Modèle par défautMoyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Carlos Alcaraz v Jaume Munar

2026-10-05 07:00 UTC — ATP Japan Open

Résultat du match

55 opérateurs (19 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée)

Carlos Alcaraz (Local)

Prévision 86.78%1.15cote équitable
EV -3.67%
Avantage -3.31%
Kelly -33.41%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.11

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
83.46%86.73%86.53%88.61%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.051.091.091.1195.24%91.90%91.74%90.09%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Jaume Munar (Visiteur)

Prévision 13.22%7.56cote équitable
EV +11.05%
Avantage +1.32%
Kelly +1.49%
Croissance +0.165%

avec la cote maximale 8.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
11.39%13.27%13.47%16.54%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
5.407.027.008.4018.52%14.24%14.29%11.90%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.

Pour Résultat du match, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estime les probabilités suivantes : Carlos Alcaraz (Local) : 86.78% ; Jaume Munar (Visiteur) : 13.22%. Pour Jaume Munar (Visiteur), cette estimation équivaut à une cote décimale juste de 7.56. 11 opérateurs proposent une cote supérieure à ce seuil ; la meilleure cote disponible est 8.40, pour une espérance positive de +11.05%.

Cotes des opérateurs (55 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
FanDuel🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.61%EV -6.28%E -5.81%K -78.48%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.39%EV +11.05%E +1.32%K +1.49%G +0.165%4.5%2026-10-04 09:54
BetUS🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 88.15%EV -5.41%E -4.96%K -60.12%G +0.000%8.11I 12.33%NM 11.85%EV +7.22%E +0.890%K +1.02%G +0.073%4.1%2026-10-04 11:01
888sport🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -8.01%E -7.56%K -133.56%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV +5.77%E +0.721%K +0.824%G +0.047%6.8%2026-10-04 14:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -8.01%E -7.56%K -133.56%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV +5.77%E +0.721%K +0.824%G +0.047%6.8%2026-10-04 14:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -8.01%E -7.56%K -133.56%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV +5.77%E +0.721%K +0.824%G +0.047%6.8%2026-10-04 14:05
DraftKings🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.74%EV -5.41%E -4.96%K -60.12%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.26%EV +3.12%E +0.400%K +0.459%G +0.014%4.6%2026-10-04 07:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.14%EV -8.88%E -8.46%K -177.63%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.86%EV +3.12%E +0.400%K +0.459%G +0.014%8.1%2026-10-04 09:05
Bovada🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.67%EV -5.41%E -4.96%K -60.12%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.33%EV +2.46%E +0.317%K +0.364%G +0.009%4.6%2026-10-04 11:09
Pinnacle🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 87.37%EV -3.67%E -3.31%K -33.41%G +0.000%7.68I 13.02%NM 12.63%EV +1.53%E +0.200%K +0.230%G +0.004%3.1%2026-10-04 11:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 87.37%EV -4.54%E -4.13%K -45.43%G +0.000%7.61I 13.14%NM 12.63%EV +0.609%E +0.080%K +0.092%G +0.001%4.0%2026-10-04 13:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 87.37%EV -4.54%E -4.13%K -45.43%G +0.000%7.61I 13.14%NM 12.63%EV +0.609%E +0.080%K +0.092%G +0.001%4.0%2026-10-04 13:45
Fanatics🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 87.21%EV -4.54%E -4.13%K -45.43%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV -0.845%E -0.113%K -0.130%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-04 10:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -6.28%E -5.81%K -78.48%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -0.845%E -0.113%K -0.130%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-04 09:55
BoyleSports🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -6.28%E -5.81%K -78.48%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -0.845%E -0.113%K -0.130%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-04 10:31
William Hill🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -6.28%E -5.81%K -78.48%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -0.845%E -0.113%K -0.130%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-04 11:09
GTbets🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.08%EV -6.28%E -5.81%K -78.48%G +0.000%7.28I 13.74%NM 12.92%EV -3.75%E -0.516%K -0.598%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-04 13:06
Winamax (DE)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.93%EV -5.41%E -4.96%K -60.12%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.07%EV -4.15%E -0.572%K -0.664%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-04 09:45
Coolbet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.59%EV -4.54%E -4.13%K -45.43%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.41%EV -6.13%E -0.864%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-04 13:09
Betway🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.54%E -4.13%K -45.43%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -7.46%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-04 11:09
Bet Right🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.54%E -4.13%K -45.43%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -7.46%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-04 13:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.41%E -4.96%K -60.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -7.46%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-04 13:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.41%E -4.96%K -60.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -7.46%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-04 11:05
NordicBet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.41%E -4.96%K -60.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -7.46%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-04 10:00
Betsson🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.41%E -4.96%K -60.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -7.46%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-04 09:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.41%E -4.96%K -60.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -7.46%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-04 13:49
Coral🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.41%E -4.96%K -60.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -7.46%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-04 10:31
BetMGM🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.41%E -4.96%K -60.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -7.46%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-04 10:31
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.41%E -4.96%K -60.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -7.46%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-04 10:30
SportsBet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -7.15%E -6.68%K -102.09%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -7.46%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-04 09:55
Paddy Power🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -7.15%E -6.68%K -102.09%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -7.46%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-04 09:55
Sky Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -7.15%E -6.68%K -102.09%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -7.46%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-04 10:00
BetRivers🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -4.54%E -4.13%K -45.43%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -10.76%E -1.59%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-04 13:50
betPARX🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -4.54%E -4.13%K -45.43%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -10.76%E -1.59%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-04 13:49
ATG (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -4.54%E -4.13%K -45.43%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -10.76%E -1.59%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-04 13:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -4.54%E -4.13%K -45.43%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -10.76%E -1.59%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-04 13:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -4.54%E -4.13%K -45.43%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -10.76%E -1.59%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-04 13:49
Unibet (NL)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -4.54%E -4.13%K -45.43%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -10.76%E -1.59%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-04 13:50
TABtouch🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -4.54%E -4.13%K -45.43%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -10.76%E -1.59%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-04 13:50
Unibet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -4.54%E -4.13%K -45.43%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -10.76%E -1.59%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-04 13:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -4.54%E -4.13%K -45.43%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -10.76%E -1.59%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-04 13:50
Casumo🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -4.54%E -4.13%K -45.43%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -10.76%E -1.59%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-04 13:50
Grosvenor🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -4.54%E -4.13%K -45.43%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -10.76%E -1.59%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-04 13:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -4.54%E -4.13%K -45.43%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -10.76%E -1.59%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-04 13:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -4.54%E -4.13%K -45.43%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -10.76%E -1.59%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-04 13:50
theScore Bet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.10%EV -5.41%E -4.96%K -60.12%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV -10.76%E -1.59%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-04 09:50
LeoVegas🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.23%EV -7.15%E -6.68%K -102.09%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.77%EV -11.42%E -1.70%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-04 14:05
Neds🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.33%EV -4.54%E -4.13%K -45.43%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.67%EV -15.39%E -2.40%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-04 10:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.33%EV -4.54%E -4.13%K -45.43%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.67%EV -15.39%E -2.40%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-04 10:30
ReBet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.56%EV -6.28%E -5.81%K -78.48%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.44%EV -15.39%E -2.40%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-04 09:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.56%EV -6.28%E -5.81%K -78.48%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.44%EV -15.39%E -2.40%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-04 09:58
PMU (FR)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.38%EV -7.15%E -6.68%K -102.09%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.62%EV -17.37%E -2.78%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-04 13:50
betano_uk🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -4.54%E -4.13%K -45.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -20.68%E -3.45%K -4.14%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 13:08
Bet Victor🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -4.54%E -4.13%K -45.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -20.68%E -3.45%K -4.14%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 13:11
Winamax (FR)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 84.43%EV -7.15%E -6.68%K -102.09%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.57%EV -23.32%E -4.02%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-04 09:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 83.46%EV -7.15%E -6.68%K -102.09%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.54%EV -28.61%E -5.30%K -6.50%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-04 09:55
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (4)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 88.39%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.61%0.1%2026-10-04 13:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 88.39%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.61%0.1%2026-10-04 13:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 88.39%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.61%0.1%2026-10-04 13:35
Matchbook◎1.12I 89.29%NM 88.48%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.52%0.9%2026-10-04 12:45