Language:English
Adam Walton v Sebastian Baez
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Adam Walton (Local)
Prediction 43.84%2.28fair odd
EV -0.043%
Edge -0.019%
Kelly -0.034%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.86%43.80%43.93%44.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.182.202.2847.62%45.80%45.45%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sebastian Baez (Visit)
Prediction 56.16%1.78fair odd
EV -2.28%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -3.08%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.74
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.12%56.20%56.07%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.681.681.7462.50%59.48%59.52%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Adam Walton (Local): 43.84%; Sebastian Baez (Visit): 56.16%. For Adam Walton (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.281. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.280, with an expected value of -0.043%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.98%EV -0.043%E -0.019%K -0.034%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.02%EV -7.34%E -4.45%K -11.29%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.94%EV -0.482%E -0.212%K -0.379%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.06%EV -7.90%E -4.82%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.18%EV -1.36%E -0.604%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.82%EV -3.97%E -2.32%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -1.36%E -0.604%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -9.02%E -5.57%K -14.55%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.54%EV -2.24%E -1.00%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.46%EV -3.41%E -1.98%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-20 21:09 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%EV -2.24%E -1.00%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%EV -4.53%E -2.66%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%EV -2.24%E -1.00%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%EV -4.53%E -2.66%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -3.55%E -1.61%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -5.09%E -3.01%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-20 21:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.55%E -1.61%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.65%E -3.36%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.55%E -1.61%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.65%E -3.36%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.55%E -1.61%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.65%E -3.36%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.55%E -1.61%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.65%E -3.36%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.55%E -1.61%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.65%E -3.36%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.55%E -1.61%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.65%E -3.36%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.55%E -1.61%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.65%E -3.36%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.55%E -1.61%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.65%E -3.36%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.55%E -1.61%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.65%E -3.36%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.55%E -1.61%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.65%E -3.36%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.55%E -1.61%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.65%E -3.36%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.55%E -1.61%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.65%E -3.36%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.55%E -1.61%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.65%E -3.36%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.55%E -1.61%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.65%E -3.36%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.55%E -1.61%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.21%E -3.72%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.55%E -1.61%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.21%E -3.72%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.55%E -1.61%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.21%E -3.72%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.55%E -1.61%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.21%E -3.72%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.55%E -1.61%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.21%E -3.72%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.55%E -1.61%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.34%E -4.45%K -11.29%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -3.55%E -1.61%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -9.02%E -5.57%K -14.55%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.43%E -2.03%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.65%E -3.36%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%EV -4.43%E -2.03%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.67%EV -10.15%E -6.34%K -16.91%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -4.87%E -2.24%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -4.53%E -2.66%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -4.87%E -2.24%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -4.53%E -2.66%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -5.74%E -2.67%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.28%E -1.31%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -5.74%E -2.67%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -2.84%E -1.64%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.74%E -2.67%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.97%E -2.32%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.74%E -2.67%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.97%E -2.32%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.74%E -2.67%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.09%E -3.01%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-20 21:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.74%E -2.67%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.65%E -3.36%K -8.31%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.74%E -2.67%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.21%E -3.72%K -9.27%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.74%E -2.67%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.34%E -4.45%K -11.29%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-20 21:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.74%E -2.67%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.34%E -4.45%K -11.29%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.74%E -2.67%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.34%E -4.45%K -11.29%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -6.18%E -2.89%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -3.41%E -1.98%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -6.18%E -2.89%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -3.41%E -1.98%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -6.18%E -2.89%K -5.42%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -3.41%E -1.98%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.93%E -3.78%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.97%E -2.32%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.93%E -3.78%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.97%E -2.32%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.93%E -3.78%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.53%E -2.66%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -7.93%E -3.78%K -7.21%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -7.34%E -4.45%K -11.29%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33% | 0.8% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33% | 0.8% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33% | 0.8% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 42.01% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.99% | 0.9% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.94% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.06% | 1.9% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |
| Novig◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.29% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.71% | 1.9% | 2026-03-20 21:10 |