Language:English
Thiago Agustin Tirante v Daniil Medvedev
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Thiago Agustin Tirante (Local)
Prediction 43.19%2.32fair odd
EV +0.630%
Edge +0.270%
Kelly +0.474%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 2.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.79%43.05%43.23%46.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.182.202.3350.00%45.89%45.45%42.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Daniil Medvedev (Visit)
Prediction 56.81%1.76fair odd
EV +0.556%
Edge +0.314%
Kelly +0.722%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 1.77
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.62%56.95%56.77%59.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.671.671.7764.52%59.81%59.70%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Thiago Agustin Tirante (Local): 43.19%; Daniil Medvedev (Visit): 56.81%. For Thiago Agustin Tirante (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.32. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.33, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.630%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -9.30%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV +0.556%E +0.314%K +0.722%G +0.004% | 4.1% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.97%EV -10.17%E -4.89%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.03%EV +0.556%E +0.314%K +0.722%G +0.004% | 4.6% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.30%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.70%EV -0.581%E -0.332%K -0.774%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 44.27%EV -5.42%E -2.47%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.73%EV -1.15%E -0.660%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -6.71%E -3.11%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -1.15%E -0.660%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-12 19:46 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -6.71%E -3.11%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -1.15%E -0.660%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.30%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.72%E -0.992%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -13.62%E -6.81%K -13.62%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -1.72%E -0.992%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -2.85%E -1.67%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.82%EV -1.96%E -0.864%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.18%EV -3.42%E -2.01%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-05-12 19:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.42%E -2.01%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -8.44%E -3.98%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -3.42%E -2.01%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -9.30%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -3.42%E -2.01%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -3.99%E -2.36%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -3.99%E -2.36%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-12 19:44 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -11.46%E -5.59%K -10.92%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -3.99%E -2.36%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -3.69%E -1.65%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-12 19:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-12 19:46 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-12 19:46 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.56%E -2.71%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.82%E -1.26%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.13%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -4.12%E -1.86%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -5.13%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-12 19:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.13%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-12 19:37 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.13%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.13%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.13%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.30%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.13%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-12 19:44 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.30%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.13%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-12 19:39 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.30%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.13%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-12 19:44 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.30%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.13%E -3.07%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-12 19:44 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -5.69%E -3.43%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-12 19:38 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.12%EV -5.42%E -2.47%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.88%EV -5.69%E -3.43%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-12 19:41 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -5.85%E -2.68%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -5.69%E -3.43%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.82%E -1.26%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.26%E -3.79%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-12 19:44 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%EV -6.71%E -3.11%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.69%EV -6.26%E -3.79%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-12 19:46 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.31%EV -6.71%E -3.11%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.69%EV -6.26%E -3.79%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.26%E -3.79%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.26%E -3.79%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-12 19:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -9.30%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.26%E -3.79%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -9.30%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.26%E -3.79%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -9.30%E -4.43%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.26%E -3.79%K -9.63%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-12 19:46 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.01%EV +0.630%E +0.270%K +0.474%G +0.003% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.99%EV -7.97%E -4.92%K -12.85%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.28%EV -1.10%E -0.479%K -0.851%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.72%EV -8.53%E -5.30%K -13.99%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -7.14%E -3.32%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.18%EV -8.53%E -5.30%K -13.99%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -0.665%E -0.289%K -0.512%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -9.10%E -5.69%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-12 19:46 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -0.665%E -0.289%K -0.512%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -9.10%E -5.69%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -4.98%E -2.27%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -9.10%E -5.69%K -15.17%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -0.665%E -0.289%K -0.512%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -9.67%E -6.08%K -16.39%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-12 19:46 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -0.665%E -0.289%K -0.512%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -9.67%E -6.08%K -16.39%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -2.82%E -1.26%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -11.94%E -7.71%K -21.71%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-12 19:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.70% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.30% | 0.4% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79% | 0.6% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79% | 0.6% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79% | 0.6% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.44% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 55.56% | 2.3% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |
| Novig◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.67% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 55.33% | 2.7% | 2026-05-12 19:45 |