Language:English
Martin Damm Jr. v Jacob Fearnley
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Martin Damm Jr. (Local)
Prediction 68.40%1.46fair odd
EV +46.37%
Edge +21.67%
Kelly +40.68%
Growth +18.86%
assuming max odds 2.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.41%64.54%68.65%73.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.591.402.1478.13%62.84%71.43%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jacob Fearnley (Visit)
Prediction 31.60%3.16fair odd
EV +13.77%
Edge +3.82%
Kelly +5.29%
Growth +0.729%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.23%35.46%31.35%54.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.702.602.953.6058.82%38.49%33.90%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Martin Damm Jr. (Local): 68.40%; Jacob Fearnley (Visit): 31.60%. For Martin Damm Jr. (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.46. 19 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.14, corresponding to a positive expected value of +46.37%.
Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.41%EV +46.37%E +21.67%K +40.68%G +18.86% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.59%EV -43.75%E -24.58%K -56.09%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-19 20:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV +43.64%E +20.78%K +39.67%G +17.31% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -44.07%E -24.90%K -57.23%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-19 19:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV +43.64%E +20.78%K +39.67%G +17.31% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -44.07%E -24.90%K -57.23%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-19 19:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV +42.27%E +20.32%K +39.14%G +16.54% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -44.38%E -25.22%K -58.40%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-19 19:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV +40.22%E +19.62%K +38.30%G +15.40% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -44.70%E -25.54%K -59.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-19 20:44 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV +40.22%E +19.62%K +38.30%G +15.40% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -44.70%E -25.54%K -59.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-19 20:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV +40.22%E +19.62%K +38.30%G +15.40% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -45.65%E -26.54%K -63.40%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-19 20:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87%EV +39.53%E +19.38%K +38.01%G +15.03% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%EV -43.12%E -23.95%K -53.90%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-19 19:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.00%EV +38.85%E +19.14%K +37.72%G +14.65% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.00%EV -43.12%E -23.95%K -53.90%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-19 19:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV +38.16%E +18.89%K +37.42%G +14.28% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -42.49%E -23.34%K -51.81%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-19 20:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV +36.80%E +18.40%K +36.80%G +13.54% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -43.12%E -23.95%K -53.90%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-19 19:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV +36.80%E +18.40%K +36.80%G +13.54% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -44.07%E -24.90%K -57.23%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-19 20:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV +36.80%E +18.40%K +36.80%G +13.54% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -45.65%E -26.54%K -63.40%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-19 19:44 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV +36.80%E +18.40%K +36.80%G +13.54% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -46.28%E -27.22%K -66.11%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-19 19:30 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.49%EV +36.11%E +18.15%K +36.48%G +13.17% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.51%EV -43.12%E -23.95%K -53.90%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-19 20:29 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.02%EV +34.74%E +17.64%K +35.82%G +12.45% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98%EV -42.49%E -23.34%K -51.81%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-19 19:29 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV +33.38%E +17.12%K +35.13%G +11.73% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -43.12%E -23.95%K -53.90%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-19 19:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV +32.69%E +16.85%K +34.78%G +11.37% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -40.90%E -21.87%K -47.02%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-19 20:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV +3.28%E +2.17%K +6.43%G +0.211% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -17.84%E -6.86%K -11.15%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-19 20:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -2.19%E -1.53%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -9.94%E -3.49%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-19 20:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -2.87%E -2.02%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -14.68%E -5.44%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-19 20:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.24%E -3.03%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.20%E -1.73%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-19 20:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.24%E -3.03%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.20%E -1.73%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-19 20:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.24%E -3.03%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.20%E -1.73%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-19 20:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.24%E -3.03%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.20%E -1.73%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-19 20:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.24%E -3.03%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.20%E -1.73%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-19 20:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.24%E -3.03%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.20%E -1.73%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-19 20:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.24%E -3.03%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.20%E -1.73%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-19 20:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.24%E -3.03%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.78%E -2.30%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 20:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.24%E -3.03%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.78%E -2.30%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 20:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.24%E -3.03%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.36%E -2.88%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-19 20:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.24%E -3.03%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -13.10%E -4.76%K -7.48%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-19 20:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.61%E -4.07%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.20%E -1.73%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-19 20:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -5.61%E -4.07%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -6.78%E -2.30%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-19 20:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -5.61%E -4.07%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -6.78%E -2.30%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-19 20:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -5.61%E -4.07%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -6.78%E -2.30%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-19 20:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -5.61%E -4.07%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -6.78%E -2.30%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-19 20:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -6.29%E -4.59%K -17.01%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -2.03%E -0.656%K -0.969%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-19 20:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%EV -6.29%E -4.59%K -17.01%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -3.61%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-19 20:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%EV -6.29%E -4.59%K -17.01%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -3.61%E -1.19%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-19 20:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.98%E -5.13%K -19.38%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.20%E -1.73%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-19 20:54 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.98%E -5.13%K -19.38%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.20%E -1.73%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-19 20:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.98%E -5.13%K -19.38%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.20%E -1.73%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-19 20:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.98%E -5.13%K -19.38%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.20%E -1.73%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-19 20:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -6.98%E -5.13%K -19.38%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -8.36%E -2.88%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-19 20:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -6.98%E -5.13%K -19.38%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -9.94%E -3.49%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-19 20:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -6.98%E -5.13%K -19.38%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -11.52%E -4.11%K -6.40%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-19 20:54 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.93%EV -9.03%E -6.79%K -27.36%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -6.78%E -2.30%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-19 20:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.67%EV -9.71%E -7.36%K -30.36%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.33%EV +5.55%E +1.66%K +2.37%G +0.132% | 5.7% | 2026-03-19 20:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -11.08%E -8.52%K -36.94%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV +7.45%E +2.19%K +3.10%G +0.231% | 6.3% | 2026-03-19 20:53 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -11.08%E -8.52%K -36.94%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV +4.29%E +1.30%K +1.86%G +0.080% | 7.2% | 2026-03-19 20:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -11.08%E -8.52%K -36.94%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV +2.71%E +0.832%K +1.20%G +0.033% | 7.7% | 2026-03-19 20:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -11.08%E -8.52%K -36.94%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV +1.13%E +0.352%K +0.511%G +0.006% | 8.2% | 2026-03-19 20:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -12.45%E -9.73%K -44.46%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV +13.77%E +3.82%K +5.29%G +0.729% | 5.9% | 2026-03-19 20:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.29% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.71% | 0.2% | 2026-03-19 20:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.58% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.42% | 1.0% | 2026-03-19 20:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89% | 1.2% | 2026-03-19 20:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.43% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57% | 1.4% | 2026-03-19 20:54 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.02% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.98% | 2.1% | 2026-03-19 20:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.19% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.81% | 3.2% | 2026-03-19 20:55 |
| Novig◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.24% | 3.27I 30.58%NM 28.76% | 6.3% | 2026-03-19 20:55 |