Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Carlos Alcaraz v Denis Shapovalov

2026-10-04 04:00 UTC — ATP Japan Open

Frente a frente

54 casas de apostas (19 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Carlos Alcaraz (Local)

Previsão 86.25%1.16odd justa
EV -4.26%
Vantagem -3.84%
Kelly -38.76%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.11

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
83.20%86.30%86.25%88.36%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.071.101.101.1193.46%91.12%90.91%90.09%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Denis Shapovalov (Visitante)

Previsão 13.75%7.27odd justa
EV +12.76%
Vantagem +1.56%
Kelly +1.77%
Crescimento +0.226%

pressupondo odds máximas de 8.20

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
11.64%13.70%13.75%16.80%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
5.306.816.758.2018.87%14.69%14.81%12.20%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Frente a frente, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Carlos Alcaraz (Local): 86.25%; Denis Shapovalov (Visitante): 13.75%. Para Denis Shapovalov (Visitante), essa estimativa equivale a odds decimais justas de 7.27. 7 casas de apostas oferecem odds acima desse nível; as melhores odds disponíveis são 8.20, produzindo um valor esperado positivo de +12.76%.

Odds das casas de apostas (54 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
FanDuel🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.36%EV -6.85%E -6.34%K -85.64%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.64%EV +12.76%E +1.56%K +1.77%G +0.226%4.8%2026-10-03 13:00
Betway🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -6.85%E -6.34%K -85.64%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +10.01%E +1.25%K +1.43%G +0.143%5.1%2026-10-03 13:35
Pinnacle🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 87.54%EV -5.13%E -4.66%K -51.27%G +0.000%7.73I 12.94%NM 12.46%EV +6.30%E +0.815%K +0.936%G +0.059%3.8%2026-10-03 11:45
DraftKings🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.60%EV -5.99%E -5.49%K -66.55%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 12.40%EV +5.89%E +0.764%K +0.879%G +0.052%4.7%2026-10-03 10:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 87.37%EV -5.13%E -4.66%K -51.27%G +0.000%7.61I 13.14%NM 12.63%EV +4.65%E +0.611%K +0.703%G +0.033%4.0%2026-10-03 12:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 87.37%EV -5.13%E -4.66%K -51.27%G +0.000%7.61I 13.14%NM 12.63%EV +4.65%E +0.611%K +0.703%G +0.033%4.0%2026-10-03 13:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -6.85%E -6.34%K -85.64%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV +3.14%E +0.418%K +0.482%G +0.015%5.9%2026-10-03 13:00
Fanatics🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.64%EV -4.26%E -3.84%K -38.76%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.36%EV -0.990%E -0.137%K -0.160%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-03 11:46
Coolbet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.59%EV -5.13%E -4.66%K -51.27%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.41%EV -2.36%E -0.333%K -0.388%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-03 11:46
Bet Right🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.13%E -4.66%K -51.27%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -3.74%E -0.534%K -0.623%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-03 11:45
BoyleSports🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.13%E -4.66%K -51.27%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -3.74%E -0.534%K -0.623%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-03 12:10
888sport🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.13%E -4.66%K -51.27%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -3.74%E -0.534%K -0.623%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-03 11:40
William Hill🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.13%E -4.66%K -51.27%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -3.74%E -0.534%K -0.623%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-03 11:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.13%E -4.66%K -51.27%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -3.74%E -0.534%K -0.623%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-03 11:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.13%E -4.66%K -51.27%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -3.74%E -0.534%K -0.623%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-03 11:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.13%E -4.66%K -51.27%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -3.74%E -0.534%K -0.623%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-03 11:45
Coral🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.13%E -4.66%K -51.27%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -3.74%E -0.534%K -0.623%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-03 11:46
Betr (AU)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.99%E -5.49%K -66.55%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -3.74%E -0.534%K -0.623%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-03 13:40
SportsBet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -6.85%E -6.34%K -85.64%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -3.74%E -0.534%K -0.623%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-03 12:59
Paddy Power🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -7.71%E -7.21%K -110.20%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -3.74%E -0.534%K -0.623%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-03 13:00
Sky Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -7.71%E -7.21%K -110.20%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -3.74%E -0.534%K -0.623%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-03 13:10
GTbets🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.28%EV -5.13%E -4.66%K -51.27%G +0.000%6.92I 14.45%NM 13.72%EV -4.84%E -0.699%K -0.818%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-03 12:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.25%EV -5.13%E -4.66%K -51.27%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.75%EV -5.11%E -0.741%K -0.867%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-03 13:30
