Language:English
Carlos Alcaraz v Jaume Munar
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Carlos Alcaraz (Local)
Prediction 85.88%1.16fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -2.61%
Kelly -22.72%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.13
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.39%85.88%85.79%87.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.101.101.1394.34%90.66%90.91%88.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jaume Munar (Visit)
Prediction 14.12%7.08fair odd
EV +5.89%
Edge +0.785%
Kelly +0.906%
Growth +0.053%
assuming max odds 7.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.79%14.12%14.21%15.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.676.707.5016.67%15.00%14.93%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carlos Alcaraz (Local): 85.88%; Jaume Munar (Visit): 14.12%. For Jaume Munar (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.08. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.89%.
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.21%EV -5.53%E -5.03%K -55.31%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV +5.89%E +0.785%K +0.906%G +0.053% | 4.2% | 2026-10-04 19:33 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.48%EV -4.67%E -4.21%K -42.47%G +0.000% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 13.52%EV +0.243%E +0.034%K +0.040%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-05 06:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 86.10%EV -2.95%E -2.61%K -22.72%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.90%EV -1.17%E -0.167%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-10-05 07:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 86.21%EV -3.81%E -3.40%K -31.78%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.79%EV -1.17%E -0.167%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-10-05 05:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.67%E -4.21%K -42.47%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -1.17%E -0.167%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-04 20:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -4.67%E -4.21%K -42.47%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -1.17%E -0.167%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-04 16:08 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.53%E -5.03%K -55.31%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -1.17%E -0.167%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-05 06:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.53%E -5.03%K -55.31%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -1.17%E -0.167%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-05 00:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.53%E -5.03%K -55.31%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -1.17%E -0.167%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 18:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.53%E -5.03%K -55.31%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -1.17%E -0.167%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 18:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.53%E -5.03%K -55.31%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -1.17%E -0.167%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 18:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.53%E -5.03%K -55.31%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -1.17%E -0.167%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 18:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.53%E -5.03%K -55.31%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -1.17%E -0.167%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 18:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.53%E -5.03%K -55.31%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -1.17%E -0.167%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 18:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.53%E -5.03%K -55.31%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -1.17%E -0.167%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 18:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.53%E -5.03%K -55.31%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -1.17%E -0.167%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 18:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.53%E -5.03%K -55.31%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -1.17%E -0.167%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 18:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.53%E -5.03%K -55.31%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -1.17%E -0.167%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 18:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.53%E -5.03%K -55.31%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -1.17%E -0.167%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 18:21 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.53%E -5.03%K -55.31%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -1.17%E -0.167%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 18:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.53%E -5.03%K -55.31%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -1.17%E -0.167%K -0.195%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 18:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.48%EV -7.25%E -6.71%K -90.60%G +0.000% | 6.91I 14.47%NM 13.52%EV -2.44%E -0.353%K -0.413%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-04 21:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.96%EV -3.81%E -3.40%K -31.78%G +0.000% | 6.86I 14.58%NM 14.04%EV -3.15%E -0.458%K -0.537%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-05 01:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.96%EV -3.81%E -3.40%K -31.78%G +0.000% | 6.86I 14.58%NM 14.04%EV -3.15%E -0.458%K -0.537%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-10-05 01:20 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.08%EV -5.53%E -5.03%K -55.31%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.92%EV -3.99%E -0.587%K -0.688%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-05 06:01 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -4.67%E -4.21%K -42.47%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -4.70%E -0.696%K -0.817%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-04 20:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%EV -4.67%E -4.21%K -42.47%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%EV -5.40%E -0.807%K -0.948%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-04 20:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.90%EV -5.53%E -5.03%K -55.31%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.10%EV -5.40%E -0.807%K -0.948%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-05 07:06 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.23%EV -8.11%E -7.58%K -115.82%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.77%EV -5.40%E -0.807%K -0.948%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-04 20:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.71%EV -5.53%E -5.03%K -55.31%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.29%EV -6.82%E -1.03%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-04 20:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.71%EV -5.53%E -5.03%K -55.31%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.29%EV -6.82%E -1.03%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-04 20:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.71%EV -5.53%E -5.03%K -55.31%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.29%EV -6.82%E -1.03%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-05 07:04 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.58%EV -4.67%E -4.21%K -42.47%G +0.000% | 6.59I 15.17%NM 14.42%EV -6.96%E -1.06%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-05 02:36 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.51%EV -4.67%E -4.21%K -42.47%G +0.000% | 6.55I 15.27%NM 14.49%EV -7.52%E -1.15%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-05 02:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.34%EV -3.81%E -3.40%K -31.78%G +0.000% | 6.52I 15.34%NM 14.66%EV -7.95%E -1.22%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-05 06:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.67%E -4.21%K -42.47%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -8.23%E -1.27%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-05 06:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.67%E -4.21%K -42.47%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -8.23%E -1.27%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-05 05:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.67%E -4.21%K -42.47%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -8.23%E -1.27%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-05 06:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.67%E -4.21%K -42.47%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -8.23%E -1.27%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-05 06:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.67%E -4.21%K -42.47%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -8.23%E -1.27%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-05 06:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -4.67%E -4.21%K -42.47%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -8.23%E -1.27%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-05 06:51 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.53%E -5.03%K -55.31%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -8.23%E -1.27%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-04 18:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.53%E -5.03%K -55.31%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -8.23%E -1.27%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-04 16:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.53%E -5.03%K -55.31%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -8.23%E -1.27%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-04 16:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.53%E -5.03%K -55.31%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -8.23%E -1.27%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-04 16:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 85.98%EV -8.97%E -8.46%K -149.43%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -8.23%E -1.27%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-10-05 05:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.32%EV -4.67%E -4.21%K -42.47%G +0.000% | 6.45I 15.50%NM 14.68%EV -8.93%E -1.39%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-10-04 20:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 85.79%EV -8.97%E -8.46%K -149.43%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.21%EV -9.64%E -1.51%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-04 18:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -3.81%E -3.40%K -31.78%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -11.76%E -1.88%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-05 01:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -4.67%E -4.21%K -42.47%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -15.29%E -2.55%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-04 16:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -4.67%E -4.21%K -42.47%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -15.29%E -2.55%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-04 16:06 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -4.67%E -4.21%K -42.47%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -15.29%E -2.55%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-05 01:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -5.53%E -5.03%K -55.31%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -15.29%E -2.55%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-05 06:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -5.53%E -5.03%K -55.31%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -15.29%E -2.55%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-05 06:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -5.53%E -5.03%K -55.31%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -15.29%E -2.55%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-05 07:05 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -5.53%E -5.03%K -55.31%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -15.29%E -2.55%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-04 14:24 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -5.53%E -5.03%K -55.31%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -15.29%E -2.55%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-04 14:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.89% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.11% | 0.7% | 2026-10-05 06:51 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.89% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.11% | 0.7% | 2026-10-05 06:51 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.89% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 12.11% | 0.7% | 2026-10-05 06:56 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 86.43% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.57% | 2.4% | 2026-10-05 07:00 |