Language:English
Mattia Bellucci v Martin Landaluce
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Mattia Bellucci (Local)
Prediction 51.37%1.95fair odd
EV -2.40%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -2.67%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%51.40%51.41%53.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.841.851.9057.14%54.21%54.05%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Martin Landaluce (Visit)
Prediction 48.63%2.06fair odd
EV -1.77%
Edge -0.874%
Kelly -1.73%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.02
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.95%48.60%48.59%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.871.941.932.0253.48%51.56%51.81%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mattia Bellucci (Local): 51.37%; Martin Landaluce (Visit): 48.63%. For Martin Landaluce (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.06. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.02, with an expected value of -1.77%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -2.40%E -1.26%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -2.25%E -1.12%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-05-11 08:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -3.43%E -1.82%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -6.14%E -3.18%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-10 21:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.43%E -1.82%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.63%E -3.45%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 19:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.43%E -1.82%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.63%E -3.45%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 19:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.43%E -1.82%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.63%E -3.45%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 19:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.43%E -1.82%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.63%E -3.45%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 06:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.43%E -1.82%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.63%E -3.45%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 06:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.43%E -1.82%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.63%E -3.45%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 06:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.43%E -1.82%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.63%E -3.45%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 19:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.43%E -1.82%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.63%E -3.45%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 19:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.43%E -1.82%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.63%E -3.45%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 19:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.43%E -1.82%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.63%E -3.45%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 19:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.43%E -1.82%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.63%E -3.45%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 19:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.43%E -1.82%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.63%E -3.45%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 19:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.43%E -1.82%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.63%E -3.45%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 19:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.93%EV -3.94%E -2.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.07%EV -1.77%E -0.874%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-11 08:54 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.94%E -2.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.17%E -2.65%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-10 21:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.94%E -2.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.17%E -2.65%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-10 21:44 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -3.94%E -2.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -6.14%E -3.18%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 08:34 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -3.94%E -2.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -7.11%E -3.72%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-10 19:23 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -3.94%E -2.11%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -9.06%E -4.84%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-10 09:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 51.81%EV -4.45%E -2.39%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.19%EV -2.74%E -1.37%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-11 06:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -4.97%E -2.69%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -4.68%E -2.39%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-11 03:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -4.97%E -2.69%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -4.68%E -2.39%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-11 03:24 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -4.97%E -2.69%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -4.68%E -2.39%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-11 08:09 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -4.97%E -2.69%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -4.68%E -2.39%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-11 03:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.97%E -2.69%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.17%E -2.65%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 06:54 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.97%E -2.69%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.17%E -2.65%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 06:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.97%E -2.69%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.17%E -2.65%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 08:34 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.97%E -2.69%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.17%E -2.65%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 06:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.97%E -2.69%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.17%E -2.65%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 21:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.97%E -2.69%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.17%E -2.65%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 06:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.97%E -2.69%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.17%E -2.65%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 06:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -4.97%E -2.69%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -6.14%E -3.18%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-11 07:09 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.53%EV -4.97%E -2.69%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.47%EV -8.09%E -4.28%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-10 19:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.53%EV -4.97%E -2.69%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.47%EV -8.09%E -4.28%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-10 19:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.53%EV -4.97%E -2.69%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.47%EV -8.09%E -4.28%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-10 19:25 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.71%EV -5.48%E -2.98%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.29%EV -4.20%E -2.13%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 20:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%EV -5.48%E -2.98%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%EV -4.68%E -2.39%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-11 06:54 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.32%EV -5.48%E -2.98%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.68%EV -5.66%E -2.92%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-11 03:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.99%E -3.28%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.74%E -1.37%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-11 08:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.99%E -3.28%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.74%E -1.37%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-11 08:29 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.99%E -3.28%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.74%E -1.37%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-11 07:34 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.99%E -3.28%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.17%E -2.65%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-10 21:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.99%E -3.28%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.11%E -3.72%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-11 03:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.99%E -3.28%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.11%E -3.72%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-11 01:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.94%EV -5.99%E -3.28%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.06%EV -7.60%E -4.00%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-11 03:24 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -6.51%E -3.58%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -1.77%E -0.874%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-11 08:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -6.51%E -3.58%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -1.77%E -0.874%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-11 08:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.47%EV -6.51%E -3.58%K -7.94%G +0.000% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.53%EV -6.14%E -3.18%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-11 08:09 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%EV -7.02%E -3.88%K -8.67%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -4.20%E -2.13%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-11 08:54 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.61%EV -7.54%E -4.19%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.39%EV -6.63%E -3.45%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-10 21:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.61%EV -7.54%E -4.19%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.39%EV -6.63%E -3.45%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-10 21:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.54%E -4.19%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.11%E -3.72%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-11 08:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.54%E -4.19%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.11%E -3.72%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-11 08:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.54%E -4.19%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.11%E -3.72%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-11 03:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.54%E -4.19%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.11%E -3.72%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-10 21:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.54%E -4.19%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.11%E -3.72%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-10 21:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.54%E -4.19%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.11%E -3.72%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-11 03:35 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -7.54%E -4.19%K -9.42%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -7.60%E -4.00%K -8.45%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-11 08:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -9.08%E -5.13%K -11.79%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -2.74%E -1.37%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-11 08:24 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -10.10%E -5.77%K -13.47%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -5.17%E -2.65%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-10 22:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 52.00% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 48.00% | 0.2% | 2026-05-11 08:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.13% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.87% | 0.4% | 2026-05-11 08:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.13% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.87% | 0.4% | 2026-05-11 08:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.13% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.87% | 0.4% | 2026-05-11 08:54 |
| Novig◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.41% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 47.59% | 1.5% | 2026-05-11 08:54 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.09% | 1.9% | 2026-05-11 08:39 |