L’École des cotes

Gabriel Diallo v Ugo Humbert

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-21 22:40 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

48 opérateurs (14 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Gabriel Diallo (Local)

Prévision 44.14%2.27cote équitable
EV +1.53%
Avantage +0.664%
Kelly +1.18%
Croissance +0.018%

avec la cote maximale 2.30

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
42.07%43.93%44.30%45.17%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.102.162.142.3047.62%46.39%46.73%43.48%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Ugo Humbert (Visiteur)

Prévision 55.86%1.79cote équitable
EV -2.81%
Avantage -1.61%
Kelly -3.80%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.74

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
54.83%56.07%55.70%57.93%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.621.691.711.7461.73%59.02%58.48%57.47%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (48 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
LowVig.ag2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV +1.53%E +0.664%K +1.18%G +0.018%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -6.72%E -4.02%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-21 22:34
BetOnline.ag2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV +1.53%E +0.664%K +1.18%G +0.018%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -6.72%E -4.02%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-21 22:34
Bovada2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -0.679%E -0.302%K -0.543%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -6.72%E -4.02%K -10.03%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-21 22:30
Betway2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -0.679%E -0.302%K -0.543%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -7.84%E -4.75%K -12.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-21 22:34
DraftKings2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -0.679%E -0.302%K -0.543%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -7.84%E -4.75%K -12.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-21 22:34
1xBet2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%EV -2.89%E -1.31%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%EV -2.81%E -1.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-21 22:34
theScore Bet2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.89%E -1.31%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.72%E -4.02%K -10.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-21 22:34
PlayUp2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -2.89%E -1.31%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.84%E -4.75%K -12.05%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-21 22:34
TAB2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -2.89%E -1.31%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -9.51%E -5.87%K -15.34%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-21 22:35
FanDuel2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -3.77%E -1.73%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -5.60%E -3.31%K -8.12%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-21 22:35
Unibet (FR)2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -3.77%E -1.73%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -5.60%E -3.31%K -8.12%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-21 22:34
Bet Right2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -3.77%E -1.73%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -6.16%E -3.67%K -9.06%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 22:34
SportsBet2.17I 46.08%NM 43.78%EV -4.21%E -1.94%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.22%EV -5.60%E -3.31%K -8.12%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-21 22:34
GTbets2.17I 46.08%NM 43.78%EV -4.21%E -1.94%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.22%EV -5.60%E -3.31%K -8.12%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-21 22:34
Winamax (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -5.09%E -2.37%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.81%E -1.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-21 22:34
Fanatics2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.09%E -2.37%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-21 22:34
Caesars2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.09%E -2.37%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.60%E -3.31%K -8.12%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-21 22:32
Betr (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.09%E -2.37%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -6.16%E -3.67%K -9.06%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-21 22:34
PMU (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.09%E -2.37%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.72%E -4.02%K -10.03%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-21 22:34
Coral2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.09%E -2.37%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.84%E -4.75%K -12.05%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-21 22:34
Ladbrokes (UK)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.09%E -2.37%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.84%E -4.75%K -12.05%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-21 22:34
Fliff2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.09%E -2.37%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.84%E -4.75%K -12.05%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-21 22:34
Unibet (UK)2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -3.93%E -2.28%K -5.45%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-21 22:34
ReBet2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -3.93%E -2.28%K -5.45%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-21 22:34
LeoVegas2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-21 22:34
LiveScore Bet2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-21 22:34
Grosvenor2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-21 22:34
Unibet (NL)2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-21 22:34
Casumo2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-21 22:34
Unibet (SE)2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-21 22:34
TABtouch2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-21 22:34
LeoVegas (SE)2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-21 22:34
Unibet2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-21 22:34
BetRivers2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-21 22:34
betPARX2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-21 22:34
Svenska Spel2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-21 22:34
Bally Bet2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-21 22:34
ATG (SE)2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.53%E -2.59%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-21 22:34
888sport2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.37%E -1.95%K -4.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 22:34
William Hill2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.37%E -1.95%K -4.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 22:35
BoyleSports2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.37%E -1.95%K -4.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 22:34
888sport (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.37%E -1.95%K -4.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 22:34
Mr Green (SE)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.37%E -1.95%K -4.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-21 22:34
PointsBet (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.32%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-21 22:34
Winamax (FR)2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.04%E -2.97%K -7.20%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-21 22:34
Virgin Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -6.16%E -3.67%K -9.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-21 22:34
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.72%E -4.02%K -10.03%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-21 22:34
Bet Victor2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.72%E -4.02%K -10.03%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-21 22:34
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (7)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%0.5%2026-03-21 22:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%0.5%2026-03-21 22:34
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%0.5%2026-03-21 22:35
Matchbook2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81%1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19%0.5%2026-03-21 22:35
ProphetX2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%1.2%2026-03-21 22:34
Novig2.35I 42.55%NM 41.83%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.17%1.7%2026-03-21 22:35
Smarkets2.34I 42.74%NM 41.79%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.21%2.3%2026-03-21 22:34