Language:English
Alejandro Tabilo v Valentin Royer
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alejandro Tabilo (Local)
Prediction 71.20%1.40fair odd
EV -2.46%
Edge -1.80%
Kelly -6.66%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.37
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.81%71.22%71.35%73.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.261.321.331.3779.37%75.52%75.19%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Valentin Royer (Visit)
Prediction 28.80%3.47fair odd
EV +0.816%
Edge +0.233%
Kelly +0.327%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.93%28.78%28.65%31.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.253.253.5033.33%30.72%30.77%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alejandro Tabilo (Local): 71.20%; Valentin Royer (Visit): 28.80%. For Valentin Royer (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.47. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.816%.
Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -6.73%E -5.14%K -21.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV +0.816%E +0.233%K +0.327%G +0.003% | 4.9% | 2026-04-22 18:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -6.73%E -5.14%K -21.72%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV +0.816%E +0.233%K +0.327%G +0.003% | 4.9% | 2026-04-22 18:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.45%E -5.73%K -24.82%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.816%E +0.233%K +0.327%G +0.003% | 5.5% | 2026-04-22 18:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.45%E -5.73%K -24.82%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.816%E +0.233%K +0.327%G +0.003% | 5.5% | 2026-04-22 18:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -7.45%E -5.73%K -24.82%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +0.816%E +0.233%K +0.327%G +0.003% | 5.5% | 2026-04-22 18:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -8.16%E -6.32%K -28.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV +0.816%E +0.233%K +0.327%G +0.003% | 6.1% | 2026-04-22 18:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.82%EV -3.89%E -2.88%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.44I 29.07%NM 28.18%EV -0.912%E -0.265%K -0.374%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-22 18:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -9.58%E -7.54%K -35.49%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -2.06%E -0.607%K -0.860%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-22 18:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.28%EV -3.89%E -2.88%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.72%EV -3.50%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-22 18:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.50%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-22 18:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.50%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-22 18:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.50%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-22 18:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.50%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-22 18:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.50%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-22 18:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -6.02%E -4.56%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -3.50%E -1.05%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-22 18:31 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.91%EV -2.46%E -1.80%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 29.09%EV -3.79%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-04-22 18:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -6.02%E -4.56%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -4.94%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-22 18:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -6.02%E -4.56%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -4.94%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-22 18:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -6.02%E -4.56%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -4.94%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-22 18:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -6.02%E -4.56%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -4.94%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-22 18:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -6.02%E -4.56%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -4.94%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-22 18:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.73%E -5.14%K -21.72%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -4.94%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-22 18:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.21%EV -9.58%E -7.54%K -35.49%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -4.94%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-22 18:35 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.91%EV -3.89%E -2.88%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 29.09%EV -5.23%E -1.59%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-22 18:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.87%EV -4.60%E -3.43%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 29.13%EV -6.10%E -1.87%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-22 18:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -6.38%E -1.96%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-22 18:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -6.38%E -1.96%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-22 18:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -3.89%E -2.88%K -11.10%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -6.38%E -1.96%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-22 18:27 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -4.60%E -3.43%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -6.38%E -1.96%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-22 18:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -4.60%E -3.43%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -6.38%E -1.96%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-22 18:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -4.60%E -3.43%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -6.38%E -1.96%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-22 18:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -4.60%E -3.43%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -6.38%E -1.96%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-22 18:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.38%E -1.96%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-22 18:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.38%E -1.96%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-22 18:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.38%E -1.96%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-22 18:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -6.02%E -4.56%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.38%E -1.96%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-22 18:31 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -6.02%E -4.56%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.38%E -1.96%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-22 18:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -6.02%E -4.56%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.38%E -1.96%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-22 18:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -7.45%E -5.73%K -24.82%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -6.38%E -1.96%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-22 18:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -7.45%E -5.73%K -24.82%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -6.38%E -1.96%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-22 18:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.74%EV -8.87%E -6.93%K -31.68%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.26%EV -6.38%E -1.96%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-22 18:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.83%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-22 18:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.45%E -5.73%K -24.82%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -7.83%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-22 18:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 71.75%EV -10.29%E -8.17%K -39.59%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -7.83%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-04-22 18:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.16%EV -4.60%E -3.43%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-22 18:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -6.02%E -4.56%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-22 18:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -6.02%E -4.56%K -18.82%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -9.27%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-22 18:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -10.71%E -3.45%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-22 18:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -10.71%E -3.45%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-22 18:29 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -4.60%E -3.43%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -10.71%E -3.45%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-22 18:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.71%E -3.45%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-22 18:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.71%E -3.45%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-22 18:31 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -10.71%E -3.45%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-22 18:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.45%EV -7.45%E -5.73%K -24.82%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -10.71%E -3.45%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-22 18:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -13.59%E -4.53%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-22 18:35 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.17%E -2.33%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -13.59%E -4.53%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-22 18:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -13.59%E -4.53%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-22 18:34 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -13.59%E -4.53%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-22 18:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.09%EV -8.87%E -6.93%K -31.68%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.91%EV -13.59%E -4.53%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-22 18:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57% | 0.8% | 2026-04-22 18:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57% | 0.8% | 2026-04-22 18:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.02% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.98% | 2.1% | 2026-04-22 18:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.45% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.55% | 2.2% | 2026-04-22 18:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 71.28% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.72% | 2.4% | 2026-04-22 18:35 |
| Novig◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.64% | 3.41I 29.33%NM 28.36% | 3.4% | 2026-04-22 18:35 |