StandardmodellInterquartilsmittel (Kuratierte Liste)

Matteo Berrettini v Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

2026-10-03 02:00 UTC — ATP Japan Open

Direkter Vergleich

54 Wettanbieter (18 in der Analyse )

Geschätzte Wahrscheinlichkeit jedes Ergebnisses nach dem Modell: Interquartilsmittel (Kuratierte Liste)

Matteo Berrettini (Heim)

Prognose 58.92%1.70faire Quote
EV -2.78%
Vorteil -1.69%
Kelly -4.28%
Wachstum +0.000%

bei einer Höchstquote von 1.65

Verteilung der Wettanbieterprognosen
58.27%59.19%58.90%62.34%MIN.MITTELMEDIANMAX.
Quotenverteilung
1.471.571.581.6568.03%63.63%63.29%60.61%MIN.MITTELMEDIANMAX.

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Auswärts)

Prognose 41.08%2.43faire Quote
EV +2.70%
Vorteil +1.08%
Kelly +1.80%
Wachstum +0.049%

bei einer Höchstquote von 2.50

Verteilung der Wettanbieterprognosen
37.66%40.81%41.10%41.73%MIN.MITTELMEDIANMAX.
Quotenverteilung
2.152.352.312.5046.51%42.61%43.29%40.00%MIN.MITTELMEDIANMAX.

Für Direkter Vergleich schätzt Interquartilsmittel (Kuratierte Liste) folgende Wahrscheinlichkeiten: Matteo Berrettini (Heim): 58.92%; Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Auswärts): 41.08%. Für Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Auswärts) entspricht diese Schätzung einer fairen Dezimalquote von 2.43. 14 Wettanbieter bieten Quoten über diesem Wert an; die beste verfügbare Quote beträgt 2.50 und ergibt einen positiven Erwartungswert von +2.70%.

Wettanbieterquoten (54 Wettanbieter)

Wir sind mit keinem Wettanbieter verbunden und erhalten keinerlei Ertrag aus Handlungen, die bei diesen Anbietern vorgenommen werden.

