The School of Tennis Oddsodds.tennis
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Matteo Berrettini v Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

2026-10-03 02:00 UTC — ATP Japan Open

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Matteo Berrettini (Local)

Prediction 58.88%1.70fair odd
EV -2.84%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -4.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.69%59.07%58.89%62.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.571.581.6568.97%63.66%63.49%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Visit)

Prediction 41.12%2.43fair odd
EV +2.79%
Edge +1.12%
Kelly +1.86%
Growth +0.052%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.66%40.93%41.11%42.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.342.312.5046.51%42.65%43.29%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Matteo Berrettini (Local): 58.88%; Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Visit): 41.12%. For Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.43. 13 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.50, producing a positive expected value of +2.79%.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -9.91%E -6.48%K -18.69%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +2.79%E +1.12%K +1.86%G +0.052%5.4%2026-10-01 14:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -10.50%E -6.91%K -20.19%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV +2.79%E +1.12%K +1.86%G +0.052%5.8%2026-10-01 14:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -10.50%E -6.91%K -20.19%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV +2.79%E +1.12%K +1.86%G +0.052%5.8%2026-10-01 14:10
TABtouch🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -11.09%E -7.34%K -21.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +2.79%E +1.12%K +1.86%G +0.052%6.2%2026-10-01 14:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -11.09%E -7.34%K -21.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +2.79%E +1.12%K +1.86%G +0.052%6.2%2026-10-01 14:10
Unibet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -11.09%E -7.34%K -21.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +2.79%E +1.12%K +1.86%G +0.052%6.2%2026-10-01 14:10
Casumo🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -11.09%E -7.34%K -21.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +2.79%E +1.12%K +1.86%G +0.052%6.2%2026-10-01 14:10
Grosvenor🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -11.09%E -7.34%K -21.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +2.79%E +1.12%K +1.86%G +0.052%6.2%2026-10-01 14:10
BetRivers🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -11.09%E -7.34%K -21.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +2.79%E +1.12%K +1.86%G +0.052%6.2%2026-10-01 14:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -11.09%E -7.34%K -21.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +2.79%E +1.12%K +1.86%G +0.052%6.2%2026-10-01 14:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -11.09%E -7.34%K -21.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +2.79%E +1.12%K +1.86%G +0.052%6.2%2026-10-01 14:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -11.09%E -7.34%K -21.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +2.79%E +1.12%K +1.86%G +0.052%6.2%2026-10-01 14:15
betPARX🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -11.09%E -7.34%K -21.74%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +2.79%E +1.12%K +1.86%G +0.052%6.2%2026-10-01 14:15
Pinnacle🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%EV -4.02%E -2.47%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%EV -1.32%E -0.550%K -0.943%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-01 18:35
BetAnything🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -5.20%E -3.23%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -1.32%E -0.550%K -0.943%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-01 19:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.34%EV -14.62%E -10.08%K -32.49%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -1.32%E -0.550%K -0.943%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-01 14:10
BetUS🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.70%EV -5.79%E -3.62%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.30%EV -2.55%E -1.08%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-01 19:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.90%EV -6.96%E -4.41%K -12.01%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.10%EV -2.97%E -1.26%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-01 18:31
LowVig.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.84%E -1.72%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.38%E -1.44%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-01 18:41
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.84%E -1.72%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.38%E -1.44%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-01 18:40
Bovada🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.20%E -3.23%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.38%E -1.44%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-01 17:50
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.55%E -4.81%K -13.25%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.38%E -1.44%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-01 18:25
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -4.61%E -2.84%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV -3.79%E -1.62%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-01 19:00
Coolbet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -5.20%E -3.23%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -4.20%E -1.80%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-01 18:30
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -4.61%E -2.84%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -4.61%E -1.99%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-01 15:39
Bet Right🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -5.20%E -3.23%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -4.61%E -1.99%K -3.49%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-01 18:35
GTbets🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.26%EV -9.91%E -6.48%K -18.69%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.74%EV -4.61%E -1.99%K -3.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-01 15:40
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.61%E -2.84%K -7.43%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.43%E -2.36%K -4.18%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-01 17:45
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.20%E -3.23%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.43%E -2.36%K -4.18%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-01 17:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.20%E -3.23%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.43%E -2.36%K -4.18%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-01 17:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.20%E -3.23%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.43%E -2.36%K -4.18%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-01 17:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.79%E -3.62%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.43%E -2.36%K -4.18%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-01 18:58
Betr (AU)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.38%E -4.01%K -10.81%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -5.43%E -2.36%K -4.18%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-01 19:40
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.38%E -4.01%K -10.81%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -5.43%E -2.36%K -4.18%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-01 19:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -6.96%E -4.41%K -12.01%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -5.43%E -2.36%K -4.18%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-01 18:29
Neds🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -6.96%E -4.41%K -12.01%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -5.43%E -2.36%K -4.18%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-01 18:30
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -8.73%E -5.63%K -15.87%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -5.43%E -2.36%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-01 18:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -8.73%E -5.63%K -15.87%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -5.43%E -2.36%K -4.18%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-01 18:24
SportsBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.17%EV -6.96%E -4.41%K -12.01%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.83%EV -5.84%E -2.55%K -4.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-01 18:59
NordicBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -5.20%E -3.23%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -6.25%E -2.74%K -4.89%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-01 18:59
Betsson🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -5.20%E -3.23%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -6.25%E -2.74%K -4.89%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-01 18:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -5.20%E -3.23%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -6.25%E -2.74%K -4.89%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-01 18:59
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.84%E -1.72%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.49%E -3.33%K -5.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-01 18:30
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.20%E -3.23%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.49%E -3.33%K -5.99%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-01 18:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.79%E -3.62%K -9.64%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.49%E -3.33%K -5.99%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-01 18:59
LeoVegas🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.55%E -4.81%K -13.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.49%E -3.33%K -5.99%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-01 18:29
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.55%E -4.81%K -13.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.49%E -3.33%K -5.99%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-01 15:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.55%E -4.81%K -13.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.49%E -3.33%K -5.99%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-01 18:59
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.55%E -4.81%K -13.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.49%E -3.33%K -5.99%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-01 15:45
Bet Victor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.55%E -4.81%K -13.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.49%E -3.33%K -5.99%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-01 17:47
betano_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.55%E -4.81%K -13.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.49%E -3.33%K -5.99%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-01 17:45
ReBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.29%EV -8.14%E -5.22%K -14.54%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.71%EV -10.37%E -4.76%K -8.78%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-01 18:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.27%EV -9.32%E -6.05%K -17.26%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -11.60%E -5.40%K -10.09%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-01 18:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.27%EV -9.32%E -6.05%K -17.26%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -11.60%E -5.40%K -10.09%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-01 18:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.54I 64.94%NM 49.34%1.50I 66.67%NM 50.66%31.6%2026-10-01 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 37.92%1.02I 98.04%NM 62.08%57.9%2026-10-01 19:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 37.92%1.02I 98.04%NM 62.08%57.9%2026-10-01 19:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 37.92%1.02I 98.04%NM 62.08%57.9%2026-10-01 19:20