Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Mattia Bellucci v Martin Landaluce

Início: 2026-05-11 09:00 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

62 casas de apostas (23 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Mattia Bellucci (Local)

Previsão 51.37%1.95odd justa
EV -2.40%
Vantagem -1.26%
Kelly -2.67%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.90

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
50.00%51.40%51.41%53.05%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.751.841.851.9057.14%54.21%54.05%52.63%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Martin Landaluce (Visitante)

Previsão 48.63%2.06odd justa
EV -1.77%
Vantagem -0.874%
Kelly -1.73%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.02

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
46.95%48.60%48.59%50.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.871.941.932.0253.48%51.56%51.81%49.50%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Mattia Bellucci (Local): 51.37%; Martin Landaluce (Visitante): 48.63%. Para Martin Landaluce (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 2.06. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 2.02, com valor esperado de -1.77%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (62 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV -2.40%E -1.26%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -2.25%E -1.12%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-11 08:14
DraftKings🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -3.43%E -1.82%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -6.14%E -3.18%K -6.60%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-10 21:29
TABtouch🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.43%E -1.82%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.63%E -3.45%K -7.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-10 19:24
LeoVegas🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.43%E -1.82%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.63%E -3.45%K -7.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-10 19:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.43%E -1.82%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.63%E -3.45%K -7.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-10 19:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.43%E -1.82%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.63%E -3.45%K -7.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-11 06:40
BetRivers🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.43%E -1.82%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.63%E -3.45%K -7.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-11 06:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.43%E -1.82%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.63%E -3.45%K -7.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-11 06:40
Unibet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.43%E -1.82%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.63%E -3.45%K -7.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-10 19:24
Grosvenor🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.43%E -1.82%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.63%E -3.45%K -7.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-10 19:25
Casumo🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.43%E -1.82%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.63%E -3.45%K -7.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-10 19:25
betPARX🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.43%E -1.82%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.63%E -3.45%K -7.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-10 19:24
ATG (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.43%E -1.82%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.63%E -3.45%K -7.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-10 19:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.43%E -1.82%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.63%E -3.45%K -7.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-10 19:25
Bally Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -3.43%E -1.82%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -6.63%E -3.45%K -7.20%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-10 19:25
Coolbet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.93%EV -3.94%E -2.11%K -4.53%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.07%EV -1.77%E -0.874%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-11 08:54
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.94%E -2.11%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.17%E -2.65%K -5.44%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-10 21:45
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.94%E -2.11%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.17%E -2.65%K -5.44%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-10 21:44
Bet Right🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -3.94%E -2.11%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -6.14%E -3.18%K -6.60%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-11 08:34
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.53%EV -3.94%E -2.11%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -7.11%E -3.72%K -7.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-10 19:23
Caesars🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -3.94%E -2.11%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -9.06%E -4.84%K -10.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-10 09:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.81%EV -4.45%E -2.39%K -5.18%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.19%EV -2.74%E -1.37%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-11 06:54
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -4.97%E -2.69%K -5.84%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -4.68%E -2.39%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-11 03:25
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -4.97%E -2.69%K -5.84%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -4.68%E -2.39%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-11 03:24
ReBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -4.97%E -2.69%K -5.84%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -4.68%E -2.39%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-11 08:09
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -4.97%E -2.69%K -5.84%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -4.68%E -2.39%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-11 03:24
Betway🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.97%E -2.69%K -5.84%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.17%E -2.65%K -5.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-11 06:54
TAB🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.97%E -2.69%K -5.84%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.17%E -2.65%K -5.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-11 06:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.97%E -2.69%K -5.84%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.17%E -2.65%K -5.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-11 08:34
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.97%E -2.69%K -5.84%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.17%E -2.65%K -5.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-11 06:30
