Language:English
Francisco Cerundolo v Thiago Agustin Tirante
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Francisco Cerundolo (Local)
Prediction 73.38%1.36fair odd
EV -1.67%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -4.91%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.80%73.35%73.09%75.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.291.281.3480.00%77.69%78.13%74.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Thiago Agustin Tirante (Visit)
Prediction 26.62%3.76fair odd
EV +1.15%
Edge +0.303%
Kelly +0.411%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 3.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.75%26.65%26.91%29.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.603.603.8031.25%27.81%27.78%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Francisco Cerundolo (Local): 73.38%; Thiago Agustin Tirante (Visit): 26.62%. For Thiago Agustin Tirante (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.76. 17 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.15%.
Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -5.34%E -4.14%K -18.41%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV +1.15%E +0.303%K +0.411%G +0.005% | 3.8% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -6.81%E -5.36%K -25.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV +1.15%E +0.303%K +0.411%G +0.005% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 21:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -6.81%E -5.36%K -25.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV +1.15%E +0.303%K +0.411%G +0.005% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 21:34 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -6.81%E -5.36%K -25.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV +1.15%E +0.303%K +0.411%G +0.005% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 21:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -6.81%E -5.36%K -25.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV +1.15%E +0.303%K +0.411%G +0.005% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 21:34 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -6.81%E -5.36%K -25.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV +1.15%E +0.303%K +0.411%G +0.005% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 21:34 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -6.81%E -5.36%K -25.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV +1.15%E +0.303%K +0.411%G +0.005% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 21:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -6.81%E -5.36%K -25.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV +1.15%E +0.303%K +0.411%G +0.005% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 21:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -6.81%E -5.36%K -25.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV +1.15%E +0.303%K +0.411%G +0.005% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 21:34 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -6.81%E -5.36%K -25.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV +1.15%E +0.303%K +0.411%G +0.005% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 21:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -6.81%E -5.36%K -25.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV +1.15%E +0.303%K +0.411%G +0.005% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 21:34 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -6.81%E -5.36%K -25.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV +1.15%E +0.303%K +0.411%G +0.005% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 21:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -6.81%E -5.36%K -25.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV +1.15%E +0.303%K +0.411%G +0.005% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 21:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -6.81%E -5.36%K -25.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV +1.15%E +0.303%K +0.411%G +0.005% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 21:34 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -6.81%E -5.36%K -25.21%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV +1.15%E +0.303%K +0.411%G +0.005% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 21:34 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -8.27%E -6.62%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV +1.15%E +0.303%K +0.411%G +0.005% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 21:33 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.85%EV -6.81%E -5.36%K -25.21%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.15%EV +0.618%E +0.163%K +0.222%G +0.001% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -6.81%E -5.36%K -25.21%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -0.181%E -0.048%K -0.066%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 21:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -6.07%E -4.74%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -1.51%E -0.409%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 22:19 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -6.07%E -4.74%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -1.51%E -0.409%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 22:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -6.81%E -5.36%K -25.21%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -1.51%E -0.409%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 21:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -8.27%E -6.62%K -33.09%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -1.51%E -0.409%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-21 21:34 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -5.34%E -4.14%K -18.41%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -2.84%E -0.779%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-21 22:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -6.07%E -4.74%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -2.84%E -0.779%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.73%EV -5.34%E -4.14%K -18.41%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.27%EV -3.64%E -1.01%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 22:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.34%E -4.14%K -18.41%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.17%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 22:24 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.34%E -4.14%K -18.41%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.17%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 22:24 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.34%E -4.14%K -18.41%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.17%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 22:24 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.34%E -4.14%K -18.41%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.17%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 22:24 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -6.81%E -5.36%K -25.21%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -4.17%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 21:34 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -6.81%E -5.36%K -25.21%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -4.17%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -6.81%E -5.36%K -25.21%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -4.17%E -1.16%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 22:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.91%EV -2.40%E -1.81%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 27.09%EV -4.71%E -1.31%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.05%EV -3.87%E -2.95%K -12.48%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.95%EV -5.50%E -1.55%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-21 22:35 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -6.07%E -4.74%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -5.50%E -1.55%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 22:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -3.14%E -2.38%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -6.84%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-21 22:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -3.14%E -2.38%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -6.84%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-21 22:28 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.60%E -3.54%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.84%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-21 22:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.60%E -3.54%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.84%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-21 22:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.60%E -3.54%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.84%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-21 22:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -6.81%E -5.36%K -25.21%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -6.84%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -3.87%E -2.95%K -12.48%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -8.17%E -2.37%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.60%E -3.54%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -8.17%E -2.37%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-21 22:29 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.09%EV -6.81%E -5.36%K -25.21%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.91%EV -8.17%E -2.37%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-21 22:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -2.40%E -1.81%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -9.50%E -2.79%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.60%E -3.54%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.50%E -2.79%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 22:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.60%E -3.54%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.50%E -2.79%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 22:24 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -5.34%E -4.14%K -18.41%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -9.50%E -2.79%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 22:29 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.96%EV -7.54%E -5.98%K -29.00%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -9.50%E -2.79%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.55%EV -1.67%E -1.25%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.45%EV -10.30%E -3.06%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-21 22:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.55%EV -1.67%E -1.25%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.45%EV -10.30%E -3.06%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-21 22:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -3.14%E -2.38%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -10.83%E -3.23%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-21 22:29 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -6.07%E -4.74%K -21.68%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -12.16%E -3.68%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-21 22:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -2.40%E -1.81%K -7.28%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -13.49%E -4.15%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 22:19 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -5.34%E -4.14%K -18.41%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -13.49%E -4.15%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -3.14%E -2.38%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -14.82%E -4.63%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-21 22:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 0.7% | 2026-03-21 22:29 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.1% | 2026-03-21 22:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.1% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.1% | 2026-03-21 22:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.41% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.59% | 1.7% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.29% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.71% | 2.6% | 2026-03-21 22:34 |
| Novig◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 72.65% | 3.56I 28.09%NM 27.35% | 2.7% | 2026-03-21 22:30 |