Language:English
Kei Nishikori v Frances Tiafoe
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Kei Nishikori (Local)
Prediction 19.61%5.10fair odd
EV +5.90%
Edge +1.09%
Kelly +1.34%
Growth +0.079%
assuming max odds 5.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.68%19.67%19.73%22.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.724.705.4023.81%21.19%21.28%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Frances Tiafoe (Visit)
Prediction 80.39%1.24fair odd
EV -1.93%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -8.75%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.22
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.49%80.33%80.27%82.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.181.181.2287.72%84.71%84.75%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kei Nishikori (Local): 19.61%; Frances Tiafoe (Visit): 80.39%. For Kei Nishikori (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.10. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.90%.
Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV +5.90%E +1.09%K +1.34%G +0.079% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.32%EV -6.75%E -5.82%K -42.18%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-01 05:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 5.31I 18.83%NM 18.06%EV +4.13%E +0.778%K +0.959%G +0.040% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.94%EV -5.94%E -5.08%K -34.97%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-01 03:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 5.31I 18.83%NM 18.06%EV +4.13%E +0.778%K +0.959%G +0.040% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.94%EV -5.94%E -5.08%K -34.97%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-01 03:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.92%EV +0.015%E +0.003%K +0.004%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 81.08%EV -4.34%E -3.64%K -22.83%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-10-01 05:16 |
| GTbets🎯 | 5.06I 19.76%NM 19.43%EV -0.769%E -0.152%K -0.189%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 80.57%EV -1.93%E -1.58%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 1.7% | 2026-10-01 04:25 |
| ReBet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -1.95%E -0.389%K -0.486%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.14%E -4.36%K -28.56%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-01 03:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.95%E -0.389%K -0.486%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.94%E -5.08%K -34.97%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-30 21:35 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.95%E -0.389%K -0.486%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.94%E -5.08%K -34.97%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-01 01:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -1.95%E -0.389%K -0.486%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -6.75%E -5.82%K -42.18%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-30 21:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -1.95%E -0.389%K -0.486%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -7.55%E -6.57%K -50.35%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-01 03:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -1.95%E -0.389%K -0.486%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -7.55%E -6.57%K -50.35%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-30 21:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -1.95%E -0.389%K -0.486%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -7.55%E -6.57%K -50.35%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-30 21:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.54%EV -3.91%E -0.797%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.46%EV -4.34%E -3.64%K -22.83%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-01 05:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -3.91%E -0.797%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -5.14%E -4.36%K -28.56%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-01 03:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.87%EV -3.91%E -0.797%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.13%EV -8.36%E -7.33%K -59.69%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-10-01 00:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 4.81I 20.79%NM 19.70%EV -5.67%E -1.18%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.30%EV -5.14%E -4.36%K -28.56%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-01 04:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -5.87%E -1.22%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -4.34%E -3.64%K -22.83%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-01 04:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -5.87%E -1.22%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -5.14%E -4.36%K -28.56%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-01 05:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.19%EV -5.87%E -1.22%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.81%EV -8.36%E -7.33%K -59.69%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-01 05:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -6.85%E -1.44%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.53%E -2.94%K -17.67%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-01 04:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -6.85%E -1.44%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.34%E -3.64%K -22.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-01 04:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -6.85%E -1.44%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -4.34%E -3.64%K -22.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-01 00:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -6.85%E -1.44%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -5.14%E -4.36%K -28.56%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-01 05:16 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -7.83%E -1.67%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -4.34%E -3.64%K -22.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 00:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -7.83%E -1.67%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -4.34%E -3.64%K -22.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 00:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -7.83%E -1.67%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -4.34%E -3.64%K -22.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 00:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -7.83%E -1.67%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -4.34%E -3.64%K -22.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 00:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -7.83%E -1.67%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -4.34%E -3.64%K -22.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 00:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -7.83%E -1.67%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -4.34%E -3.64%K -22.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 00:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -7.83%E -1.67%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -4.34%E -3.64%K -22.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 00:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -7.83%E -1.67%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -4.34%E -3.64%K -22.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 00:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -7.83%E -1.67%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -4.34%E -3.64%K -22.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 00:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -7.83%E -1.67%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -4.34%E -3.64%K -22.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 00:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -7.83%E -1.67%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -4.34%E -3.64%K -22.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 00:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -7.83%E -1.67%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -4.34%E -3.64%K -22.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-01 00:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -7.83%E -1.67%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -5.14%E -4.36%K -28.56%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-01 05:16 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -7.83%E -1.67%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.07%EV -5.94%E -5.08%K -34.97%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-01 05:16 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.38%EV -8.81%E -1.89%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.62%EV -4.34%E -3.64%K -22.83%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-01 02:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.10%EV -8.81%E -1.89%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.90%EV -5.94%E -5.08%K -34.97%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-01 01:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.97%EV -8.81%E -1.89%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.03%EV -6.75%E -5.82%K -42.18%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-01 05:16 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.97%EV -8.81%E -1.89%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.03%EV -6.75%E -5.82%K -42.18%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-01 05:16 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -9.79%E -2.13%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -5.14%E -4.36%K -28.56%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-30 21:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -9.79%E -2.13%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -5.14%E -4.36%K -28.56%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-30 21:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -11.75%E -2.61%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.53%E -2.94%K -17.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-01 00:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -11.75%E -2.61%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.94%E -5.08%K -34.97%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-01 00:55 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -11.75%E -2.61%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.94%E -5.08%K -34.97%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-01 01:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.72%EV -13.71%E -3.12%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 79.28%EV -7.55%E -6.57%K -50.35%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-01 00:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.34%EV -14.69%E -3.38%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.66%EV -5.14%E -4.36%K -28.56%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-01 05:15 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -15.08%E -3.48%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.58%EV -5.14%E -4.36%K -28.56%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-01 02:35 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -15.08%E -3.48%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.58%EV -5.14%E -4.36%K -28.56%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-01 04:14 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -17.63%E -4.20%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -1.93%E -1.58%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-01 05:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -17.63%E -4.20%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -1.93%E -1.58%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-01 05:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -17.63%E -4.20%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -1.93%E -1.58%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-01 05:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -17.63%E -4.20%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -1.93%E -1.58%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-01 05:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -17.63%E -4.20%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.50%EV -7.55%E -6.57%K -50.35%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-01 03:01 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45% | 0.7% | 2026-10-01 05:16 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45% | 0.7% | 2026-10-01 05:16 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45% | 0.7% | 2026-10-01 05:16 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45% | 0.7% | 2026-10-01 05:16 |