Language:English
Valentin Royer v Thiago Agustin Tirante
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Valentin Royer (Local)
Prediction 52.29%1.91fair odd
EV -0.646%
Edge -0.340%
Kelly -0.718%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.06%52.26%52.22%54.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.831.831.9057.47%54.77%54.64%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Thiago Agustin Tirante (Visit)
Prediction 47.71%2.10fair odd
EV -1.24%
Edge -0.601%
Kelly -1.16%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.07
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.91%47.74%47.78%48.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.971.972.0752.36%50.78%50.76%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Valentin Royer (Local): 52.29%; Thiago Agustin Tirante (Visit): 47.71%. For Valentin Royer (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.91. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.90, with an expected value of -0.646%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (49 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.16%EV -0.646%E -0.340%K -0.718%G +0.000% | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.84%EV -5.06%E -2.54%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-20 14:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.81%EV -2.74%E -1.47%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.19%EV -4.58%E -2.29%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-20 14:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -6.01%E -3.05%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 14:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -6.01%E -3.05%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-20 14:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.97%E -3.57%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 14:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.97%E -3.57%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 14:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.97%E -3.57%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 14:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -7.45%E -3.84%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-20 14:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -7.45%E -3.84%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-20 14:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -7.45%E -3.84%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-20 14:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -7.45%E -3.84%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-20 14:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -7.45%E -3.84%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-20 14:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -7.45%E -3.84%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-20 14:14 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -7.45%E -3.84%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-20 14:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -7.45%E -3.84%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-20 14:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -7.45%E -3.84%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-20 14:14 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -7.45%E -3.84%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-20 14:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -7.45%E -3.84%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-20 14:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -7.45%E -3.84%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-20 14:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -7.92%E -4.10%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-20 14:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.34%EV -4.31%E -2.35%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.66%EV -4.11%E -2.04%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-20 14:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.31%E -2.35%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.58%E -2.29%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-20 14:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.31%E -2.35%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.58%E -2.29%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-20 14:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.31%E -2.35%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.58%E -2.29%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-20 14:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.31%E -2.35%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.54%E -2.80%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 14:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -4.31%E -2.35%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -6.01%E -3.05%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-20 14:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.31%E -2.35%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -8.88%E -4.65%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-20 14:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.31%E -2.35%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -8.88%E -4.65%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-20 14:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.31%E -2.35%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -8.88%E -4.65%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-20 14:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -4.83%E -2.65%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -3.63%E -1.80%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-20 14:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.83%E -2.65%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.58%E -2.29%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-20 14:09 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -4.83%E -2.65%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -5.54%E -2.80%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-20 14:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.34%EV -4.83%E -2.65%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.66%EV -8.40%E -4.37%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-20 14:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.35%EV -5.35%E -2.96%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.65%EV -1.24%E -0.601%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-20 14:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV -5.35%E -2.96%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.38%EV -4.11%E -2.04%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-20 14:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV -5.35%E -2.96%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.38%EV -4.11%E -2.04%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-20 14:09 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV -5.35%E -2.96%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.38%EV -4.11%E -2.04%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-20 14:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%EV -5.35%E -2.96%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -6.01%E -3.05%K -6.20%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-20 14:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.88%E -3.26%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.58%E -2.29%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-20 14:09 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.88%E -3.26%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.58%E -2.29%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-20 14:09 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.88%E -3.26%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.58%E -2.29%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-20 14:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.88%E -3.26%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.58%E -2.29%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-20 14:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.88%E -3.26%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.58%E -2.29%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-20 14:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.88%E -3.26%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.97%E -3.57%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-20 14:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.88%E -3.26%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.97%E -3.57%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-20 14:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -7.44%E -4.21%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -3.63%E -1.80%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-20 14:04 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -8.49%E -4.85%K -11.32%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -6.97%E -3.57%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-20 13:58 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -9.01%E -5.18%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -2.20%E -1.07%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-20 14:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.33%EV -9.01%E -5.18%K -12.18%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.67%EV -8.88%E -4.65%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-20 14:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25% | 0.5% | 2026-03-20 14:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25% | 0.5% | 2026-03-20 14:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25% | 0.5% | 2026-03-20 14:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25% | 0.5% | 2026-03-20 14:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.76% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 49.24% | 1.0% | 2026-03-20 14:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.27% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.73% | 1.6% | 2026-03-20 14:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.64% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 49.36% | 2.3% | 2026-03-20 14:15 |