Language:English
Kei Nishikori v Frances Tiafoe
Head to Head
Kei Nishikori (Local)
Prediction 22.43%4.46fair odd
EV +1.14%
Edge +0.253%
Kelly +0.325%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 4.51
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.15%22.62%22.30%24.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.134.104.5126.67%24.23%24.39%22.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Frances Tiafoe (Visit)
Prediction 77.57%1.29fair odd
EV -3.81%
Edge -3.07%
Kelly -15.87%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.24
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.45%77.38%77.70%78.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.221.221.2484.75%81.91%81.97%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Kei Nishikori (Local): 22.43%; Frances Tiafoe (Visit): 77.57%. For Kei Nishikori (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.46. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.51, producing a positive expected value of +1.14%.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS🎯 | 4.51I 22.17%NM 21.15%EV +1.14%E +0.253%K +0.325%G +0.004% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.85%EV -6.14%E -5.07%K -29.22%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-29 05:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -1.33%E -0.301%K -0.390%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -5.36%E -4.39%K -24.36%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-29 05:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV -2.90%E -0.669%K -0.869%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -5.36%E -4.39%K -24.36%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-29 05:29 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -3.57%E -0.830%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.36%E -4.39%K -24.36%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-29 05:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -3.57%E -0.830%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -6.14%E -5.07%K -29.22%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-29 05:29 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -3.57%E -0.830%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -6.14%E -5.07%K -29.22%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-29 05:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -4.69%E -1.10%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -3.81%E -3.07%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-29 05:26 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -4.69%E -1.10%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -5.36%E -4.39%K -24.36%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-29 05:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -4.69%E -1.10%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -6.91%E -5.76%K -34.56%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-29 05:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -4.69%E -1.10%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -6.91%E -5.76%K -34.56%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-29 05:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -5.81%E -1.38%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.36%E -4.39%K -24.36%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-29 05:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -5.81%E -1.38%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.36%E -4.39%K -24.36%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-29 05:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -5.81%E -1.38%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.36%E -4.39%K -24.36%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-29 05:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -5.81%E -1.38%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.36%E -4.39%K -24.36%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-29 05:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.81%E -1.38%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.91%E -5.76%K -34.56%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-29 05:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.81%E -1.38%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.91%E -5.76%K -34.56%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-29 05:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.81%E -1.38%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.91%E -5.76%K -34.56%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-29 05:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.43%EV -6.93%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.57%EV -6.91%E -5.76%K -34.56%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-29 06:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -8.05%E -1.96%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.81%E -3.07%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-29 05:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -8.05%E -1.96%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.81%E -3.07%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-29 05:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -8.05%E -1.96%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.81%E -3.07%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-29 05:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -8.05%E -1.96%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.81%E -3.07%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-29 05:29 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -8.05%E -1.96%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.81%E -3.07%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-29 05:29 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -8.05%E -1.96%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.81%E -3.07%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-29 05:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -8.05%E -1.96%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.81%E -3.07%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-29 05:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -8.05%E -1.96%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.81%E -3.07%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-29 05:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -8.05%E -1.96%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -3.81%E -3.07%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-29 05:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV -8.05%E -1.96%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -4.58%E -3.73%K -19.93%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-29 05:28 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -10.30%E -2.57%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -3.81%E -3.07%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-29 05:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -10.30%E -2.57%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.36%E -4.39%K -24.36%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-29 05:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -10.30%E -2.57%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -6.91%E -5.76%K -34.56%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-29 05:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -12.54%E -3.21%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -3.81%E -3.07%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-29 05:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -12.54%E -3.21%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -3.81%E -3.07%K -15.87%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-29 05:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.23%EV -12.54%E -3.21%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.77%EV -8.46%E -7.17%K -47.02%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-29 05:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.85%EV -14.78%E -3.89%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 76.15%EV -7.69%E -6.46%K -40.46%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-29 05:40 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -15.90%E -4.24%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -5.36%E -4.39%K -24.36%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-29 06:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -15.90%E -4.24%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -5.36%E -4.39%K -24.36%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-29 06:01 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.21% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 80.79% | 15.7% | 2026-09-29 06:11 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.56% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 80.44% | 16.2% | 2026-09-29 06:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.56% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 80.44% | 16.2% | 2026-09-29 06:11 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.56% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 80.44% | 16.2% | 2026-09-29 06:11 |