WettanbieterHeimAuswärts ▼MargeAktualisiert
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -9.85%E -6.44%K -18.59%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +2.70%E +1.08%K +1.80%G +0.049%5.4%2026-10-01 14:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -10.44%E -6.87%K -20.08%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV +2.70%E +1.08%K +1.80%G +0.049%5.8%2026-10-01 14:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -10.44%E -6.87%K -20.08%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV +2.70%E +1.08%K +1.80%G +0.049%5.8%2026-10-01 14:10
TABtouch🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -11.03%E -7.31%K -21.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +2.70%E +1.08%K +1.80%G +0.049%6.2%2026-10-01 14:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -11.03%E -7.31%K -21.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +2.70%E +1.08%K +1.80%G +0.049%6.2%2026-10-01 14:10
Unibet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -11.03%E -7.31%K -21.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +2.70%E +1.08%K +1.80%G +0.049%6.2%2026-10-01 14:10
Casumo🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -11.03%E -7.31%K -21.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +2.70%E +1.08%K +1.80%G +0.049%6.2%2026-10-01 14:10
Grosvenor🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -11.03%E -7.31%K -21.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +2.70%E +1.08%K +1.80%G +0.049%6.2%2026-10-01 14:10
BetRivers🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -11.03%E -7.31%K -21.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +2.70%E +1.08%K +1.80%G +0.049%6.2%2026-10-01 14:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -11.03%E -7.31%K -21.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +2.70%E +1.08%K +1.80%G +0.049%6.2%2026-10-01 14:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -11.03%E -7.31%K -21.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +2.70%E +1.08%K +1.80%G +0.049%6.2%2026-10-01 14:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -11.03%E -7.31%K -21.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +2.70%E +1.08%K +1.80%G +0.049%6.2%2026-10-01 14:15
betPARX🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -11.03%E -7.31%K -21.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +2.70%E +1.08%K +1.80%G +0.049%6.2%2026-10-01 14:15
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -5.14%E -3.19%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV +0.647%E +0.264%K +0.446%G +0.003%2.9%2026-10-01 20:40
BetAnything🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -5.14%E -3.19%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -1.41%E -0.586%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-01 19:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.02%EV -13.39%E -9.11%K -28.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.98%EV -1.41%E -0.586%K -1.01%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-01 20:15
BetUS🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.70%EV -5.73%E -3.58%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.30%EV -2.64%E -1.11%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-01 19:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.90%EV -6.91%E -4.37%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.10%EV -3.05%E -1.29%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-01 18:31
LowVig.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.78%E -1.69%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.46%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-01 18:41
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.78%E -1.69%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.46%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-01 18:40
Bovada🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.14%E -3.19%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.46%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-01 17:50
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.73%E -3.58%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.46%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-01 20:30
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.50%E -4.77%K -13.15%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.46%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-01 18:25
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -4.55%E -2.81%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV -3.87%E -1.65%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-01 19:00
Bet Right🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -5.73%E -3.58%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV -3.87%E -1.65%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-01 20:25
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -4.55%E -2.81%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -4.69%E -2.02%K -3.56%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-01 15:39
GTbets🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -4.55%E -2.81%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -4.69%E -2.02%K -3.56%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-01 20:15
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.55%E -2.81%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.52%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-01 17:45
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.14%E -3.19%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.52%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-01 17:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.14%E -3.19%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.52%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-01 17:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.14%E -3.19%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.52%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-01 17:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.73%E -3.58%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.52%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-01 18:58
Betway🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.73%E -3.58%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.52%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-01 20:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.32%E -3.97%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -5.52%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-01 20:19
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.32%E -3.97%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -5.52%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-01 19:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -6.91%E -4.37%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -5.52%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-01 18:29
Neds🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -6.91%E -4.37%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -5.52%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-01 18:30
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -8.67%E -5.60%K -15.77%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -5.52%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-01 18:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -8.67%E -5.60%K -15.77%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -5.52%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-01 18:24
SportsBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.17%EV -6.91%E -4.37%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.83%EV -5.93%E -2.59%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-01 18:59
NordicBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -5.14%E -3.19%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -6.34%E -2.78%K -4.95%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-01 18:59
Betsson🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -5.14%E -3.19%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -6.34%E -2.78%K -4.95%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-01 18:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -5.14%E -3.19%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -6.34%E -2.78%K -4.95%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-01 18:59
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.14%E -3.19%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.57%E -3.36%K -6.06%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-01 18:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.73%E -3.58%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.57%E -3.36%K -6.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-01 18:59
LeoVegas🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.50%E -4.77%K -13.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.57%E -3.36%K -6.06%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-01 18:29
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.50%E -4.77%K -13.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.57%E -3.36%K -6.06%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-01 15:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.50%E -4.77%K -13.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.57%E -3.36%K -6.06%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-01 18:59
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.50%E -4.77%K -13.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.57%E -3.36%K -6.06%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-01 15:45
Bet Victor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.50%E -4.77%K -13.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.57%E -3.36%K -6.06%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-01 17:47
betano_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.50%E -4.77%K -13.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.57%E -3.36%K -6.06%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-01 17:45
ReBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.29%EV -8.09%E -5.18%K -14.44%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.71%EV -10.45%E -4.79%K -8.85%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-01 18:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.27%EV -9.26%E -6.02%K -17.15%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -11.68%E -5.43%K -10.15%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-01 18:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.27%EV -9.26%E -6.02%K -17.15%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -11.68%E -5.43%K -10.15%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-01 18:59
Marge = Marge (Wahrscheinlichkeitsüberschuss) · I = Implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit · NM = Margenbereinigte Wahrscheinlichkeit · EV = Erwartungswert · E = Vorteil · K = Kelly-Kriterium · G = Wachstum des Wettkapitals

Aktualisiert gibt an, wann der jeweilige Wettanbieter seinen Preis zuletzt geändert hat. Eine ältere Zeit bedeutet also, dass sich die Quote lediglich nicht bewegt hat, nicht dass sie veraltet ist. Anbieter, die seit etwa 15 Minuten nicht mehr erfasst wurden, werden normalerweise ausgeschlossen; nur wenn die Datenquelle eines ganzen Marktes verstummt, erscheinen stattdessen die zuletzt erfassten Preise.

Wettbörsen (4)

WettanbieterHeimAuswärtsMarge ▲Aktualisiert
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%0.6%2026-10-01 20:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%0.6%2026-10-01 20:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%4.9%2026-10-01 20:45
Matchbook◎1.54I 64.94%NM 59.04%2.22I 45.05%NM 40.96%10.0%2026-10-01 20:25