Modello predefinitoMedia interquartile (Lista Curata)

Matteo Berrettini v Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

2026-10-03 02:00 UTC — ATP Japan Open

Testa a testa

54 bookmaker (18 nell’analisi )

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: Media interquartile (Lista Curata)

Matteo Berrettini (Casa)

Previsione 58.92%1.70quota equa
EV -2.78%
Vantaggio -1.69%
Kelly -4.28%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 1.65

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
58.27%59.19%58.90%62.34%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
1.471.571.581.6568.03%63.63%63.29%60.61%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Trasferta)

Previsione 41.08%2.43quota equa
EV +2.70%
Vantaggio +1.08%
Kelly +1.80%
Crescita +0.049%

ipotizzando la quota massima 2.50

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
37.66%40.81%41.10%41.73%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
2.152.352.312.5046.51%42.61%43.29%40.00%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.

Per Testa a testa, Media interquartile (Lista Curata) stima queste probabilità: Matteo Berrettini (Casa): 58.92%; Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Trasferta): 41.08%. Per Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (Trasferta), questa stima equivale a una quota decimale equa di 2.43. 14 bookmaker offrono quote superiori a tale livello; la migliore quota disponibile è 2.50, con un valore atteso positivo del +2.70%.

Quote dei bookmaker (54 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

BookmakerCasaTrasferta ▼MargineAggiornamento
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -9.85%E -6.44%K -18.59%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV +2.70%E +1.08%K +1.80%G +0.049%5.4%2026-10-01 14:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -10.44%E -6.87%K -20.08%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV +2.70%E +1.08%K +1.80%G +0.049%5.8%2026-10-01 14:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -10.44%E -6.87%K -20.08%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV +2.70%E +1.08%K +1.80%G +0.049%5.8%2026-10-01 14:10
TABtouch🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -11.03%E -7.31%K -21.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +2.70%E +1.08%K +1.80%G +0.049%6.2%2026-10-01 14:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -11.03%E -7.31%K -21.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +2.70%E +1.08%K +1.80%G +0.049%6.2%2026-10-01 14:10
Unibet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -11.03%E -7.31%K -21.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +2.70%E +1.08%K +1.80%G +0.049%6.2%2026-10-01 14:10
Casumo🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -11.03%E -7.31%K -21.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +2.70%E +1.08%K +1.80%G +0.049%6.2%2026-10-01 14:10
Grosvenor🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -11.03%E -7.31%K -21.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +2.70%E +1.08%K +1.80%G +0.049%6.2%2026-10-01 14:10
BetRivers🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -11.03%E -7.31%K -21.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +2.70%E +1.08%K +1.80%G +0.049%6.2%2026-10-01 14:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -11.03%E -7.31%K -21.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +2.70%E +1.08%K +1.80%G +0.049%6.2%2026-10-01 14:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -11.03%E -7.31%K -21.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +2.70%E +1.08%K +1.80%G +0.049%6.2%2026-10-01 14:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -11.03%E -7.31%K -21.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +2.70%E +1.08%K +1.80%G +0.049%6.2%2026-10-01 14:15
betPARX🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -11.03%E -7.31%K -21.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV +2.70%E +1.08%K +1.80%G +0.049%6.2%2026-10-01 14:15
Pinnacle🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -5.14%E -3.19%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV +0.647%E +0.264%K +0.446%G +0.003%2.9%2026-10-01 20:40
BetAnything🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -5.14%E -3.19%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -1.41%E -0.586%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-01 19:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.02%EV -13.39%E -9.11%K -28.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.98%EV -1.41%E -0.586%K -1.01%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-01 20:15
BetUS🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.70%EV -5.73%E -3.58%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.30%EV -2.64%E -1.11%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-01 19:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.90%EV -6.91%E -4.37%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.10%EV -3.05%E -1.29%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-01 18:31
LowVig.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.78%E -1.69%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.46%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-01 18:41
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -2.78%E -1.69%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -3.46%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-01 18:40
Bovada🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -5.14%E -3.19%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.46%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-01 17:50
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.73%E -3.58%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -3.46%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-01 20:30
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.50%E -4.77%K -13.15%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.46%E -1.47%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-01 18:25
FanDuel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.09%EV -4.55%E -2.81%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.91%EV -3.87%E -1.65%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-01 19:00
Bet Right🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -5.73%E -3.58%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV -3.87%E -1.65%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-01 20:25
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -4.55%E -2.81%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -4.69%E -2.02%K -3.56%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-01 15:39
GTbets🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -4.55%E -2.81%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -4.69%E -2.02%K -3.56%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-01 20:15
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.55%E -2.81%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.52%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-01 17:45
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.14%E -3.19%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.52%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-01 17:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.14%E -3.19%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.52%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-01 17:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -5.14%E -3.19%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.52%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-01 17:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.73%E -3.58%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.52%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-01 18:58
Betway🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.73%E -3.58%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.52%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-01 20:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.32%E -3.97%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -5.52%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-01 20:19
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.32%E -3.97%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -5.52%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-01 19:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -6.91%E -4.37%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -5.52%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-01 18:29
Neds🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -6.91%E -4.37%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -5.52%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-01 18:30
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -8.67%E -5.60%K -15.77%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -5.52%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-01 18:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -8.67%E -5.60%K -15.77%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -5.52%E -2.40%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-01 18:24
SportsBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.17%EV -6.91%E -4.37%K -11.91%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.83%EV -5.93%E -2.59%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-01 18:59
NordicBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -5.14%E -3.19%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -6.34%E -2.78%K -4.95%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-01 18:59
Betsson🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -5.14%E -3.19%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -6.34%E -2.78%K -4.95%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-01 18:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -5.14%E -3.19%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV -6.34%E -2.78%K -4.95%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-01 18:59
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.14%E -3.19%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.57%E -3.36%K -6.06%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-01 18:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.73%E -3.58%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.57%E -3.36%K -6.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-01 18:59
LeoVegas🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.50%E -4.77%K -13.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.57%E -3.36%K -6.06%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-01 18:29
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.50%E -4.77%K -13.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.57%E -3.36%K -6.06%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-01 15:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.50%E -4.77%K -13.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.57%E -3.36%K -6.06%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-01 18:59
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.50%E -4.77%K -13.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.57%E -3.36%K -6.06%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-01 15:45
Bet Victor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.50%E -4.77%K -13.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.57%E -3.36%K -6.06%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-01 17:47
betano_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.50%E -4.77%K -13.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.57%E -3.36%K -6.06%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-01 17:45
ReBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.29%EV -8.09%E -5.18%K -14.44%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.71%EV -10.45%E -4.79%K -8.85%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-01 18:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.27%EV -9.26%E -6.02%K -17.15%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -11.68%E -5.43%K -10.15%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-01 18:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.27%EV -9.26%E -6.02%K -17.15%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -11.68%E -5.43%K -10.15%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-01 18:59
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.

Borse di scommesse (4)

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaMargine ▲Aggiornamento
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%0.6%2026-10-01 20:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%0.6%2026-10-01 20:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 57.44%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.56%4.9%2026-10-01 20:45
Matchbook◎1.54I 64.94%NM 59.04%2.22I 45.05%NM 40.96%10.0%2026-10-01 20:25