A Escola das Odds

Carlos Alcaraz v Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Início: 2026-04-09 14:00 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

57 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Carlos Alcaraz (Local)

Previsão 92.99%1.08odd justa
EV -3.29%
Vantagem -3.16%
Kelly -82.17%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.04

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
89.73%92.82%92.79%95.17%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.011.021.031.0499.01%97.65%97.09%96.15%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Tomas Martin Etcheverry (Visitante)

Previsão 7.01%14.27odd justa
EV +42.30%
Vantagem +2.08%
Kelly +2.19%
Crescimento +0.927%

pressupondo odds máximas de 20.31

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
4.83%7.18%7.21%10.27%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
9.0013.2813.0020.3111.11%7.53%7.69%4.92%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (57 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
Pinnacle1.03I 97.09%NM 95.17%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000%20.31I 4.92%NM 4.83%EV +42.30%E +2.08%K +2.19%G +0.927%2.0%2026-04-09 13:10
Paddy Power1.02I 98.04%NM 94.64%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.36%EV +26.12%E +1.45%K +1.54%G +0.401%3.6%2026-04-09 13:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.03I 97.09%NM 94.29%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.71%EV +19.11%E +1.12%K +1.19%G +0.228%3.0%2026-04-09 13:40
Coral1.03I 97.09%NM 94.29%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.71%EV +19.11%E +1.12%K +1.19%G +0.228%3.0%2026-04-09 13:40
FanDuel1.02I 98.04%NM 94.34%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +19.11%E +1.12%K +1.19%G +0.228%3.9%2026-04-09 13:30
Betway1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -6.08%E -6.02%K -607.67%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +19.11%E +1.12%K +1.19%G +0.228%4.9%2026-04-09 13:40
SportsBet1.01I 99.01%NM 94.39%EV -6.08%E -6.02%K -607.67%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.61%EV +19.11%E +1.12%K +1.19%G +0.228%4.9%2026-04-09 13:30
DraftKings1.04I 96.15%NM 93.97%EV -3.29%E -3.16%K -82.17%G +0.000%16.20I 6.17%NM 6.03%EV +13.51%E +0.834%K +0.889%G +0.120%2.3%2026-04-09 13:40
LowVig.ag1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV +12.11%E +0.757%K +0.807%G +0.098%4.3%2026-04-09 13:10
BetOnline.ag1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV +12.11%E +0.757%K +0.807%G +0.098%4.3%2026-04-09 13:10
Bovada1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -6.08%E -6.02%K -607.67%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV +12.11%E +0.757%K +0.807%G +0.098%5.3%2026-04-09 13:07
BetAnything1.02I 98.04%NM 93.81%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000%15.45I 6.47%NM 6.19%EV +8.25%E +0.534%K +0.571%G +0.047%4.5%2026-04-09 13:40
PointsBet (AU)1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +5.10%E +0.340%K +0.364%G +0.019%3.8%2026-04-09 13:10
Betclic (FR)1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +5.10%E +0.340%K +0.364%G +0.019%3.8%2026-04-09 13:34
Winamax (DE)1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +5.10%E +0.340%K +0.364%G +0.019%3.8%2026-04-09 13:38
BoyleSports1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +5.10%E +0.340%K +0.364%G +0.019%3.8%2026-04-09 13:09
Neds1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -6.08%E -6.02%K -607.67%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +5.10%E +0.340%K +0.364%G +0.019%5.7%2026-04-09 13:10
Ladbrokes (AU)1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -6.08%E -6.02%K -607.67%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +5.10%E +0.340%K +0.364%G +0.019%5.7%2026-04-09 13:10
1xBet1.02I 98.04%NM 93.55%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000%14.80I 6.76%NM 6.45%EV +3.70%E +0.250%K +0.268%G +0.010%4.8%2026-04-09 13:30
Winamax (FR)1.03I 97.09%NM 93.15%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.85%EV -1.91%E -0.136%K -0.147%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-09 13:40
Bet Right1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -1.91%E -0.136%K -0.147%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-09 13:35
Unibet (FR)1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -6.08%E -6.02%K -607.67%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -1.91%E -0.136%K -0.147%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-09 13:29
Coolbet1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -8.91%E -0.686%K -0.743%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-09 13:40
ReBet1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -8.91%E -0.686%K -0.743%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-09 13:29
Unibet (UK)1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -8.91%E -0.686%K -0.743%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-09 13:30
PlayUp1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -8.91%E -0.686%K -0.743%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-09 13:35
888sport1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -8.91%E -0.686%K -0.743%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-09 13:40
888sport (SE)1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -8.91%E -0.686%K -0.743%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-09 13:40
Mr Green (SE)1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -8.91%E -0.686%K -0.743%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-09 13:40
