0.571%G +0.047% | 4.5% | 2026-04-09 13:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +5.10%E +0.340%K +0.364%G +0.019% | 3.8% | 2026-04-09 13:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +5.10%E +0.340%K +0.364%G +0.019% | 3.8% | 2026-04-09 13:34 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +5.10%E +0.340%K +0.364%G +0.019% | 3.8% | 2026-04-09 13:38 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +5.10%E +0.340%K +0.364%G +0.019% | 3.8% | 2026-04-09 13:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -6.08%E -6.02%K -607.67%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +5.10%E +0.340%K +0.364%G +0.019% | 5.7% | 2026-04-09 13:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -6.08%E -6.02%K -607.67%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +5.10%E +0.340%K +0.364%G +0.019% | 5.7% | 2026-04-09 13:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.55%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000% | 14.80I 6.76%NM 6.45%EV +3.70%E +0.250%K +0.268%G +0.010% | 4.8% | 2026-04-09 13:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.15%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.85%EV -1.91%E -0.136%K -0.147%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-09 13:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -1.91%E -0.136%K -0.147%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-09 13:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -6.08%E -6.02%K -607.67%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -1.91%E -0.136%K -0.147%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-09 13:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -8.91%E -0.686%K -0.743%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-09 13:40 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -8.91%E -0.686%K -0.743%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-09 13:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -8.91%E -0.686%K -0.743%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-09 13:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -8.91%E -0.686%K -0.743%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-09 13:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -8.91%E -0.686%K -0.743%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-09 13:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -8.91%E -0.686%K -0.743%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-09 13:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -8.91%E -0.686%K -0.743%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-09 13:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -6.08%E -6.02%K -607.67%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -8.91%E -0.686%K -0.743%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-09 13:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -12.42%E -0.993%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-09 13:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.31%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000% | 12.36I 8.09%NM 7.69%EV -13.40%E -1.08%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-09 13:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -3.29%E -3.16%K -82.17%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -15.92%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-09 13:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -15.92%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-09 13:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -15.92%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-09 13:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -15.92%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-09 13:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -15.92%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-09 13:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -15.92%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-09 13:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -15.92%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-09 13:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -15.92%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-09 13:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -15.92%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-09 13:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -15.92%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-09 13:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -15.92%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-09 13:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%EV -6.08%E -6.02%K -607.67%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -15.92%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-09 13:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -3.29%E -3.16%K -82.17%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -22.93%E -2.08%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-09 13:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -3.29%E -3.16%K -82.17%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -22.93%E -2.08%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-09 13:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -22.93%E -2.08%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-09 13:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -26.43%E -2.52%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-09 13:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -26.43%E -2.52%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-09 13:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -26.43%E -2.52%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-09 13:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -26.43%E -2.52%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-09 13:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.15%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -26.43%E -2.52%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-09 13:09 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -29.93%E -2.99%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-09 13:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -29.93%E -2.99%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-09 13:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 90.83%EV -6.08%E -6.02%K -607.67%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -29.93%E -2.99%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-09 13:40 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 90.83%EV -6.08%E -6.02%K -607.67%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -29.93%E -2.99%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-09 13:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 89.73%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -36.94%E -4.10%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-09 13:38 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.04I 96.15%NM 95.28% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.72% | 0.9% | 2026-04-09 13:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.19% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.81% | 0.9% | 2026-04-09 13:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.19% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.81% | 0.9% | 2026-04-09 13:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.19% | 25.97I 3.85%NM 3.81% | 0.9% | 2026-04-09 13:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.04% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.96% | 1.1% | 2026-04-09 13:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 96.04% | 25.00I 4.00%NM 3.96% | 1.1% | 2026-04-09 13:40 |
| Novig◎ | 1.03I 97.09%NM 95.38% | 21.28I 4.70%NM 4.62% | 1.8% | 2026-04-09 13:40 |