Language:English
Mariano Navone v Valentin Vacherot
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Mariano Navone (Local)
Prediction 33.76%2.96fair odd
EV +2.30%
Edge +0.758%
Kelly +1.13%
Growth +0.026%
assuming max odds 3.03
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.51%33.67%33.81%35.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.792.773.0338.02%35.87%36.04%33.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Valentin Vacherot (Visit)
Prediction 66.24%1.51fair odd
EV -1.30%
Edge -0.875%
Kelly -2.66%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.49
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.44%66.33%66.19%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.441.441.4973.53%69.49%69.44%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mariano Navone (Local): 33.76%; Valentin Vacherot (Visit): 66.24%. For Mariano Navone (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.96. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.03, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.30%.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.06%EV +2.30%E +0.758%K +1.13%G +0.026% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.94%EV -5.28%E -3.69%K -12.28%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-21 01:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV +1.28%E +0.428%K +0.642%G +0.008% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -8.59%E -6.22%K -22.61%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 01:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.64%EV -1.08%E -0.369%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.36%EV -5.94%E -4.18%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.64%EV -1.08%E -0.369%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.36%EV -5.94%E -4.18%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.18%EV -1.42%E -0.486%K -0.738%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.82%EV -3.95%E -2.73%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-21 01:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.72%EV -1.42%E -0.486%K -0.738%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.28%EV -5.94%E -4.18%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 01:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.33%EV -2.09%E -0.722%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.67%EV -3.95%E -2.73%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-21 01:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -2.09%E -0.722%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -5.28%E -3.69%K -12.28%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-21 01:34 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -2.09%E -0.722%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -5.28%E -3.69%K -12.28%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-21 01:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.09%E -0.722%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.27%E -5.19%K -18.16%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-21 01:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -2.09%E -0.722%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -9.92%E -7.29%K -27.54%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-21 00:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -2.77%E -0.961%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -4.62%E -3.21%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-21 01:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -2.77%E -0.961%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.94%E -4.18%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 01:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -3.78%E -1.33%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.94%E -4.18%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-21 01:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -3.78%E -1.33%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 01:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.64%EV -4.12%E -1.45%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.36%EV -4.62%E -3.21%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-21 00:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.80%EV -4.79%E -1.70%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.20%EV -4.62%E -3.21%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-21 00:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.80%EV -4.79%E -1.70%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.20%EV -4.62%E -3.21%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-21 01:44 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.47%E -1.95%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.62%E -3.21%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 01:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.47%E -1.95%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.62%E -3.21%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 01:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.47%E -1.95%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.62%E -3.21%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 01:30 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.47%E -1.95%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.62%E -3.21%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 01:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.47%E -1.95%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.62%E -3.21%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 01:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.47%E -1.95%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.62%E -3.21%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 00:44 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.47%E -1.95%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.28%E -3.69%K -12.28%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-21 01:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.47%E -1.95%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.28%E -3.69%K -12.28%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-21 01:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -5.47%E -1.95%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.51%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.11%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-21 01:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.47%E -1.95%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.27%E -5.19%K -18.16%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 00:44 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.47%E -1.95%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.27%E -5.19%K -18.16%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 00:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.16%E -2.60%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.95%E -2.73%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 08:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.16%E -2.60%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.62%E -3.21%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-20 06:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.16%E -2.60%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.62%E -3.21%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-20 06:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.16%E -2.60%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.62%E -3.21%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-20 06:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.16%E -2.60%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.62%E -3.21%K -10.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-20 06:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -7.16%E -2.60%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -5.94%E -4.18%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-21 01:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -7.16%E -2.60%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -5.94%E -4.18%K -14.14%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-21 01:44 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.16%E -2.60%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.27%E -5.19%K -18.16%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-21 01:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.16%E -2.60%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.27%E -5.19%K -18.16%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-21 01:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.16%E -2.60%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.27%E -5.19%K -18.16%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-21 01:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.74I 36.50%NM 34.76%EV -7.49%E -2.74%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.24%EV -3.29%E -2.25%K -7.15%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-21 01:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -8.85%E -3.28%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -1.30%E -0.875%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-20 21:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -8.85%E -3.28%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -1.97%E -1.33%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-20 14:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.85%E -3.28%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.63%E -1.79%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 14:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.85%E -3.28%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.63%E -1.79%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 14:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.85%E -3.28%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.63%E -1.79%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 14:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.85%E -3.28%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.63%E -1.79%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 14:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.85%E -3.28%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.63%E -1.79%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 14:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.85%E -3.28%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.63%E -1.79%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 14:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.85%E -3.28%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.63%E -1.79%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 14:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.85%E -3.28%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.63%E -1.79%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 14:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.85%E -3.28%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.63%E -1.79%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 14:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.85%E -3.28%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.63%E -1.79%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 14:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.85%E -3.28%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.63%E -1.79%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 14:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.85%E -3.28%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.63%E -1.79%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 14:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.85%E -3.28%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.63%E -1.79%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 14:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -8.85%E -3.28%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -2.63%E -1.79%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 14:54 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -10.53%E -3.97%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -3.95%E -2.73%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-19 21:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.54%EV -11.21%E -4.26%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.46%EV -3.95%E -2.73%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-20 14:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48% | 0.8% | 2026-03-21 01:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48% | 0.8% | 2026-03-21 01:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48% | 0.8% | 2026-03-21 01:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48% | 0.8% | 2026-03-21 01:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.22% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.78% | 1.8% | 2026-03-21 01:25 |
| Novig◎ | 2.99I 33.44%NM 32.66% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.34% | 2.4% | 2026-03-21 01:44 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.43% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.57% | 2.8% | 2026-03-21 01:45 |