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.97%E -2.69%K -5.84%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.17%E -2.65%K -5.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-10 21:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.97%E -2.69%K -5.84%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.17%E -2.65%K -5.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-11 06:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.97%E -2.69%K -5.84%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.17%E -2.65%K -5.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-11 06:35
PlayUp🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -4.97%E -2.69%K -5.84%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -6.14%E -3.18%K -6.60%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-11 07:09
LiveScore Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.53%EV -4.97%E -2.69%K -5.84%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.47%EV -8.09%E -4.28%K -9.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-10 19:24
Virgin Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.53%EV -4.97%E -2.69%K -5.84%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.47%EV -8.09%E -4.28%K -9.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-10 19:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.53%EV -4.97%E -2.69%K -5.84%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.47%EV -8.09%E -4.28%K -9.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-10 19:25
GTbets🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.71%EV -5.48%E -2.98%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.29%EV -4.20%E -2.13%K -4.33%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 20:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%EV -5.48%E -2.98%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%EV -4.68%E -2.39%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-11 06:54
Codere (IT)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.32%EV -5.48%E -2.98%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.68%EV -5.66%E -2.92%K -6.02%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-11 03:25
SportsBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.99%E -3.28%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.74%E -1.37%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-11 08:29
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.99%E -3.28%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.74%E -1.37%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-11 08:29
BetOnline.ag🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.99%E -3.28%K -7.22%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.74%E -1.37%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-11 07:34
BetMGM🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -5.99%E -3.28%K -7.22%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -5.17%E -2.65%K -5.44%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-10 21:30
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.99%E -3.28%K -7.22%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.11%E -3.72%K -7.82%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-11 03:25
BetUS🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.99%E -3.28%K -7.22%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.11%E -3.72%K -7.82%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-11 01:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.94%EV -5.99%E -3.28%K -7.22%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.06%EV -7.60%E -4.00%K -8.45%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-11 03:24
1xBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -6.51%E -3.58%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -1.77%E -0.874%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-11 08:54
LowVig.ag🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -6.51%E -3.58%K -7.94%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -1.77%E -0.874%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-11 08:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.47%EV -6.51%E -3.58%K -7.94%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.53%EV -6.14%E -3.18%K -6.60%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-11 08:09
Betclic (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%EV -7.02%E -3.88%K -8.67%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -4.20%E -2.13%K -4.33%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-11 08:54
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.61%EV -7.54%E -4.19%K -9.42%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.39%EV -6.63%E -3.45%K -7.20%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-10 21:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.61%EV -7.54%E -4.19%K -9.42%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.39%EV -6.63%E -3.45%K -7.20%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-10 21:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.54%E -4.19%K -9.42%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.11%E -3.72%K -7.82%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-11 08:55
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.54%E -4.19%K -9.42%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.11%E -3.72%K -7.82%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-11 08:25
Fliff🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.54%E -4.19%K -9.42%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.11%E -3.72%K -7.82%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-11 03:34
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.54%E -4.19%K -9.42%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.11%E -3.72%K -7.82%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-10 21:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.54%E -4.19%K -9.42%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.11%E -3.72%K -7.82%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-10 21:29
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.54%E -4.19%K -9.42%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.11%E -3.72%K -7.82%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-11 03:35
Everygame🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -7.54%E -4.19%K -9.42%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -7.60%E -4.00%K -8.45%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-11 08:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -9.08%E -5.13%K -11.79%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -2.74%E -1.37%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-11 08:24
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -10.10%E -5.77%K -13.47%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -5.17%E -2.65%K -5.44%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-10 22:34
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.92I 52.08%NM 52.00%2.08I 48.08%NM 48.00%0.2%2026-05-11 08:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.91I 52.36%NM 52.13%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.87%0.4%2026-05-11 08:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 52.13%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.87%0.4%2026-05-11 08:55
Matchbook1.91I 52.36%NM 52.13%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.87%0.4%2026-05-11 08:54
Novig1.88I 53.19%NM 52.41%2.07I 48.31%NM 47.59%1.5%2026-05-11 08:54
Smarkets1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.09%1.9%2026-05-11 08:39