La escuela de los momios

Valentin Royer v Thiago Agustin Tirante

Inicio: 2026-03-20 14:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

49 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Valentin Royer (Local)

Predicción 52.29%1.91momio equitativo
EV -0.646%
Ventaja -0.340%
Kelly -0.718%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.06%52.26%52.22%54.09%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.741.831.831.9057.47%54.77%54.64%52.63%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Thiago Agustin Tirante (Visitante)

Predicción 47.71%2.10momio equitativo
EV -1.24%
Ventaja -0.601%
Kelly -1.16%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.07

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
45.91%47.74%47.78%48.94%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.911.971.972.0752.36%50.78%50.76%48.31%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Pinnacle1.90I 52.63%NM 51.16%EV -0.646%E -0.340%K -0.718%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.84%EV -5.06%E -2.54%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-20 14:15
Winamax (DE)1.86I 53.76%NM 51.81%EV -2.74%E -1.47%K -3.18%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.19%EV -4.58%E -2.29%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-20 14:09
LowVig.ag1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -6.01%E -3.05%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-20 14:10
BetOnline.ag1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -6.01%E -3.05%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-20 14:10
LiveScore Bet1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.97%E -3.57%K -7.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-20 14:15
Unibet1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.97%E -3.57%K -7.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-20 14:15
TAB1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -6.97%E -3.57%K -7.34%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-20 14:15
Casumo1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -7.45%E -3.84%K -7.92%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-20 14:15
Unibet (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -7.45%E -3.84%K -7.92%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-20 14:14
Grosvenor1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -7.45%E -3.84%K -7.92%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-20 14:15
TABtouch1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -7.45%E -3.84%K -7.92%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-20 14:15
LeoVegas1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -7.45%E -3.84%K -7.92%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-20 14:15
LeoVegas (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -7.45%E -3.84%K -7.92%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-20 14:14
BetRivers1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -7.45%E -3.84%K -7.92%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-20 14:15
Unibet (NL)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -7.45%E -3.84%K -7.92%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-20 14:14
ATG (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -7.45%E -3.84%K -7.92%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-20 14:14
betPARX1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -7.45%E -3.84%K -7.92%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-20 14:15
Svenska Spel1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -7.45%E -3.84%K -7.92%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-20 14:15
Bally Bet1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -7.45%E -3.84%K -7.92%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-20 14:15
PlayUp1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -3.26%E -1.76%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -7.92%E -4.10%K -8.52%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-20 14:15
SportsBet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.34%EV -4.31%E -2.35%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.66%EV -4.11%E -2.04%K -4.07%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-20 14:10
FanDuel1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.31%E -2.35%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.58%E -2.29%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-20 14:10
BoyleSports1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.31%E -2.35%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.58%E -2.29%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-20 14:09
Bovada1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -4.31%E -2.35%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -4.58%E -2.29%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-20 14:09
Bet Right1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -4.31%E -2.35%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -5.54%E -2.80%K -5.65%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-20 14:20
Marathon Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -4.31%E -2.35%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -6.01%E -3.05%K -6.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-20 14:05
Ladbrokes (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.31%E -2.35%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -8.88%E -4.65%K -9.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-20 14:09
Coral1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.31%E -2.35%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -8.88%E -4.65%K -9.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-20 14:09
BetUS1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.31%E -2.35%K -5.19%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -8.88%E -4.65%K -9.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-20 14:10
1xBet1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -4.83%E -2.65%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -3.63%E -1.80%K -3.56%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-20 14:09
DraftKings1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -4.83%E -2.65%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -4.58%E -2.29%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-20 14:09
Winamax (FR)1.82I 54.95%NM 52.11%EV -4.83%E -2.65%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.89%EV -5.54%E -2.80%K -5.65%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-20 14:10
Virgin Bet1.82I 54.95%NM 51.34%EV -4.83%E -2.65%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.66%EV -8.40%E -4.37%K -9.13%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-20 14:15
GTbets1.81I 55.25%NM 53.35%EV -5.35%E -2.96%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.65%EV -1.24%E -0.601%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.6%2026-03-20 14:05
Betsson1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV -5.35%E -2.96%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.38%EV -4.11%E -2.04%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-20 14:09
NordicBet1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV -5.35%E -2.96%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.38%EV -4.11%E -2.04%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-20 14:09
ReBet1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV -5.35%E -2.96%K -6.61%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.38%EV -4.11%E -2.04%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-20 14:10
Betr (AU)1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%EV -5.35%E -2.96%K -6.61%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -6.01%E -3.05%K -6.20%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-20 14:20
Paddy Power1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.88%E -3.26%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.58%E -2.29%K -4.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-20 14:09
Betway1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.88%E -3.26%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.58%E -2.29%K -4.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-20 14:09
Fanatics1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.88%E -3.26%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.58%E -2.29%K -4.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-20 14:10
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.88%E -3.26%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.58%E -2.29%K -4.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-20 14:09
theScore Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.88%E -3.26%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.58%E -2.29%K -4.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-20 14:10
PMU (FR)1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.88%E -3.26%K -7.34%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.97%E -3.57%K -7.34%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-20 14:10
Caesars1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.88%E -3.26%K -7.34%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.97%E -3.57%K -7.34%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-20 14:10
Unibet (FR)1.77I 56.50%NM 53.30%EV -7.44%E -4.21%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.70%EV -3.63%E -1.80%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-20 14:04
Bet Victor1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -8.49%E -4.85%K -11.32%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -6.97%E -3.57%K -7.34%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-20 13:58
PointsBet (AU)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -9.01%E -5.18%K -12.18%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -2.20%E -1.07%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-20 14:10
Fliff1.74I 57.47%NM 52.33%EV -9.01%E -5.18%K -12.18%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.67%EV -8.88%E -4.65%K -9.75%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-20 14:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25%0.5%2026-03-20 14:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25%0.5%2026-03-20 14:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25%0.5%2026-03-20 14:20
Matchbook1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25%0.5%2026-03-20 14:10
ProphetX1.95I 51.28%NM 50.76%2.01I 49.75%NM 49.24%1.0%2026-03-20 14:20
Novig1.92I 52.08%NM 51.27%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.73%1.6%2026-03-20 14:25
Smarkets1.93I 51.81%NM 50.64%1.98I 50.51%NM 49.36%2.3%2026-03-20 14:15