BetMGM1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -6.08%E -6.02%K -607.67%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -8.91%E -0.686%K -0.743%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-09 13:40
Betr (AU)1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -12.42%E -0.993%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-09 13:10
GTbets1.03I 97.09%NM 92.31%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000%12.36I 8.09%NM 7.69%EV -13.40%E -1.08%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-09 13:30
theScore Bet1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -3.29%E -3.16%K -82.17%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -15.92%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-09 13:40
Casumo1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -15.92%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-09 13:40
Unibet (NL)1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -15.92%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-09 13:40
Unibet (SE)1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -15.92%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-09 13:40
Unibet1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -15.92%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-09 13:40
Svenska Spel1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -15.92%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-09 13:40
betPARX1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -15.92%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-09 13:40
ATG (SE)1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -15.92%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-09 13:40
Hard Rock Bet1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -15.92%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-09 13:39
NordicBet1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -15.92%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-09 13:30
Betsson1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -15.92%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-09 13:30
TAB1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%EV -6.08%E -6.02%K -607.67%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -15.92%E -1.33%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-09 13:10
William Hill1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -3.29%E -3.16%K -82.17%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -22.93%E -2.08%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-09 13:10
Bally Bet1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -3.29%E -3.16%K -82.17%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -22.93%E -2.08%K -2.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-09 13:10
Caesars1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -22.93%E -2.08%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-09 13:10
Grosvenor1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -26.43%E -2.52%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-09 13:35
TABtouch1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -26.43%E -2.52%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-09 13:35
Virgin Bet1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -26.43%E -2.52%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-09 13:35
LiveScore Bet1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -26.43%E -2.52%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-09 13:35
PMU (FR)1.02I 98.04%NM 91.15%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV -26.43%E -2.52%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-09 13:09
Fanatics1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -29.93%E -2.99%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-09 13:30
LeoVegas1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -5.15%E -5.05%K -257.34%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -29.93%E -2.99%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-09 13:40
LeoVegas (SE)1.01I 99.01%NM 90.83%EV -6.08%E -6.02%K -607.67%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -29.93%E -2.99%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-09 13:40
NetBet (FR)1.01I 99.01%NM 90.83%EV -6.08%E -6.02%K -607.67%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -29.93%E -2.99%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-09 13:10
Bet Victor1.03I 97.09%NM 89.73%EV -4.22%E -4.09%K -140.56%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -36.94%E -4.10%K -4.62%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-09 13:38
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (7)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
ProphetX1.04I 96.15%NM 95.28%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.72%0.9%2026-04-09 13:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.03I 97.09%NM 96.19%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.81%0.9%2026-04-09 13:40
Matchbook1.03I 97.09%NM 96.19%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.81%0.9%2026-04-09 13:40
Smarkets1.03I 97.09%NM 96.19%25.97I 3.85%NM 3.81%0.9%2026-04-09 13:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.03I 97.09%NM 96.04%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.96%1.1%2026-04-09 13:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.03I 97.09%NM 96.04%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.96%1.1%2026-04-09 13:40
Novig1.03I 97.09%NM 95.38%21.28I 4.70%NM 4.62%1.8%2026-04-09 13:40