Language:English
Francisco Cerundolo v Daniil Medvedev
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Francisco Cerundolo (Local)
Prediction 25.17%3.97fair odd
EV +0.670%
Edge +0.168%
Kelly +0.223%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.37%25.04%25.35%26.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.803.754.0027.78%26.29%26.67%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Daniil Medvedev (Visit)
Prediction 74.83%1.34fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -2.09%
Kelly -9.06%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.92%74.96%74.65%76.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.271.271.3081.97%78.98%78.74%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Francisco Cerundolo (Local): 25.17%; Daniil Medvedev (Visit): 74.83%. For Francisco Cerundolo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.97. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.670%.
Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV +0.670%E +0.168%K +0.223%G +0.001% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -4.96%E -3.91%K -18.38%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-23 15:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +0.670%E +0.168%K +0.223%G +0.001% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.46%E -5.17%K -25.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-23 14:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +0.670%E +0.168%K +0.223%G +0.001% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.46%E -5.17%K -25.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-23 15:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +0.670%E +0.168%K +0.223%G +0.001% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.46%E -5.17%K -25.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-23 14:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +0.670%E +0.168%K +0.223%G +0.001% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.46%E -5.17%K -25.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-23 15:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +0.670%E +0.168%K +0.223%G +0.001% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.46%E -5.17%K -25.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-23 15:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +0.670%E +0.168%K +0.223%G +0.001% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.46%E -5.17%K -25.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-23 15:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +0.670%E +0.168%K +0.223%G +0.001% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.46%E -5.17%K -25.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-23 15:35 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV +0.670%E +0.168%K +0.223%G +0.001% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -8.70%E -7.13%K -39.57%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-23 15:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.47%EV -1.34%E -0.343%K -0.460%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.53%EV -4.96%E -3.91%K -18.38%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-23 15:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.47%EV -1.34%E -0.343%K -0.460%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.53%EV -4.96%E -3.91%K -18.38%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-23 15:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -1.85%E -0.473%K -0.637%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -4.96%E -3.91%K -18.38%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-23 15:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -1.85%E -0.473%K -0.637%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -7.21%E -5.81%K -30.03%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-23 15:34 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.24%EV -3.10%E -0.806%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.76%EV -2.72%E -2.09%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-23 14:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -3.10%E -0.806%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.20%EV -4.96%E -3.91%K -18.38%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-23 15:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -3.10%E -0.806%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.71%E -4.53%K -21.97%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-23 14:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -3.10%E -0.806%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -6.46%E -5.17%K -25.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-23 15:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -3.10%E -0.806%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -6.46%E -5.17%K -25.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-23 14:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.83I 26.11%NM 25.05%EV -3.61%E -0.942%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.95%EV -4.21%E -3.29%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-23 08:24 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -4.36%E -1.15%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.96%E -3.91%K -18.38%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-23 14:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -4.36%E -1.15%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.96%E -3.91%K -18.38%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-23 14:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -4.36%E -1.15%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.46%E -5.17%K -25.84%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-23 15:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -4.36%E -1.15%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.46%E -5.17%K -25.84%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-23 15:34 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -4.36%E -1.15%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.46%E -5.17%K -25.84%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-22 13:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.47%E -2.69%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-23 10:58 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.47%E -2.69%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-23 11:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.21%E -3.29%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.21%E -3.29%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.21%E -3.29%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-23 11:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.21%E -3.29%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-23 15:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.21%E -3.29%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.21%E -3.29%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-23 11:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.21%E -3.29%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.21%E -3.29%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.21%E -3.29%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.21%E -3.29%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.21%E -3.29%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-23 11:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.21%E -3.29%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-23 11:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.21%E -3.29%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.21%E -3.29%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-23 11:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.21%E -3.29%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.21%E -3.29%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-23 11:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.21%E -3.29%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.21%E -3.29%K -15.05%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-23 11:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.96%E -3.91%K -18.38%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-23 15:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.46%E -5.17%K -25.84%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-23 14:59 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.46%E -5.17%K -25.84%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-23 15:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -5.62%E -1.50%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -8.70%E -7.13%K -39.57%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-23 15:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.35%EV -5.87%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.65%EV -4.96%E -3.91%K -18.38%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-23 15:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -6.88%E -1.86%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -4.96%E -3.91%K -18.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -6.88%E -1.86%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -4.96%E -3.91%K -18.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-23 11:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -6.88%E -1.86%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -6.46%E -5.17%K -25.84%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.51%EV -7.38%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.49%EV -5.71%E -4.53%K -21.97%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-23 08:24 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -9.40%E -2.61%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -4.96%E -3.91%K -18.38%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -9.40%E -2.61%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.71%E -4.53%K -21.97%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-23 10:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -9.40%E -2.61%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.46%E -5.17%K -25.84%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-23 14:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 4.27I 23.42%NM 23.34% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.66% | 0.3% | 2026-03-23 15:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-03-23 15:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 0.9% | 2026-03-23 15:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 0.9% | 2026-03-23 15:34 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.25I 23.53%NM 23.29% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.71% | 1.0% | 2026-03-23 15:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.94% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.06% | 1.4% | 2026-03-23 15:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.80% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.20% | 2.0% | 2026-03-23 15:35 |