TABtouch🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -4.26%E -3.84%K -38.76%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -7.18%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-03 12:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -4.26%E -3.84%K -38.76%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -7.18%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-03 12:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -4.26%E -3.84%K -38.76%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -7.18%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-03 12:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -4.26%E -3.84%K -38.76%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -7.18%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-03 12:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -4.26%E -3.84%K -38.76%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -7.18%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-03 12:45
Grosvenor🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -4.26%E -3.84%K -38.76%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -7.18%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-03 12:45
Casumo🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -4.26%E -3.84%K -38.76%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -7.18%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-03 12:45
Unibet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -4.26%E -3.84%K -38.76%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -7.18%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-03 12:45
BetRivers🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -4.26%E -3.84%K -38.76%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -7.18%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-03 12:45
betPARX🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -4.26%E -3.84%K -38.76%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -7.18%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-03 12:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -4.26%E -3.84%K -38.76%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -7.18%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-03 12:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -4.26%E -3.84%K -38.76%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -7.18%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-03 12:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -4.26%E -3.84%K -38.76%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -7.18%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-03 12:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -5.13%E -4.66%K -51.27%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -7.18%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-03 11:46
BetMGM🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -5.13%E -4.66%K -51.27%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -7.18%E -1.06%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-03 11:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.71%EV -5.13%E -4.66%K -51.27%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.29%EV -9.24%E -1.40%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-03 11:44
NordicBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.71%EV -5.13%E -4.66%K -51.27%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.29%EV -9.24%E -1.40%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-03 11:46
Betsson🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.71%EV -5.13%E -4.66%K -51.27%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.29%EV -9.24%E -1.40%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-03 11:46
Unibet (UK)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.13%E -4.66%K -51.27%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -10.62%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-03 11:46
TAB🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -5.99%E -5.49%K -66.55%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -10.62%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-03 12:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -6.85%E -6.34%K -85.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -10.62%E -1.63%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-03 11:45
theScore Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.33%EV -5.13%E -4.66%K -51.27%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.67%EV -11.99%E -1.87%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-03 11:46
LeoVegas🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.56%EV -6.85%E -6.34%K -85.64%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.44%EV -11.99%E -1.87%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-03 13:35
Neds🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.82%EV -4.26%E -3.84%K -38.76%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.18%EV -14.74%E -2.38%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-03 11:46
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.82%EV -4.26%E -3.84%K -38.76%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.18%EV -14.74%E -2.38%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-03 11:46
ReBet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.05%EV -5.99%E -5.49%K -66.55%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.95%EV -14.74%E -2.38%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-03 11:45
PMU (FR)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.08%EV -7.71%E -7.21%K -110.20%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.92%EV -16.12%E -2.64%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-03 09:41
Bet Victor🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -5.13%E -4.66%K -51.27%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -17.49%E -2.92%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-03 11:45
betano_uk🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -5.13%E -4.66%K -51.27%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -17.49%E -2.92%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-03 11:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.07%EV -6.85%E -6.34%K -85.64%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.93%EV -21.62%E -3.79%K -4.60%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-03 11:46
Unibet (FR)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 83.20%EV -7.71%E -7.21%K -110.20%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.80%EV -27.12%E -5.12%K -6.31%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-03 11:46
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎1.12I 89.29%NM 88.71%8.80I 11.36%NM 11.29%0.6%2026-10-03 13:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 88.48%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.52%0.9%2026-10-03 12:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 88.48%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.52%0.9%2026-10-03 12:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 88.48%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.52%0.9%2026-10-03 12:30