Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Kei Nishikori v Frances Tiafoe

2026-09-30 02:00 UTC — ATP Japan Open

Frente a frente

39 casas de apostas (10 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Kei Nishikori (Local)

Previsão 20.73%4.82odd justa
EV +3.64%
Vantagem +0.729%
Kelly +0.911%
Crescimento +0.033%

pressupondo odds máximas de 5.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
19.35%20.77%21.05%22.63%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.004.594.555.0025.00%21.80%21.98%20.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Frances Tiafoe (Visitante)

Previsão 79.27%1.26odd justa
EV -4.87%
Vantagem -4.06%
Kelly -24.37%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.20

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
77.37%79.23%78.95%80.65%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.141.191.191.2087.72%84.18%84.03%83.33%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Frente a frente, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Kei Nishikori (Local): 20.73%; Frances Tiafoe (Visitante): 79.27%. Para Kei Nishikori (Local), essa estimativa equivale a odds decimais justas de 4.82. 1 casa de apostas oferece odds acima desse nível; as melhores odds disponíveis são 5.00, produzindo um valor esperado positivo de +3.64%.

Odds das casas de apostas (39 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.35%EV +3.64%E +0.729%K +0.911%G +0.033%1.20I 83.33%NM 80.65%EV -4.87%E -4.06%K -24.37%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-29 08:00
BoyleSports🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV -0.502%E -0.105%K -0.132%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -4.87%E -4.06%K -24.37%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-29 08:04
Unibet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -0.502%E -0.105%K -0.132%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -5.67%E -4.76%K -29.83%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-29 08:00
Grosvenor🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -0.502%E -0.105%K -0.132%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -5.67%E -4.76%K -29.83%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-29 08:00
Casumo🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -0.502%E -0.105%K -0.132%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -5.67%E -4.76%K -29.83%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-29 08:00
ATG (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -0.502%E -0.105%K -0.132%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -5.67%E -4.76%K -29.83%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-29 08:00
betPARX🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -0.502%E -0.105%K -0.132%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -5.67%E -4.76%K -29.83%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-29 07:59
Unibet (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -0.502%E -0.105%K -0.132%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -5.67%E -4.76%K -29.83%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-29 08:00
Unibet (NL)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -0.502%E -0.105%K -0.132%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -5.67%E -4.76%K -29.83%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-29 08:00
TABtouch🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -0.502%E -0.105%K -0.132%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -5.67%E -4.76%K -29.83%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-29 08:00
Svenska Spel🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -0.502%E -0.105%K -0.132%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -5.67%E -4.76%K -29.83%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-29 08:00
BetUS🎯4.76I 21.01%NM 20.00%EV -1.33%E -0.280%K -0.354%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.00%EV -5.67%E -4.76%K -29.83%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-29 08:05
Bovada🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -1.54%E -0.324%K -0.410%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -4.87%E -4.06%K -24.37%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-29 08:03
Hard Rock Bet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -1.54%E -0.324%K -0.410%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -5.67%E -4.76%K -29.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-29 08:00
Betway🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -1.54%E -0.324%K -0.410%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -6.46%E -5.47%K -35.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-29 08:05
FanDuel🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -2.57%E -0.548%K -0.696%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -6.46%E -5.47%K -35.89%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-29 07:49
Bet Right🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -4.65%E -1.01%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.87%E -4.06%K -24.37%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-29 08:00
SportsBet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -4.65%E -1.01%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -7.25%E -6.20%K -42.66%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-29 07:50
TAB🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -4.65%E -1.01%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 79.86%EV -8.05%E -6.94%K -50.28%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-29 08:00
Betr (AU)🎯4.55I 21.98%NM 20.73%EV -5.68%E -1.25%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -5.67%E -4.76%K -29.83%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-29 08:05
Marathon Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.72%E -1.49%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.87%E -4.06%K -24.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-29 08:01
William Hill🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.72%E -1.49%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.87%E -4.06%K -24.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-29 07:50
888sport🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.72%E -1.49%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.87%E -4.06%K -24.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-29 07:50
Unibet (UK)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.72%E -1.49%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.87%E -4.06%K -24.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-29 08:00
888sport (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.72%E -1.49%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.87%E -4.06%K -24.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-29 07:50
Winamax (DE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.72%E -1.49%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.87%E -4.06%K -24.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-29 08:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.72%E -1.49%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.87%E -4.06%K -24.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-29 07:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.72%E -1.49%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.87%E -4.06%K -24.37%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-29 07:55
Coral🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -6.72%E -1.49%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -6.46%E -5.47%K -35.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-29 08:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -6.72%E -1.49%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -6.46%E -5.47%K -35.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-29 08:05
Paddy Power🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -6.72%E -1.49%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.25%E -6.20%K -42.66%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-29 07:49
PMU (FR)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.21%EV -6.72%E -1.49%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 79.79%EV -9.63%E -8.45%K -68.79%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-29 08:00
theScore Bet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -8.79%E -2.00%K -2.59%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -6.46%E -5.47%K -35.89%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-29 08:00
LeoVegas🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -8.79%E -2.00%K -2.59%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -6.46%E -5.47%K -35.89%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-29 08:05
betano_uk🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -10.24%E -2.37%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.58%EV -6.46%E -5.47%K -35.89%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-29 08:03
Bet Victor🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -10.24%E -2.37%K -3.08%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.58%EV -6.46%E -5.47%K -35.89%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-29 08:03
Neds🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -12.94%E -3.08%K -4.04%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -4.87%E -4.06%K -24.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-29 08:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -12.94%E -3.08%K -4.04%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -4.87%E -4.06%K -24.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-29 08:04
Winamax (FR)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -17.08%E -4.27%K -5.69%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.37%EV -7.25%E -6.20%K -42.66%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-29 08:00
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.00I 20.00%NM 19.61%1.22I 81.97%NM 80.39%2.0%2026-09-29 07:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.00I 20.00%NM 19.61%1.22I 81.97%NM 80.39%2.0%2026-09-29 07:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.00I 20.00%NM 19.61%1.22I 81.97%NM 80.39%2.0%2026-09-29 07:50
Matchbook◎4.80I 20.83%NM 20.27%1.22I 81.97%NM 79.73%2.8%2026-09-29 07:55