Language:English
Gabriel Diallo v Ugo Humbert
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Gabriel Diallo (Local)
Prediction 44.14%2.27fair odd
EV +1.53%
Edge +0.664%
Kelly +1.18%
Growth +0.018%
assuming max odds 2.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.07%43.93%44.30%45.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.162.142.3047.62%46.39%46.73%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ugo Humbert (Visit)
Prediction 55.86%1.79fair odd
EV -2.81%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -3.80%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.74
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.83%56.07%55.70%57.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.691.711.7461.73%59.02%58.48%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gabriel Diallo (Local): 44.14%; Ugo Humbert (Visit): 55.86%. For Gabriel Diallo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.27. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.53%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV +1.53%E +0.664%K +1.18%G +0.018% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -6.72%E -4.02%K -10.03%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV +1.53%E +0.664%K +1.18%G +0.018% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -6.72%E -4.02%K -10.03%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -0.679%E -0.302%K -0.543%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -6.72%E -4.02%K -10.03%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-21 22:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -0.679%E -0.302%K -0.543%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -7.84%E -4.75%K -12.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -0.679%E -0.302%K -0.543%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -7.84%E -4.75%K -12.05%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%EV -2.89%E -1.31%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%EV -2.81%E -1.61%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.89%E -1.31%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.72%E -4.02%K -10.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -2.89%E -1.31%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.84%E -4.75%K -12.05%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -2.89%E -1.31%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -9.51%E -5.87%K -15.34%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-21 22:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -3.77%E -1.73%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -5.60%E -3.31%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-21 22:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -3.77%E -1.73%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -5.60%E -3.31%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -3.77%E -1.73%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -6.16%E -3.67%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.78%EV -4.21%E -1.94%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.22%EV -5.60%E -3.31%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.78%EV -4.21%E -1.94%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.22%EV -5.60%E -3.31%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -5.09%E -2.37%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.81%E -1.61%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.09%E -2.37%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.09%E -2.37%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.60%E -3.31%K -8.12%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-21 22:32 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.09%E -2.37%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -6.16%E -3.67%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.09%E -2.37%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.72%E -4.02%K -10.03%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.09%E -2.37%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.84%E -4.75%K -12.05%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.09%E -2.37%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.84%E -4.75%K -12.05%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.09%E -2.37%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.84%E -4.75%K -12.05%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -3.93%E -2.28%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -3.93%E -2.28%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.37%E -1.95%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.37%E -1.95%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 22:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.37%E -1.95%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.37%E -1.95%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.37%E -1.95%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.04%E -2.97%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -6.16%E -3.67%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.72%E -4.02%K -10.03%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.72%E -4.02%K -10.03%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19% | 0.5% | 2026-03-21 22:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19% | 0.5% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19% | 0.5% | 2026-03-21 22:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19% | 0.5% | 2026-03-21 22:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48% | 1.2% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Novig◎ | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.83% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.17% | 1.7% | 2026-03-21 22:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.79% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.21% | 2.3% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |