Language:English
Carlos Alcaraz v Denis Shapovalov
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Carlos Alcaraz (Local)
Prediction 85.56%1.17fair odd
EV +0.104%
Edge +0.089%
Kelly +0.613%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 1.17
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.04%85.42%85.47%87.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.071.111.111.1793.46%90.13%90.09%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Denis Shapovalov (Visit)
Prediction 14.44%6.92fair odd
EV +8.31%
Edge +1.11%
Kelly +1.28%
Growth +0.106%
assuming max odds 7.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.89%14.58%14.53%18.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.006.386.507.5020.00%15.66%15.38%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carlos Alcaraz (Local): 85.56%; Denis Shapovalov (Visit): 14.44%. For Denis Shapovalov (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.92. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.31%.
Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 87.11%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.89%EV +8.31%E +1.11%K +1.28%G +0.106% | 3.4% | 2026-10-04 03:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.88%E -5.35%K -58.85%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +1.09%E +0.155%K +0.181%G +0.002% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 21:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.88%E -5.35%K -58.85%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +1.09%E +0.155%K +0.181%G +0.002% | 5.2% | 2026-10-03 12:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.88%E -5.35%K -58.85%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +1.09%E +0.155%K +0.181%G +0.002% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 03:51 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.88%E -5.35%K -58.85%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +1.09%E +0.155%K +0.181%G +0.002% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 03:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.88%E -5.35%K -58.85%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +1.09%E +0.155%K +0.181%G +0.002% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 03:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.88%E -5.35%K -58.85%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +1.09%E +0.155%K +0.181%G +0.002% | 5.2% | 2026-10-04 03:51 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.14%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.86%EV -0.358%E -0.052%K -0.061%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-10-04 03:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -2.52%E -0.374%K -0.439%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-04 03:01 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -2.52%E -0.374%K -0.439%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-04 03:01 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.82%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 6.72I 14.88%NM 14.18%EV -2.96%E -0.440%K -0.517%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-04 03:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%EV -3.25%E -0.485%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-04 03:01 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.23%EV -8.45%E -7.90%K -120.74%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.77%EV -3.25%E -0.485%K -0.570%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-03 17:25 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.49%EV -4.17%E -3.73%K -34.78%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.51%EV -4.69%E -0.711%K -0.838%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-04 01:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.71%EV -5.88%E -5.35%K -58.85%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.29%EV -4.69%E -0.711%K -0.838%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-04 03:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.47%EV -4.17%E -3.73%K -34.78%G +0.000% | 6.59I 15.17%NM 14.53%EV -4.83%E -0.734%K -0.865%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-04 00:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.47%EV -4.17%E -3.73%K -34.78%G +0.000% | 6.59I 15.17%NM 14.53%EV -4.83%E -0.734%K -0.865%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-10-04 00:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.58%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 6.59I 15.17%NM 14.42%EV -4.83%E -0.734%K -0.865%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-04 03:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.58%EV -5.88%E -5.35%K -58.85%G +0.000% | 6.53I 15.31%NM 14.42%EV -5.70%E -0.873%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-03 17:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.17%E -3.73%K -34.78%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -6.13%E -0.944%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-03 21:05 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.17%E -3.73%K -34.78%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -6.13%E -0.944%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-04 03:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -6.13%E -0.944%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-04 01:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -6.13%E -0.944%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 19:11 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -6.13%E -0.944%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 19:11 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -6.13%E -0.944%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 19:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -6.13%E -0.944%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 19:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -6.13%E -0.944%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 19:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -6.13%E -0.944%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 19:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -6.13%E -0.944%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 19:11 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -6.13%E -0.944%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 19:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -6.13%E -0.944%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 19:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -6.13%E -0.944%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 19:08 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -6.13%E -0.944%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 19:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -6.13%E -0.944%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 19:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -6.13%E -0.944%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-03 19:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -6.13%E -0.944%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-04 03:11 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -6.13%E -0.944%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-04 03:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.88%E -5.35%K -58.85%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -6.13%E -0.944%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-04 03:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.45%EV -6.74%E -6.18%K -74.90%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.55%EV -7.58%E -1.18%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-04 03:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.12%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 6.35I 15.75%NM 14.88%EV -8.30%E -1.31%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-04 03:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -9.74%E -1.56%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-04 03:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.82%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.18%EV -10.47%E -1.69%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-04 01:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.82%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.18%EV -10.47%E -1.69%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-10-04 01:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.17%E -3.73%K -34.78%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -13.35%E -2.23%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-03 17:31 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -13.35%E -2.23%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-03 17:53 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.03%E -4.53%K -45.72%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -13.35%E -2.23%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-04 00:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 84.87%EV -8.45%E -7.90%K -120.74%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.13%EV -13.35%E -2.23%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-04 01:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 84.87%EV -8.45%E -7.90%K -120.74%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.13%EV -13.35%E -2.23%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-03 19:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -4.17%E -3.73%K -34.78%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -16.96%E -2.95%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-04 03:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -4.17%E -3.73%K -34.78%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -16.96%E -2.95%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-04 03:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -4.17%E -3.73%K -34.78%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -20.58%E -3.74%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-03 17:26 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -4.17%E -3.73%K -34.78%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -20.58%E -3.74%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-03 17:31 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 83.20%EV -6.74%E -6.18%K -74.90%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.80%EV -22.02%E -4.08%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-04 01:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.02%EV -2.46%E -2.16%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV -24.91%E -4.79%K -5.93%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-04 03:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV +0.104%E +0.089%K +0.613%G +0.001% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -27.80%E -5.56%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-04 03:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -2.46%E -2.16%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -27.80%E -5.56%K -6.95%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-04 03:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 88.48% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.52% | 0.9% | 2026-10-04 03:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 88.48% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.52% | 0.9% | 2026-10-04 03:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 88.48% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.52% | 0.9% | 2026-10-04 03:51 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 88.48% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.52% | 0.9% | 2026-10-04 03:55 |